Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-02-05
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Bihl Rankings0.710230.5357110.27470.49540178.06400176125519078
2John Coffey0.684210.5659310.27600.10050172.765001901306010379
3Game Time Decision0.666670.5449710.17600.33150177.313002131427110386
4Roger Johnson0.663640.5471710.4587-0.95260183.115002201467411696
5Roundtable0.668100.5395311.53440.27610220.426002321557711699
6Laffaye RWP0.654010.5521711.17920.38220212.1890023715582127103
7Daniel Curry Index0.669320.4897111.62590.43200219.8990025116883119124
8Donchess Inference0.685390.5559810.31140.24450181.9060026718384144115
9Lou St. John0.681650.5348810.3869-0.74580184.2150026718285138120
10YourLinx0.658730.5696710.54500.20880187.4900025216686139105
11Line (updated)0.677900.6000010.1124-0.51690173.55700267181869966
12TeamRankings.com0.677900.5275610.47230.57790188.6700026718186134120
13Computer Adjusted Line0.674160.5674210.1629-0.46250174.995002671808710177
14Sagarin Rating0.674160.5135110.4090-0.07180185.0950026718087133126
15ESPN FPI0.674160.5057910.57211.20760190.2200026718087131128
16ComPughter Ratings0.674160.5251011.1166-0.31590207.8600026718087136123
17TheSportsCruncher0.664120.5282310.5767-0.36830181.1250026217488131117
18Sagarin Golden Mean0.670410.5096510.6027-0.09330191.9760026717988132127
19Sonny Moore0.670410.5328210.90100.43820200.2930026717988138121
20Massey Ratings0.666670.5444010.5366-0.35090187.2330026717889141118
21RP Excel 20.661600.5000011.3840-0.26620212.0830026317489125125
22ProComputerGambler0.666670.5019310.3354-1.53520179.3600026717889130129
23Stephen Kerns0.666670.5212411.0109-0.75460202.8890026717889135124
24Line (Midweek)0.6629210.2659-0.37830177.4130026717790
25Talisman Red0.662920.4710411.1300-0.81340203.4160026717790122137
26Pi-Rate Mean0.659180.5116310.62500.47240193.4840026717691132126
27Stat Fox0.659180.5101210.82780.57370201.9090026717691126121
28Dokter Entropy0.659180.4787610.5888-0.63190185.8620026717691124135
29Line (opening)0.659180.5291310.2453-0.38010176.416002671769110997
30Kasulis ESP20.659180.5081310.4285-0.40070182.7630026717691125121
31System Median0.655430.5472410.4155-0.01190183.7200026717592139115
32System Average0.655430.5426410.4162-0.06440184.4710026717592140118
33Sagarin Points0.655430.5405410.4558-0.03290185.5420026717592140119
34Dunkel Index0.655430.5271311.66671.05390221.4080026717592136122
35Dan Hanson0.605930.4824611.1208-0.75360202.7330023614393110118
36Steven Jens0.635290.4715411.32661.61140211.0310025516293116130
37Dwiggins0.651690.5038811.18590.40010215.1750026717493130128
38Sagarin Recent0.651690.5390610.6122-0.16930186.2970026717493138118
39Covers.com0.651690.5125010.61230.34670190.2640026717493123117
40FF-Winners0.651690.5291710.7828-0.16850198.8280026717493127113
41Least Abs. Val Reg0.651690.5000011.0950-1.15730203.5790026717493127127
42ARGH Power Ratings0.649060.5731710.4849-0.28300183.2670026517293141105
43Pi-Rate Ratings0.647940.5296410.62060.46710192.5850026717394134119
44Kalin Ratings0.642590.5176510.5713-0.12040187.8680026316994132123
45Turner Rateform0.626980.5514410.97580.66230206.2100025215894134109
46ThePowerRank.com0.647940.5708710.47380.12340186.5800026717394145109
47Pi-Rate Bias0.647940.5351610.64040.49070192.1500026717394137119
48Lee Burdorf0.641510.5039111.52230.58420221.1580026517095129127
49IronRank.com0.627450.4879011.10990.11620207.1550025516095121127
50RP Excel0.638780.4775512.0646-0.90110244.1980026316895117128
51Least Squares0.644190.5252911.0307-1.47240203.7350026717295135122
52Ashby AccuRatings0.644190.5000010.6406-0.40740188.1310026717295123123
53PerformanZ Ratings0.644190.5752910.7469-0.19240188.1720026717295149110
54Pythagorean Ratings0.640450.5289610.95060.15240206.6310026717196137122
55Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.640450.5098010.6341-0.47080190.0550026717196130125
56Logistic Regression0.636700.5155011.2099-0.84730210.5730026717097133125
57Pigskin Index0.636700.5147710.54330.66350188.5140026717097122115
58NutShell Sports0.632960.5196912.30320.16700250.7160026716998132122
59What If Sports0.632960.4902010.9880-2.17600197.5650026716998125130
60Scoring Effeciency0.621720.5038810.82750.24070198.28600267166101130128
61Turnover Adj. regressio0.621720.4826311.2966-1.42930207.52600267166101125134
62Beck Elo0.617980.5057910.9872-0.08540200.15400267165102131128
63LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.4763811.6521-1.14440230.81500267164103121133
64Points Per Game0.610490.4980511.5845-0.81520222.12100267163104128129
65Cleanup Hitter0.595510.5060211.1237-0.10060204.75900267159108126123
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses