Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2007 Retrodiction Results
Through
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | TSR Pred | 0.78277 | 0.00000 | 8.0858 | 0.20450 | 113.17500 | 267 | 209 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.77154 | 0.00000 | 8.2226 | -0.50500 | 120.25500 | 267 | 206 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | CPA Rankings | 0.77154 | 0.00000 | 8.4791 | -0.07460 | 120.54200 | 267 | 206 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Ed Kambour | 0.74532 | 0.00000 | 8.6442 | -0.14280 | 124.14100 | 267 | 199 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | TSR Slots | 0.89513 | 0.00000 | 8.5216 | -0.00060 | 129.85600 | 267 | 239 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | System Average | 0.75281 | 0.00000 | 9.0325 | -0.44440 | 136.01800 | 267 | 201 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | The Sports Report | 0.73034 | 0.00000 | 9.2238 | -0.07230 | 136.72100 | 267 | 195 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | System Median | 0.75281 | 0.00000 | 9.0912 | -0.30860 | 137.61200 | 267 | 201 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Sagarin Predictive | 0.73783 | 0.00000 | 9.0625 | -0.15200 | 139.84900 | 267 | 197 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Least Squares | 0.73408 | 0.00000 | 9.4029 | -0.53480 | 141.49300 | 267 | 196 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Brian Gabrielle | 0.75281 | 0.00000 | 9.2921 | 0.20490 | 141.96700 | 267 | 201 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Roger Johnson | 0.74532 | 0.00000 | 9.3851 | 0.02750 | 143.72500 | 267 | 199 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Sagarin | 0.74532 | 0.00000 | 9.1867 | -0.17640 | 144.12200 | 267 | 199 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Mike Greenfield | 0.73034 | 0.00000 | 9.3749 | -0.76090 | 144.32500 | 267 | 195 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | NutShell Sports | 0.70412 | 0.00000 | 9.5628 | 0.01600 | 144.92400 | 267 | 188 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.74532 | 0.00000 | 8.9498 | -0.37090 | 145.14600 | 267 | 199 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.74532 | 0.00000 | 9.5384 | -0.53460 | 146.20100 | 267 | 199 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Sonny Moore | 0.72659 | 0.00000 | 9.3967 | -0.69800 | 148.70000 | 267 | 194 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | JFM Power Ratings | 0.73783 | 0.00000 | 9.4720 | 0.01270 | 149.09200 | 267 | 197 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.70787 | 0.00000 | 9.7189 | 0.04690 | 149.14300 | 267 | 189 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Ashby Accuratings | 0.68914 | 0.00000 | 9.6554 | 0.15410 | 149.19200 | 267 | 184 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Stat Fox | 0.71910 | 0.00000 | 9.7026 | -0.05780 | 149.78000 | 267 | 192 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Beck Elo | 0.71536 | 0.00000 | 9.5232 | -0.08980 | 151.63600 | 267 | 191 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Sagarin Elo | 0.74157 | 0.00000 | 9.5422 | -0.20950 | 155.23600 | 267 | 198 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | Sports Report Elo | 0.74157 | 0.00000 | 9.7132 | -0.05820 | 156.22600 | 267 | 198 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Nutsehll Retro | 0.69663 | 0.00000 | 10.0182 | 0.07600 | 156.51300 | 267 | 186 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Stephen Kerns | 0.72659 | 0.00000 | 9.7534 | 0.06290 | 157.34200 | 267 | 194 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Pigskin Index | 0.72659 | 0.00000 | 9.7278 | -0.10290 | 157.88200 | 267 | 194 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | CPA Retro | 0.78277 | 0.00000 | 9.7282 | -2.87710 | 158.10600 | 267 | 209 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.69663 | 0.00000 | 10.1034 | 0.00550 | 161.24600 | 267 | 186 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Logistic Regression | 0.74906 | 0.00000 | 9.8278 | -2.10970 | 163.71700 | 267 | 200 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | Jeff Self | 0.74906 | 0.00000 | 9.9949 | -0.04300 | 165.59300 | 267 | 200 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | Covers.com | 0.70412 | 0.00000 | 10.2906 | -0.00850 | 171.20800 | 267 | 188 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 | Sport Trends | 0.57519 | 0.00000 | 11.5925 | -6.51050 | 215.32600 | 266 | 153 | 113 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Grid Iron Gold | 0.56929 | 0.00000 | 12.0674 | -1.09400 | 235.74200 | 267 | 152 | 115 | 0 | 0 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses