Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
2Line (updated)0.7007310.8358-0.73360177.841001379641
3Computer Adjusted Line0.700730.4651210.8796-0.71900178.4690013796412023
4Game Time Decision0.632080.5252511.02850.15110178.5850010667395247
5Line (opening)0.686130.4693910.9745-0.60220179.4590013794434652
6TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
7System Average0.642340.5367611.0929-0.67950183.1260013788497363
8Hank Trexler0.649640.4961211.0365-0.89050184.2720013789486465
9JFM Power Ratings0.642340.5514711.1091-0.19400184.3940013788497561
10System Median0.642340.5037011.1185-0.64190185.0070013788496867
11Kambour Rating0.671530.5147111.0061-0.81280185.2150013792457066
12Steven Jens0.627740.5075811.1037-0.77660185.4660013786516765
13Pigskin Index0.642340.5454511.11690.00770186.0060013788496655
14Bihl Rankings0.663370.5000011.29790.26430186.4740010167345050
15Roger Johnson0.649640.5441211.1088-1.33210186.6690013789487462
16CPA Rankings0.656930.5220611.10010.41070186.8820013790477165
17Ashby AccuRatings0.649640.4761911.26280.15360188.3850013789486066
18NutShell Retro0.664230.5220611.1920-0.90940188.7690013791467165
19Ed Bemiss0.676920.5238111.0984-0.87220190.4980013088426660
20John Coffey0.642340.5000011.2587-0.53200190.8990013788496868
21Brian Gabrielle0.651520.4758111.3411-0.10560191.0640013286465965
22Michael Robert Ratings0.656930.5147111.16260.04390191.4850013790477066
23CPA Retro Rankings0.678830.4926511.07070.44640191.5360013793446769
24Mike Greenfield0.649640.5147111.2591-1.85910191.9060013789487066
25Sourjax0.649640.5037011.10720.38420191.9750013789486867
26Sagarin0.664230.5185211.2663-1.02310192.0710013791467065
27NutShell Sports0.627740.4926511.3371-0.15140193.0050013786516769
28Jeff Self0.634780.4912311.2537-0.31040193.1860011573425658
29Pythagorean Ratings0.671530.5147111.2247-1.06580193.5890013792457066
30Dokter Entropy0.627740.4558811.2387-0.37680193.7140013786516274
31Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.2750-0.21070193.9470013786516868
32Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5333311.3155-1.02920194.3700013788497263
33Least Squares0.649640.5073511.4682-1.53200194.5590013789486967
34Stat Fox0.656930.5360011.44520.20470194.6570013790476758
35Beck Elo0.656930.4485311.3983-1.04360194.8090013790476175
36Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4586511.4912-1.43580195.7620013788496172
37PerformanZ Ratings0.664230.5147111.3406-1.48230196.0850013791467066
38Sonny Moore0.671530.4926511.4588-1.20660196.7170013792456769
39ARGH Power Ratings0.644630.4910711.5702-1.25620197.2210012178435557
40Eric Hollobaugh0.678830.5073511.4691-0.13480198.5390013793446967
41Reistertown Index0.664230.4803111.5255-0.95620200.0590013791466166
42Sagarin Elo0.649640.4485311.5644-0.99200200.8200013789486175
43Pigskin Herald0.654410.4850711.7956-1.24410201.4080013689476569
44Upset Report0.669420.4957311.2612-2.00660202.8740012181405859
45Dunkel Index0.598540.4963011.7773-0.13230203.9760013782556768
46What If Sports0.650790.4720011.8233-0.30060204.5560012682445966
47Logistic Regression0.649640.5220611.4815-2.45570204.8290013789487165
48Jeff Imes0.649640.5147111.5583-0.06390204.9610013789487066
49Dwiggins0.676920.4728711.7077-0.42920207.7920013088426168
50The Sports Report0.666670.4960011.7728-1.56130208.5240012684426263
51Least Abs. Val Reg0.627740.5188011.7536-1.92310209.0140013786516964
52LS - w/ team HFA0.635040.5661811.1518-1.71530209.4400013787507759
53Deslock Rankings0.670210.4623711.8131-0.41180209.475009463314350
54Sport Trends0.664230.5000011.5919-2.64150211.8050013791466868
55Tom Benson0.613140.4264712.15970.33110212.9830013784535878
56Grid Iron Gold0.627120.4955812.0676-1.49980225.6040011874445657
57Sports Report Elo0.682540.4960012.2609-1.30500227.0320012686406263
58Lee Burdorf0.642340.5037012.2212-0.28250227.3510013788496867
59Viacheslav0.428570.2142913.52295.17860227.371001468311
60Stephen Kerns0.635040.4705912.3832-0.91750234.4810013787506472
61Sports Report Pred0.690480.5120011.9143-1.52570235.4930012687396461
62TSR Slots0.650790.5040012.1663-1.49720237.1480012682446362
63Covers.com0.496350.4338212.6215-1.09440245.7480013768695977
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses