Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Eric Hollobaugh0.626170.6261710.43681.23500183.2580010767406740
2Sagarin0.649640.5514710.79451.11790188.7820013789487561
3Massey Ratings0.642340.5629610.78240.94010189.6480013788497659
4Bihl Rankings0.642280.5691110.88802.23170191.6720012379447053
5Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5955910.81571.05120192.6920013788498155
6Sagarin Elo0.656930.5147111.15091.10260192.7710013790477066
7Game Time Decision0.678830.4961811.03271.83620192.9410013793446566
8Cover810.686960.5045011.04780.43570193.0530011579365655
9John Coffey0.642340.5514710.95991.41810193.3690013788497561
10Wunderdog Sports0.642340.5126110.99270.40880193.4150013788496158
11Stat Fox0.642340.4341110.98551.74470193.4900013788495673
12System Average0.664230.5220611.02441.04090194.4160013791467165
13System Median0.649640.5367611.04911.12760195.0170013789487363
14Line (opening)0.698530.5531910.99261.05150195.0650013695415242
15Dokter Entropy0.664230.5037011.07271.71170197.2380013791466867
16Computer Adjusted Line0.671530.5555611.10221.13140197.8850013792452016
17Covers.com0.642340.5447811.08501.69400198.2400013788497361
18Strengthranking.com0.613140.5882411.11540.51850198.5540013784538056
19Line (updated)0.6788311.12411.14600198.979001379344
20Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.649640.5367611.18251.62500199.3950013789487363
21JFM Power Ratings0.649640.4264711.29241.52580199.5720013789485878
22Nutshell Girl0.656930.4852911.28421.51510199.6170013790476670
23Austin Sports0.644630.6166710.98920.95350199.9510012178437446
24Hank Trexler0.642340.5038811.19710.35040200.3930013788496564
25ARGH Power Ratings0.666670.5229411.31460.20210200.5650012080405752
26NFL Pickles0.656930.5746311.2759-0.49930200.7680013790477757
27Ashby AccuRatings0.642340.5426411.19011.51180202.1680013788497059
28Stephen Kerns0.627740.5522411.33430.49930202.2360013786517460
29Pigskin Index0.620440.4651211.34311.67980202.8880013785526069
30Kambour Rating0.620440.5955911.21571.04010203.5180013785528155
31Steven Jens0.602940.5000011.45741.90440204.1610013682546666
32Roger Johnson0.605840.5303011.2912-0.19050204.6220013783547062
33Logistic Regression0.554740.4962411.64740.32510204.8130013776616667
34Nutshell Combo0.627740.4264711.55371.40820204.9970013786515878
35Atomic Football0.626870.5112811.36810.91760205.1440013484506865
36Michael Robert Ratings0.671530.4926511.14610.75330205.3470013792456769
37Pythagorean Ratings0.598540.5294111.21241.46410205.3630013782557264
38Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4926511.4537-0.16180205.4020013788496769
39Sonny Moore0.613140.4632411.38680.91180205.5130013784536373
40Beck Elo0.591240.5073511.39340.88800205.7280013781566967
41Jim Armstrong0.627740.5000011.50871.79950207.6070013786516767
42PerformanZ Ratings0.598540.5185211.55230.47720208.6730013782557065
43David and Pasteur0.635040.4926511.40961.67200208.8440013787506769
44Sportrends0.605840.5581411.36501.71600209.5090013783547257
45PickingPros.com0.649640.5588211.34730.69910209.9970013789487660
46CPA Retro Rankings0.642340.4411811.6105-0.04230210.5720013788496076
47Pat Laffaye0.627740.5447811.36280.56720210.8370013786517361
48CPA Rankings0.620440.5367611.4471-0.07980211.2040013785527363
49Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.44621.48400211.9890013786516868
50Dunkel Index0.598540.4485311.63420.53880212.0110013782556175
51Yarnell0.656930.5481511.68382.19740212.0590013790477461
52Brent Craig0.572730.4761911.52761.70950213.3490011063475055
53YourLinx0.627740.4485311.82911.39090213.9980013786516175
54Nationalsportsrankings0.595240.4480011.63271.38600214.2610012675515669
55Reistertown Index0.635040.4885511.81750.53280215.2610013787506467
56Least Squares0.620440.5441211.6472-0.10280216.5020013785527462
57Upset Report0.649640.5581411.71530.63500217.9610013789487257
58What If Sports0.605840.4545512.2175-0.80440225.2950013783546072
59Brian Gabrielle0.612900.4915312.10483.37900226.360006238242930
60NutShell Sports0.583940.4222212.14261.44050227.1720013780575778
61Least Abs. Val Reg0.642340.4191212.1285-0.19340228.8880013788495779
62Dwiggins0.640350.5089311.89481.27730230.0190011473415755
63Lee Burdorf0.591240.4887212.04601.43870236.2920013781566568
64LS - w/ team HFA0.569340.4360912.6504-0.09380242.8650013778595875
65RP Excel0.569340.4592612.82481.00000264.2340013778596273
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses