Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Retrodiction Results

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1TSR Pred0.782770.000008.08580.20450113.175002672095800
2LS - w/ team HFA0.771540.000008.2226-0.50500120.255002672066100
3CPA Rankings0.771540.000008.4791-0.07460120.542002672066100
4Ed Kambour0.745320.000008.6442-0.14280124.141002671996800
5TSR Slots0.895130.000008.5216-0.00060129.856002672392800
6System Average0.752810.000009.0325-0.44440136.018002672016600
7The Sports Report0.730340.000009.2238-0.07230136.721002671957200
8System Median0.752810.000009.0912-0.30860137.612002672016600
9Sagarin Predictive0.737830.000009.0625-0.15200139.849002671977000
10Least Squares0.734080.000009.4029-0.53480141.493002671967100
11Brian Gabrielle0.752810.000009.29210.20490141.967002672016600
12Roger Johnson0.745320.000009.38510.02750143.725002671996800
13Sagarin0.745320.000009.1867-0.17640144.122002671996800
14Mike Greenfield0.730340.000009.3749-0.76090144.325002671957200
15NutShell Sports0.704120.000009.56280.01600144.924002671887900
16Least Abs. Val Reg0.745320.000008.9498-0.37090145.146002671996800
17PerformanZ Ratings0.745320.000009.5384-0.53460146.201002671996800
18Sonny Moore0.726590.000009.3967-0.69800148.700002671947300
19JFM Power Ratings0.737830.000009.47200.01270149.092002671977000
20Pythagorean Ratings0.707870.000009.71890.04690149.143002671897800
21Ashby Accuratings0.689140.000009.65540.15410149.192002671848300
22Stat Fox0.719100.000009.7026-0.05780149.780002671927500
23Beck Elo0.715360.000009.5232-0.08980151.636002671917600
24Sagarin Elo0.741570.000009.5422-0.20950155.236002671986900
25Sports Report Elo0.741570.000009.7132-0.05820156.226002671986900
26Nutsehll Retro0.696630.0000010.01820.07600156.513002671868100
27Stephen Kerns0.726590.000009.75340.06290157.342002671947300
28Pigskin Index0.726590.000009.7278-0.10290157.882002671947300
29CPA Retro0.782770.000009.7282-2.87710158.106002672095800
30Scoring Effeciency0.696630.0000010.10340.00550161.246002671868100
31Logistic Regression0.749060.000009.8278-2.10970163.717002672006700
32Jeff Self0.749060.000009.9949-0.04300165.593002672006700
33Covers.com0.704120.0000010.2906-0.00850171.208002671887900
34Sport Trends0.575190.0000011.5925-6.51050215.3260026615311300
35Grid Iron Gold0.569290.0000012.0674-1.09400235.7420026715211500
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses