Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
2Bihl Rankings0.690320.5657910.69990.44190176.43200155107488666
3Computer Adjusted Line0.681650.5952410.6966-0.39700178.31200267182855034
4Line (updated)0.6853910.7135-0.39140178.8580026718384
5System Average0.651690.5637110.7819-0.43180180.9940026717493146113
6Line (opening)0.674160.4918910.8727-0.21720182.16100267180879194
7Game Time Decision0.641670.5486711.0752-0.45800182.1850012077436251
8Ed Bemiss0.680000.5578910.6620-0.74490182.358002001366410684
9TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
10System Median0.655430.5607810.8281-0.36570182.4750026717592143112
11Kambour Rating0.651690.5405410.8506-0.50390183.4020026717493140119
12Sagarin Predictive0.651690.5852710.7894-0.11970183.6860026717493151107
13Sagarin0.666670.5697710.7854-0.11250183.9790026717889147111
14Brian Gabrielle0.656490.5423710.89120.26950184.8350026217290128108
15Hank Trexler0.666670.5000010.8652-0.67790185.2230026717889125125
16Mike Greenfield0.697560.5445510.9020-1.44340185.961002051436211092
17Ashby AccuRatings0.625470.4917411.00400.37540186.05100267167100119123
18JFM Power Ratings0.636700.5559811.01380.05710186.9980026717097144115
19Viacheslav0.638890.4890511.01490.57120187.5510014492526770
20John Coffey0.673170.5049510.8166-0.32300187.6110020513867102100
21CPA Rankings0.666670.5251010.9995-0.02460187.9480026717889136123
22Pigskin Index0.636700.5400811.00770.28150188.5160026717097128109
23Beck Elo0.670410.5482611.0452-0.67370188.8730026717988142117
24Steven Jens0.662920.5375511.0963-1.06020189.9930026717790136117
25ARGH Power Ratings0.685260.5357111.0219-0.76290190.0730025117279120104
26Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.647940.5039111.0881-0.89690190.9630026717394129127
27Roger Johnson0.684930.5601910.9551-0.97370190.987002191506912195
28Dokter Entropy0.617980.4787611.07820.20620191.38700267165102124135
29Sagarin Elo0.659180.5444011.0281-0.11830191.4130026717691141118
30CPA Retro Rankings0.670410.5019310.9536-0.02750191.8530026717988130129
31NutShell Sports0.640450.5135111.12580.04860192.4550026717196133126
32Stat Fox0.640450.5020611.21740.35630192.7490026717196122121
33Michael Robert Ratings0.642550.5087011.11920.16680193.4300023515184117113
34Sonny Moore0.689140.5135111.1158-0.92680193.5100026718483133126
35PerformanZ Ratings0.654140.5348811.2020-1.39970193.5690026617492138120
36Eric Hollobaugh0.707320.5445511.0438-0.10860194.177002051456011092
37Dunkel Index0.603000.5387611.34520.26120194.29300267161106139119
38Reistertown Index0.662920.4916711.3071-0.88760194.3230026717790118122
39NutShell Retro0.645420.5020411.1854-0.76410194.7500025116289123122
40Sourjax0.657530.5094311.18040.57140196.6430021914475108104
41Dwiggins0.684620.5542211.20380.30930197.2210026017882138111
42Scoring Effeciency0.635340.5000011.3108-0.23240199.1390026616997129129
43Pigskin Herald0.672930.5177911.3695-0.60640199.5790026617987131122
44Jeff Imes0.659180.5675711.37510.96980203.3480026717691147112
45Tom Benson0.599250.4845011.6842-0.35010204.29300267160107125133
46Jeff Self0.635000.5329911.3050-0.46960206.470002001277310592
47Pythagorean Ratings0.670410.5173711.4344-1.36430206.8420026717988134125
48Upset Report0.657370.4895411.4382-2.43920208.4230025116586117122
49Least Squares0.655430.5232611.7110-1.52690209.2330026717592135123
50Lee Burdorf0.674160.5426411.60480.20040211.5370026718087140118
51Sport Trends0.659180.5000011.6221-1.38010213.0070026717691129129
52Deslock Rankings0.665180.5162811.9157-0.94660215.8560022414975111104
53What If Sports0.636720.4879011.97080.31970221.6880025616393121127
54Covers.com0.561800.4710411.9046-0.85640224.51700267150117122137
55Stephen Kerns0.632960.5096511.9218-0.60780225.1640026716998132127
56Sports Report Elo0.656250.5483911.9478-1.61560227.0230025616888136112
57Grid Iron Gold0.600810.4786312.0141-1.52170227.7820024814999112122
58Least Abs. Val Reg0.610490.5215712.2046-1.65480227.98500267163104133122
59Logistic Regression0.671230.5324111.7291-2.47790228.2060021914772115101
60The Sports Report0.656250.5241912.3973-1.57610236.4940025616888130118
61LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.5348812.2272-1.47210243.73700267164103138120
62TSR Slots0.589840.4898814.7684-2.00540363.18000256151105121126
63Sports Report Pred0.609380.4817814.7464-2.14390369.30500256156100119128
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses