ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2022-02-13

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.58803	0.46290	11.3659	-0.07280	202.82200	285	167	117	131	152
2	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.59859	0.54064	11.0979	1.03900	198.38600	285	170	114	153	130
3	Pi-Rate Mean	0.59859	0.50709	11.1453	1.05820	198.97100	285	170	114	143	139
4	Massey Ratings	0.59859	0.48592	11.1458	-1.50400	200.23400	285	170	114	138	146
5	Pi-Rate Bias	0.59859	0.50530	11.2214	1.04670	201.84000	285	170	114	143	140
6	Points Per Game	0.59859	0.49823	11.6405	-0.16470	215.82000	285	170	114	141	142
7	Versus Sports Simulator	0.59859	0.50177	11.8896	0.74790	221.29000	285	170	114	142	141
8	Line (opening)	0.59507	0.55794	10.7421	-0.06840	187.98000	285	169	115	130	103
9	Scoring Effeciency	0.59507	0.46479	11.3639	0.92310	202.07600	285	169	115	132	152
10	Odds Shark	0.59507	0.47518	13.1131	5.20990	274.07300	285	169	115	134	148
11	Sagarin Points	0.59155	0.49648	11.1652	-0.16200	196.91100	285	168	116	141	143
12	Ashby AccuRatings	0.59155	0.45956	11.2071	0.21830	195.65300	285	168	116	125	147
13	Donchess Inference	0.63380	0.48727	10.8414	0.27440	188.49600	285	180	104	134	141
14	Dwiggins	0.58803	0.46290	12.1698	2.56700	224.21200	285	167	117	131	152
15	Sagarin Rating	0.58451	0.50352	11.3617	-0.09670	201.08600	285	166	118	143	141
16	Beck Elo	0.58451	0.47183	11.8086	1.93940	219.57200	285	166	118	134	150
17	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.58451	0.46996	11.8642	-1.08150	220.73100	285	166	118	133	150
18	Least Squares	0.58099	0.49110	11.7035	-1.49230	215.96000	285	165	119	138	143
19	Logistic Regression	0.58099	0.47122	12.1984	-1.57320	236.25600	285	165	119	131	147
20	Lou St. John	0.57394	0.52113	11.3836	-1.30620	208.44400	285	163	121	148	136
21	LS - w/ team HFA	0.57394	0.47887	12.6937	-1.76410	258.37400	285	163	121	136	148
22	Stephen Kerns	0.56690	0.48763	11.9756	0.58050	220.92200	285	161	123	138	145
23	Cleanup Hitter	0.56338	0.49635	11.4773	0.75120	211.07600	285	160	124	136	138
24	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.55634	0.49643	12.1235	-1.88090	228.50400	285	158	126	139	141
25	System Average	0.61268	0.46479	11.0761	0.13250	194.71100	285	174	110	132	152
26	Line (Midweek)	0.62676		10.7702	-0.31400	187.66500	285	178	106
27	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.62324	0.48214	11.1512	-1.17510	199.01200	285	177	107	135	145
28	Sonny Moore	0.63380	0.50352	11.1409	-0.04000	199.94800	285	180	104	143	141
29	Line (updated)	0.61972	0.59740	10.6807	-0.16490	184.57700	285	176	108	92	62
30	Daniel Curry Index	0.61972	0.49648	11.4115	0.93530	204.40400	285	176	108	141	143
31	Computer Adjusted Line	0.61620	0.56497	10.6982	-0.15090	185.10300	285	175	109	100	77
32	Pigskin Index	0.60211	0.47232	11.1684	1.31610	198.13500	285	171	113	128	143
33	Dokter Entropy	0.61268	0.48936	10.9539	0.52740	193.40200	285	174	110	138	144
34	PerformanZ Ratings	0.61268	0.50000	11.3922	-1.58750	210.40000	285	174	110	142	142
35	Talisman Red	0.61268	0.52650	11.4219	-2.15760	207.45700	285	174	110	149	134
36	Sagarin Recent	0.61268	0.43463	11.7557	-0.02460	213.11100	285	174	110	123	160
37	System Median	0.60915	0.47445	11.0641	0.10030	194.17500	285	173	111	130	144
38	Pythagorean Ratings	0.60915	0.48944	11.3612	0.91230	201.28800	285	173	111	139	145
39	Kasulis ESP2	0.65141	0.50357	10.8193	-0.75190	189.18000	285	185	99	141	139
40	Stat Fox	0.60563	0.49638	11.5194	1.18290	209.11200	285	172	112	137	139
41	FF-Winners	0.60211	0.53390	10.8456	-0.04560	190.38900	285	171	113	126	110
42	TeamRankings.com	0.60211	0.50542	11.0042	0.28910	193.51800	285	171	113	140	137
43	Laffaye RWP	0.58304	0.46996	12.0298	1.79510	226.03100	284	165	118	133	150
44	TuringFantasy	0.56071	0.50554	11.5374	-1.19570	217.49000	281	157	123	137	134
45	ESPN FPI	0.60432	0.48201	10.9382	0.33750	192.14100	279	168	110	134	144
46	Dunkel Index	0.62313	0.48134	11.1689	0.89320	199.21300	269	167	101	129	139
47	ARGH Power Ratings	0.61194	0.48235	11.2500	-0.40800	202.37000	269	164	104	123	132
48	RP Excel	0.63296	0.52918	11.2313	-2.38810	206.94900	268	169	98	136	121
49	RP Excel 2	0.62406	0.52692	12.6517	-1.65540	254.41700	267	166	100	137	123
50	Game Time Decision	0.58730	0.47436	11.1385	1.81880	199.55800	253	148	104	111	123
51	Dan Hanson	0.61111	0.47619	11.9103	-0.90360	223.28100	253	154	98	120	132
52	Roundtable	0.60699	0.51376	12.1565	1.22620	235.27100	230	139	90	112	106
53	Roger Johnson	0.59804	0.49268	11.6787	-1.76070	219.98300	205	122	82	101	104
54	John Coffey	0.58333	0.46341	11.6434	-0.21900	217.37200	205	119	85	95	110
55	Bihl Rankings	0.58046	0.50575	11.6858	-1.52130	223.56300	175	101	73	88	86

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses