ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Second Half Totals

Through 2022-02-13

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Line (updated)	0.64189	0.62637	10.7013	-1.56040	183.64300	149	95	53	57	34
2	Computer Adjusted Line	0.63514	0.59000	10.7685	-1.58050	185.73700	149	94	54	59	41
3	Line (opening)	0.62162	0.55200	10.7987	-1.39600	187.93700	149	92	56	69	56
4	Line (Midweek)	0.63514		10.9262	-1.72480	190.05100	149	94	54
5	FF-Winners	0.62162	0.55285	10.9195	-1.44300	190.43600	149	92	56	68	55
6	Kasulis ESP2	0.66892	0.44218	11.1530	-2.15840	196.43400	149	99	49	65	82
7	Dokter Entropy	0.63514	0.51007	11.1237	-0.22420	197.05600	149	94	54	76	73
8	ESPN FPI	0.61268	0.46853	11.1271	-1.02780	197.10100	143	87	55	67	76
9	Donchess Inference	0.64865	0.44521	11.1128	-1.09530	197.30600	149	96	52	65	81
10	System Average	0.60135	0.46980	11.3140	-1.41300	201.27400	149	89	59	70	79
11	Pythagorean Ratings	0.58784	0.52349	11.3422	-0.40600	201.39700	149	87	61	78	71
12	Sagarin Points	0.61486	0.47651	11.2915	-2.14560	201.66600	149	91	57	71	78
13	TeamRankings.com	0.60811	0.50345	11.2342	-1.22480	201.71500	149	90	58	73	72
14	Dunkel Index	0.60135	0.48322	11.2403	-0.35370	202.20500	149	89	59	72	77
15	Ashby AccuRatings	0.58784	0.44366	11.4295	-1.21410	202.24000	149	87	61	63	79
16	System Median	0.60135	0.45070	11.3587	-1.42860	203.04200	149	89	59	64	78
17	Pigskin Index	0.62838	0.47222	11.3759	-0.08680	204.12600	149	93	55	68	76
18	Scoring Effeciency	0.59459	0.44966	11.4672	-0.40100	204.72700	149	88	60	67	82
19	Sonny Moore	0.62162	0.45638	11.4017	-1.52860	205.06700	149	92	56	68	81
20	Sagarin Rating	0.60811	0.49664	11.4851	-2.05360	205.56300	149	90	58	74	75
21	Dwiggins	0.61486	0.47651	11.5181	0.45030	206.13400	149	91	57	71	78
22	Game Time Decision	0.61207	0.43519	11.4187	0.78690	207.89800	117	71	45	47	61
23	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.61486	0.54054	11.4007	-0.54830	208.00000	149	91	57	80	68
24	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.60135	0.44595	11.4741	-2.04260	208.20000	149	89	59	66	82
25	Pi-Rate Mean	0.58784	0.53061	11.4161	-0.53150	208.27600	149	87	61	78	69
26	Massey Ratings	0.58784	0.45638	11.5041	-2.96580	209.53100	149	87	61	68	81
27	Pi-Rate Bias	0.60135	0.52027	11.4672	-0.52210	210.07900	149	89	59	77	71
28	Lou St. John	0.57432	0.49664	11.5787	-3.11930	210.27400	149	85	63	74	75
29	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.62838	0.42568	11.6886	-2.57850	211.00100	149	93	55	63	85
30	Roger Johnson	0.60135	0.44295	11.5845	-2.49030	211.54700	149	89	59	66	83
31	Stat Fox	0.60811	0.51389	11.5368	-0.27470	211.79000	149	90	58	74	70
32	Laffaye RWP	0.60544	0.47973	11.5690	-0.09700	212.00500	148	89	58	71	77
33	Least Squares	0.57432	0.44966	11.8709	-2.95650	212.57300	149	85	63	67	82
34	John Coffey	0.58784	0.41611	11.6093	-0.98850	213.07300	149	87	61	62	87
35	Beck Elo	0.62162	0.48322	11.6629	0.20300	214.53800	149	92	56	72	77
36	Bihl Rankings	0.59091	0.46970	11.5717	-2.29020	214.63100	133	78	54	62	70
37	Versus Sports Simulator	0.60811	0.49324	11.6278	-1.00620	214.95700	149	90	58	73	75
38	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.61486	0.43624	11.7438	-2.40600	215.67400	149	91	57	65	84
39	Points Per Game	0.58108	0.52027	11.6164	-1.45950	216.08700	149	86	62	77	71
40	Daniel Curry Index	0.62838	0.52349	11.7609	-0.50020	216.11400	149	93	55	78	71
41	TuringFantasy	0.54483	0.46479	11.8082	-2.31510	216.30600	146	79	66	66	76
42	ARGH Power Ratings	0.57576	0.40000	11.7707	-1.53010	217.97400	133	76	56	50	75
43	Cleanup Hitter	0.55405	0.46207	11.7150	-0.69420	218.86500	149	82	66	67	78
44	Sagarin Recent	0.64865	0.41892	12.0138	-1.96090	221.23000	149	96	52	62	86
45	RP Excel	0.60544	0.48252	11.8581	-3.72300	222.45400	148	89	58	69	74
46	Talisman Red	0.54730	0.46980	12.0993	-3.39740	224.45500	149	81	67	70	79
47	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.58108	0.49664	12.0577	-3.37570	225.70900	149	86	62	74	75
48	PerformanZ Ratings	0.56757	0.46309	12.0597	-2.86080	226.25900	149	84	64	69	80
49	Stephen Kerns	0.57432	0.47973	11.9611	-1.39260	228.07900	149	85	63	71	77
50	Dan Hanson	0.63514	0.46980	11.9835	-2.00120	229.27600	149	94	54	70	79
51	Roundtable	0.61600	0.50000	11.9286	-0.27760	232.90000	126	77	48	59	59
52	Logistic Regression	0.58108	0.45946	12.3696	-2.92640	242.31500	149	86	62	68	80
53	LS - w/ team HFA	0.57432	0.44966	12.7973	-2.93170	255.06000	149	85	63	67	82
54	Odds Shark	0.60135	0.50676	12.4746	3.43970	258.49400	149	89	59	75	73
55	RP Excel 2	0.63014	0.53147	12.8912	-2.79590	277.12400	147	92	54	76	67

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses