Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
2Game Time Decision0.641670.5486711.0752-0.45800182.1850012077436251
3TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
4Bihl Rankings0.690320.5657910.69990.44190176.43200155107488666
5Viacheslav0.638890.4890511.01490.57120187.5510014492526770
6Eric Hollobaugh0.707320.5445511.0438-0.10860194.177002051456011092
7Mike Greenfield0.697560.5445510.9020-1.44340185.961002051436211092
8Ed Bemiss0.680000.5578910.6620-0.74490182.358002001366410684
9John Coffey0.673170.5049510.8166-0.32300187.6110020513867102100
10Roger Johnson0.684930.5601910.9551-0.97370190.987002191506912195
11Logistic Regression0.671230.5324111.7291-2.47790228.2060021914772115101
12Jeff Self0.635000.5329911.3050-0.46960206.470002001277310592
13Deslock Rankings0.665180.5162811.9157-0.94660215.8560022414975111104
14Sourjax0.657530.5094311.18040.57140196.6430021914475108104
15ARGH Power Ratings0.685260.5357111.0219-0.76290190.0730025117279120104
16Dwiggins0.684620.5542211.20380.30930197.2210026017882138111
17Sonny Moore0.689140.5135111.1158-0.92680193.5100026718483133126
18Line (updated)0.6853910.7135-0.39140178.8580026718384
19Michael Robert Ratings0.642550.5087011.11920.16680193.4300023515184117113
20Computer Adjusted Line0.681650.5952410.6966-0.39700178.31200267182855034
21Upset Report0.657370.4895411.4382-2.43920208.4230025116586117122
22Line (opening)0.674160.4918910.8727-0.21720182.16100267180879194
23Lee Burdorf0.674160.5426411.60480.20040211.5370026718087140118
24Pigskin Herald0.672930.5177911.3695-0.60640199.5790026617987131122
25Beck Elo0.670410.5482611.0452-0.67370188.8730026717988142117
26Pythagorean Ratings0.670410.5173711.4344-1.36430206.8420026717988134125
27CPA Retro Rankings0.670410.5019310.9536-0.02750191.8530026717988130129
28Sports Report Elo0.656250.5483911.9478-1.61560227.0230025616888136112
29The Sports Report0.656250.5241912.3973-1.57610236.4940025616888130118
30NutShell Retro0.645420.5020411.1854-0.76410194.7500025116289123122
31Sagarin0.666670.5697710.7854-0.11250183.9790026717889147111
32Hank Trexler0.666670.5000010.8652-0.67790185.2230026717889125125
33CPA Rankings0.666670.5251010.9995-0.02460187.9480026717889136123
34Steven Jens0.662920.5375511.0963-1.06020189.9930026717790136117
35Reistertown Index0.662920.4916711.3071-0.88760194.3230026717790118122
36Brian Gabrielle0.656490.5423710.89120.26950184.8350026217290128108
37Sagarin Elo0.659180.5444011.0281-0.11830191.4130026717691141118
38Jeff Imes0.659180.5675711.37510.96980203.3480026717691147112
39Sport Trends0.659180.5000011.6221-1.38010213.0070026717691129129
40System Median0.655430.5607810.8281-0.36570182.4750026717592143112
41PerformanZ Ratings0.654140.5348811.2020-1.39970193.5690026617492138120
42Least Squares0.655430.5232611.7110-1.52690209.2330026717592135123
43Kambour Rating0.651690.5405410.8506-0.50390183.4020026717493140119
44Sagarin Predictive0.651690.5852710.7894-0.11970183.6860026717493151107
45System Average0.651690.5637110.7819-0.43180180.9940026717493146113
46What If Sports0.636720.4879011.97080.31970221.6880025616393121127
47Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.647940.5039111.0881-0.89690190.9630026717394129127
48Stat Fox0.640450.5020611.21740.35630192.7490026717196122121
49NutShell Sports0.640450.5135111.12580.04860192.4550026717196133126
50Scoring Effeciency0.635340.5000011.3108-0.23240199.1390026616997129129
51JFM Power Ratings0.636700.5559811.01380.05710186.9980026717097144115
52Pigskin Index0.636700.5400811.00770.28150188.5160026717097128109
53Stephen Kerns0.632960.5096511.9218-0.60780225.1640026716998132127
54Grid Iron Gold0.600810.4786312.0141-1.52170227.7820024814999112122
55Ashby AccuRatings0.625470.4917411.00400.37540186.05100267167100119123
56Sports Report Pred0.609380.4817814.7464-2.14390369.30500256156100119128
57Dokter Entropy0.617980.4787611.07820.20620191.38700267165102124135
58LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.5348812.2272-1.47210243.73700267164103138120
59Least Abs. Val Reg0.610490.5215712.2046-1.65480227.98500267163104133122
60TSR Slots0.589840.4898814.7684-2.00540363.18000256151105121126
61Dunkel Index0.603000.5387611.34520.26120194.29300267161106139119
62Tom Benson0.599250.4845011.6842-0.35010204.29300267160107125133
63Covers.com0.561800.4710411.9046-0.85640224.51700267150117122137
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses