Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Sagarin Recent0.375000.5000012.55632.17870268.039001661088
2Line (updated)0.437500.6000012.34381.40630266.29800167964
3Dokter Entropy0.437500.4000012.36381.34630282.19800167969
4System Average0.437500.3125012.63133.06250264.449001679511
5Lou St. John0.437500.5625012.67131.78250275.93600167997
6FF-Winners0.437500.3125013.12502.75000273.402001679511
7Points Per Game0.437500.4375013.67063.72190281.10900167979
8Stat Fox0.437500.3125014.99944.62560337.619001679511
9Game Time Decision0.375000.6000012.31252.68750264.736001661096
10System Median0.375000.4000012.37752.77120256.498001661069
11Sagarin Rating0.375000.5000012.55632.17870268.039001661088
12Sagarin Points0.375000.5000012.55632.17870268.039001661088
13Computer Adjusted Line0.437500.5454512.31251.68750265.07200167965
14Sagarin Golden Mean0.375000.5000012.55632.17870268.039001661088
15Donchess Inference0.375000.3125012.66871.70630269.6690016610511
16TeamRankings.com0.375000.3333312.78751.78750274.9830016610510
17Pigskin Index0.375000.3571413.00062.50060294.364001661059
18Pi-Rate Bias0.375000.3125013.06883.81880272.5130016610511
19Pi-Rate Ratings0.375000.3125013.08753.67500273.1310016610511
20Daniel Curry Index0.375000.4375013.21003.48870289.676001661079
21Pi-Rate Mean0.375000.3750013.23753.21250287.0640016610610
22Versus Sports Simulator0.375000.4375013.75694.59190291.964001661079
23TuringFantasy0.375000.3571414.87500.12500388.124001661059
24ESPN FPI0.312500.4375012.87883.09250277.590001651179
25Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.500000.6250011.83750.67500250.189001688106
26LS - w/ team HFA0.625000.5625012.27815.06440243.389001610697
27Talisman Red0.625000.5000012.50561.88060255.716001610688
28PerformanZ Ratings0.625000.5000012.55311.75440258.488001610688
29Ashby AccuRatings0.562500.3750012.31193.18810246.048001697610
30Stephen Kerns0.562500.5000012.42504.98130239.06000169788
31Sonny Moore0.562500.3125013.02882.52120274.826001697511
32Least Squares0.562500.3750013.03753.40750282.691001697610
33Odds Shark0.562500.3750014.60006.68750327.654001697610
34Dwiggins0.562500.2500014.92817.71560331.592001697412
35ARGH Power Ratings0.500000.6428611.57812.20310226.63800168895
36Massey Ratings0.500000.6250011.62001.38120236.732001688106
37Turnover Adj. regressio0.625000.5000011.85942.96560241.941001610688
38Line (Midweek)0.5000012.21881.21880268.954001688
39Scoring Effeciency0.500000.5000012.75943.85440262.11300168888
40Least Abs. Val Reg0.500000.4375012.96193.08940282.78000168879
41Pythagorean Ratings0.500000.4375013.02004.06620267.57500168879
42Logistic Regression0.500000.4375013.29372.42370293.50300168879
43Beck Elo0.500000.3750013.36814.96190304.100001688610
44Laffaye RWP0.500000.3750013.64005.46380283.714001688610
45Cleanup Hitter0.437500.5625012.00003.87500248.81200167997
46Kasulis ESP20.437500.6250012.09381.13130260.574001679106
47Line (opening)0.437500.5333312.18751.75000253.80900167987
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses