Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-02-07
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Bihl Rankings0.648150.4683510.37301.30080182.30100162105577484
2Talisman Red0.649210.5107510.80050.30970190.87900191124679591
3John Coffey0.630210.4705910.68052.54830190.85000192121718899
4Donchess Inference0.686510.5473310.16251.42570172.3790025317379133110
5RP Excel0.659750.4805210.71071.00000193.0040024215982111120
6Sportsformulator0.670630.5294111.41902.04360207.9180025316983126112
7Dunkel Index0.666670.4534411.37303.06130213.9820025316884112135
8Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.682840.4942110.19220.37660170.3000026918385128131
9Lou St. John0.682840.5114510.03750.14580169.5150026918385134128
10System Median0.679100.527569.84911.76000164.2990026918286134120
11ThePowerRank.com0.679100.527349.92260.88930164.6900026918286135121
12ProComputerGambler0.679100.530539.92260.31340165.4330026918286139123
13Kasulis ESP20.679100.484139.98440.74500163.3120026918286122130
14Roundtable0.624450.4590911.30003.35240214.0570023014386101119
15TuringFantasy0.635590.5180211.61180.18570214.1600023715086115107
16Pi-Rate Mean0.675370.550399.89591.77180165.6240026918187142116
17Pi-Rate Ratings0.675370.533079.92191.76590165.7800026918187137120
18System Average0.671640.519089.92231.86660165.6430026918088136126
19Stephen Kerns0.671640.5269210.39221.94830178.0450026918088137123
20Pi-Rate Bias0.671640.535439.95761.76730167.0440026918088136118
21ESPN FPI0.671640.534359.94031.55560163.3610026918088140122
22Line (Midweek)0.671649.84011.12640160.1570026918088
23Sonny Moore0.667910.5190810.12562.01770174.5850026917989136126
24Computer Adjusted Line0.667910.547179.82161.12640161.85400269179898772
25Odds Shark0.621280.4956512.93477.18810256.1670023614689114116
26Dan Hanson0.618640.4978411.15700.17040207.5140023714690115116
27Game Time Decision0.634150.4910710.23512.93200173.1800024715690110114
28Daniel Curry Index0.664180.5114510.46302.11010180.0180026917890134128
29Least Abs. Val Reg0.664180.5193810.18460.36600173.2010026917890134124
30Line (updated)0.664180.529809.84761.02600162.47000269178908071
31Dokter Entropy0.664180.557259.83892.02110163.2530026917890146116
32Points Per Game0.660450.5381710.40291.89460180.7010026917791141121
33Massey Ratings0.660450.5095810.09780.47870168.3370026917791133128
34PerformanZ Ratings0.660450.5419810.02800.36990166.9880026917791142120
35Covers.com0.660450.5280010.02802.89800169.0620026917791132118
36Sagarin Points0.660450.521249.98791.23070166.3700026917791135124
37Sagarin Rating0.660450.526729.94231.23480165.4640026917791138124
38Sagarin Recent0.652990.5210710.13291.23910169.6860026917593136125
39Sagarin Golden Mean0.652990.550009.93171.25220164.3330026917593143117
40ARGH Power Ratings0.649250.5000010.19241.51770172.9150026917494123123
41TeamRankings.com0.649250.539069.89492.02650166.3440026917494138118
42Dwiggins0.597460.4978411.31414.44830213.5360023714195115116
43Versus Sports Simulator0.644190.5095810.47422.31810187.3390026817295133128
44Logistic Regression0.645520.5039110.81310.41700191.7520026917395129127
45Least Squares0.645520.5289610.29330.38180175.8330026917395137122
46Ashby AccuRatings0.638060.5282310.08911.84450171.9200026917197131117
47Line (opening)0.638060.550669.87551.80110161.1000026917197125102
48Pythagorean Ratings0.638060.5381710.34452.87090176.5460026917197141121
49Pigskin Index0.634330.4937810.22693.11220175.1350026917098119122
50Beck Elo0.634330.5038210.60653.39210188.2620026917098132130
51Stat Fox0.626870.5059310.60983.10850186.33100269168100128125
52Steven Jens0.626870.5000010.72264.08660190.10800269168100131131
53FF-Winners0.623130.4734710.56511.54650178.33300269167101116129
54LS - w/ team HFA0.612780.5351611.42830.55780210.27000267163103137119
55Scoring Effeciency0.615670.5210710.34982.85090177.45900269165103136125
56Turnover Adj. regressio0.615670.5440610.33990.68010174.97100269165103142119
57Cleanup Hitter0.600750.4883710.75652.48210187.83900269161107126132
58RP Excel 20.517240.4864912.77680.67380253.53000233120112108114
59Steven Jens 20.527200.5170913.02187.42170282.31800240126113121113
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses