Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Viacheslav0.428570.2142913.52295.17860227.371001468311
2Deslock Rankings0.670210.4623711.8131-0.41180209.475009463314350
3Bihl Rankings0.663370.5000011.29790.26430186.4740010167345050
4Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
5Game Time Decision0.632080.5252511.02850.15110178.5850010667395247
6Sports Report Pred0.690480.5120011.9143-1.52570235.4930012687396461
7Upset Report0.669420.4957311.2612-2.00660202.8740012181405859
8Sports Report Elo0.682540.4960012.2609-1.30500227.0320012686406263
9Line (updated)0.7007310.8358-0.73360177.841001379641
10Computer Adjusted Line0.700730.4651210.8796-0.71900178.4690013796412023
11Ed Bemiss0.676920.5238111.0984-0.87220190.4980013088426660
12Dwiggins0.676920.4728711.7077-0.42920207.7920013088426168
13Jeff Self0.634780.4912311.2537-0.31040193.1860011573425658
14The Sports Report0.666670.4960011.7728-1.56130208.5240012684426263
15Line (opening)0.686130.4693910.9745-0.60220179.4590013794434652
16TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
17ARGH Power Ratings0.644630.4910711.5702-1.25620197.2210012178435557
18Grid Iron Gold0.627120.4955812.0676-1.49980225.6040011874445657
19CPA Retro Rankings0.678830.4926511.07070.44640191.5360013793446769
20TSR Slots0.650790.5040012.1663-1.49720237.1480012682446362
21What If Sports0.650790.4720011.8233-0.30060204.5560012682445966
22Eric Hollobaugh0.678830.5073511.4691-0.13480198.5390013793446967
23Sonny Moore0.671530.4926511.4588-1.20660196.7170013792456769
24Pythagorean Ratings0.671530.5147111.2247-1.06580193.5890013792457066
25Kambour Rating0.671530.5147111.0061-0.81280185.2150013792457066
26NutShell Retro0.664230.5220611.1920-0.90940188.7690013791467165
27Sagarin0.664230.5185211.2663-1.02310192.0710013791467065
28PerformanZ Ratings0.664230.5147111.3406-1.48230196.0850013791467066
29Reistertown Index0.664230.4803111.5255-0.95620200.0590013791466166
30Sport Trends0.664230.5000011.5919-2.64150211.8050013791466868
31Brian Gabrielle0.651520.4758111.3411-0.10560191.0640013286465965
32Pigskin Herald0.654410.4850711.7956-1.24410201.4080013689476569
33CPA Rankings0.656930.5220611.10010.41070186.8820013790477165
34Michael Robert Ratings0.656930.5147111.16260.04390191.4850013790477066
35Stat Fox0.656930.5360011.44520.20470194.6570013790476758
36Beck Elo0.656930.4485311.3983-1.04360194.8090013790476175
37Jeff Imes0.649640.5147111.5583-0.06390204.9610013789487066
38Hank Trexler0.649640.4961211.0365-0.89050184.2720013789486465
39Sourjax0.649640.5037011.10720.38420191.9750013789486867
40Roger Johnson0.649640.5441211.1088-1.33210186.6690013789487462
41Mike Greenfield0.649640.5147111.2591-1.85910191.9060013789487066
42Ashby AccuRatings0.649640.4761911.26280.15360188.3850013789486066
43Least Squares0.649640.5073511.4682-1.53200194.5590013789486967
44Logistic Regression0.649640.5220611.4815-2.45570204.8290013789487165
45Sagarin Elo0.649640.4485311.5644-0.99200200.8200013789486175
46Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4586511.4912-1.43580195.7620013788496172
47System Average0.642340.5367611.0929-0.67950183.1260013788497363
48JFM Power Ratings0.642340.5514711.1091-0.19400184.3940013788497561
49Pigskin Index0.642340.5454511.11690.00770186.0060013788496655
50System Median0.642340.5037011.1185-0.64190185.0070013788496867
51John Coffey0.642340.5000011.2587-0.53200190.8990013788496868
52Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5333311.3155-1.02920194.3700013788497263
53Lee Burdorf0.642340.5037012.2212-0.28250227.3510013788496867
54Stephen Kerns0.635040.4705912.3832-0.91750234.4810013787506472
55LS - w/ team HFA0.635040.5661811.1518-1.71530209.4400013787507759
56NutShell Sports0.627740.4926511.3371-0.15140193.0050013786516769
57Least Abs. Val Reg0.627740.5188011.7536-1.92310209.0140013786516964
58Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.2750-0.21070193.9470013786516868
59Dokter Entropy0.627740.4558811.2387-0.37680193.7140013786516274
60Steven Jens0.627740.5075811.1037-0.77660185.4660013786516765
61Tom Benson0.613140.4264712.15970.33110212.9830013784535878
62Dunkel Index0.598540.4963011.7773-0.13230203.9760013782556768
63Covers.com0.496350.4338212.6215-1.09440245.7480013768695977
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses