Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1CPA Rankings0.620440.5367611.4471-0.07980211.2040013785527363
2Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4926511.4537-0.16180205.4020013788496769
3CPA Retro Rankings0.642340.4411811.6105-0.04230210.5720013788496076
4David and Pasteur0.635040.4926511.40961.67200208.8440013787506769
5Reistertown Index0.635040.4885511.81750.53280215.2610013787506467
6LS - w/ team HFA0.569340.4360912.6504-0.09380242.8650013778595875
7Stephen Kerns0.627740.5522411.33430.49930202.2360013786517460
8Pat Laffaye0.627740.5447811.36280.56720210.8370013786517361
9Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.44621.48400211.9890013786516868
10Jim Armstrong0.627740.5000011.50871.79950207.6070013786516767
11Nutshell Combo0.627740.4264711.55371.40820204.9970013786515878
12YourLinx0.627740.4485311.82911.39090213.9980013786516175
13Kambour Rating0.620440.5955911.21571.04010203.5180013785528155
14Pigskin Index0.620440.4651211.34311.67980202.8880013785526069
15Least Abs. Val Reg0.642340.4191212.1285-0.19340228.8880013788495779
16Least Squares0.620440.5441211.6472-0.10280216.5020013785527462
17NutShell Sports0.583940.4222212.14261.44050227.1720013780575778
18Strengthranking.com0.613140.5882411.11540.51850198.5540013784538056
19Sonny Moore0.613140.4632411.38680.91180205.5130013784536373
20Roger Johnson0.605840.5303011.2912-0.19050204.6220013783547062
21Sportrends0.605840.5581411.36501.71600209.5090013783547257
22What If Sports0.605840.4545512.2175-0.80440225.2950013783546072
23Pythagorean Ratings0.598540.5294111.21241.46410205.3630013782557264
24PerformanZ Ratings0.598540.5185211.55230.47720208.6730013782557065
25Dunkel Index0.598540.4485311.63420.53880212.0110013782556175
26Beck Elo0.591240.5073511.39340.88800205.7280013781566967
27Lee Burdorf0.591240.4887212.04601.43870236.2920013781566568
28Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.649640.5367611.18251.62500199.3950013789487363
29Game Time Decision0.678830.4961811.03271.83620192.9410013793446566
30Line (updated)0.6788311.12411.14600198.979001379344
31Computer Adjusted Line0.671530.5555611.10221.13140197.8850013792452016
32Michael Robert Ratings0.671530.4926511.14610.75330205.3470013792456769
33System Average0.664230.5220611.02441.04090194.4160013791467165
34Dokter Entropy0.664230.5037011.07271.71170197.2380013791466867
35Logistic Regression0.554740.4962411.64740.32510204.8130013776616667
36Sagarin Elo0.656930.5147111.15091.10260192.7710013790477066
37NFL Pickles0.656930.5746311.2759-0.49930200.7680013790477757
38Nutshell Girl0.656930.4852911.28421.51510199.6170013790476670
39Yarnell0.656930.5481511.68382.19740212.0590013790477461
40Sagarin0.649640.5514710.79451.11790188.7820013789487561
41System Median0.649640.5367611.04911.12760195.0170013789487363
42Hank Trexler0.642340.5038811.19710.35040200.3930013788496564
43JFM Power Ratings0.649640.4264711.29241.52580199.5720013789485878
44PickingPros.com0.649640.5588211.34730.69910209.9970013789487660
45Upset Report0.649640.5581411.71530.63500217.9610013789487257
46RP Excel0.569340.4592612.82481.00000264.2340013778596273
47Massey Ratings0.642340.5629610.78240.94010189.6480013788497659
48Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5955910.81571.05120192.6920013788498155
49John Coffey0.642340.5514710.95991.41810193.3690013788497561
50Stat Fox0.642340.4341110.98551.74470193.4900013788495673
51Wunderdog Sports0.642340.5126110.99270.40880193.4150013788496158
52Covers.com0.642340.5447811.08501.69400198.2400013788497361
53Ashby AccuRatings0.642340.5426411.19011.51180202.1680013788497059
54Steven Jens0.602940.5000011.45741.90440204.1610013682546666
55Line (opening)0.698530.5531910.99261.05150195.0650013695415242
56Atomic Football0.626870.5112811.36810.91760205.1440013484506865
57Nationalsportsrankings0.595240.4480011.63271.38600214.2610012675515669
58Bihl Rankings0.642280.5691110.88802.23170191.6720012379447053
59Austin Sports0.644630.6166710.98920.95350199.9510012178437446
60ARGH Power Ratings0.666670.5229411.31460.20210200.5650012080405752
61Cover810.686960.5045011.04780.43570193.0530011579365655
62Dwiggins0.640350.5089311.89481.27730230.0190011473415755
63Brent Craig0.572730.4761911.52761.70950213.3490011063475055
64Eric Hollobaugh0.626170.6261710.43681.23500183.2580010767406740
65Brian Gabrielle0.612900.4915312.10483.37900226.360006238242930
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses