Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1JFM Power Ratings0.636700.5559811.01380.05710186.9980026717097144115
2System Median0.655430.5607810.8281-0.36570182.4750026717592143112
3Least Squares0.655430.5232611.7110-1.52690209.2330026717592135123
4System Average0.651690.5637110.7819-0.43180180.9940026717493146113
5Sagarin Predictive0.651690.5852710.7894-0.11970183.6860026717493151107
6Kambour Rating0.651690.5405410.8506-0.50390183.4020026717493140119
7Sonny Moore0.689140.5135111.1158-0.92680193.5100026718483133126
8NutShell Sports0.640450.5135111.12580.04860192.4550026717196133126
9Stat Fox0.640450.5020611.21740.35630192.7490026717196122121
10Pigskin Index0.636700.5400811.00770.28150188.5160026717097128109
11Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.647940.5039111.0881-0.89690190.9630026717394129127
12Stephen Kerns0.632960.5096511.9218-0.60780225.1640026716998132127
13Ashby AccuRatings0.625470.4917411.00400.37540186.05100267167100119123
14Dokter Entropy0.617980.4787611.07820.20620191.38700267165102124135
15LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.5348812.2272-1.47210243.73700267164103138120
16Least Abs. Val Reg0.610490.5215712.2046-1.65480227.98500267163104133122
17Dunkel Index0.603000.5387611.34520.26120194.29300267161106139119
18Tom Benson0.599250.4845011.6842-0.35010204.29300267160107125133
19Covers.com0.561800.4710411.9046-0.85640224.51700267150117122137
20Jeff Imes0.659180.5675711.37510.96980203.3480026717691147112
21Line (updated)0.6853910.7135-0.39140178.8580026718384
22Computer Adjusted Line0.681650.5952410.6966-0.39700178.31200267182855034
23Line (opening)0.674160.4918910.8727-0.21720182.16100267180879194
24Lee Burdorf0.674160.5426411.60480.20040211.5370026718087140118
25CPA Retro Rankings0.670410.5019310.9536-0.02750191.8530026717988130129
26Beck Elo0.670410.5482611.0452-0.67370188.8730026717988142117
27Pythagorean Ratings0.670410.5173711.4344-1.36430206.8420026717988134125
28Sagarin0.666670.5697710.7854-0.11250183.9790026717889147111
29Hank Trexler0.666670.5000010.8652-0.67790185.2230026717889125125
30CPA Rankings0.666670.5251010.9995-0.02460187.9480026717889136123
31Sport Trends0.659180.5000011.6221-1.38010213.0070026717691129129
32Sagarin Elo0.659180.5444011.0281-0.11830191.4130026717691141118
33Reistertown Index0.662920.4916711.3071-0.88760194.3230026717790118122
34Steven Jens0.662920.5375511.0963-1.06020189.9930026717790136117
35Pigskin Herald0.672930.5177911.3695-0.60640199.5790026617987131122
36PerformanZ Ratings0.654140.5348811.2020-1.39970193.5690026617492138120
37Scoring Effeciency0.635340.5000011.3108-0.23240199.1390026616997129129
38Brian Gabrielle0.656490.5423710.89120.26950184.8350026217290128108
39Dwiggins0.684620.5542211.20380.30930197.2210026017882138111
40Sports Report Elo0.656250.5483911.9478-1.61560227.0230025616888136112
41TSR Slots0.589840.4898814.7684-2.00540363.18000256151105121126
42What If Sports0.636720.4879011.97080.31970221.6880025616393121127
43Sports Report Pred0.609380.4817814.7464-2.14390369.30500256156100119128
44The Sports Report0.656250.5241912.3973-1.57610236.4940025616888130118
45NutShell Retro0.645420.5020411.1854-0.76410194.7500025116289123122
46Upset Report0.657370.4895411.4382-2.43920208.4230025116586117122
47ARGH Power Ratings0.685260.5357111.0219-0.76290190.0730025117279120104
48Grid Iron Gold0.600810.4786312.0141-1.52170227.7820024814999112122
49Michael Robert Ratings0.642550.5087011.11920.16680193.4300023515184117113
50Deslock Rankings0.665180.5162811.9157-0.94660215.8560022414975111104
51Logistic Regression0.671230.5324111.7291-2.47790228.2060021914772115101
52Sourjax0.657530.5094311.18040.57140196.6430021914475108104
53Roger Johnson0.684930.5601910.9551-0.97370190.987002191506912195
54Eric Hollobaugh0.707320.5445511.0438-0.10860194.177002051456011092
55John Coffey0.673170.5049510.8166-0.32300187.6110020513867102100
56Mike Greenfield0.697560.5445510.9020-1.44340185.961002051436211092
57Jeff Self0.635000.5329911.3050-0.46960206.470002001277310592
58Ed Bemiss0.680000.5578910.6620-0.74490182.358002001366410684
59Bihl Rankings0.690320.5657910.69990.44190176.43200155107488666
60Viacheslav0.638890.4890511.01490.57120187.5510014492526770
61TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
62Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
63Game Time Decision0.641670.5486711.0752-0.45800182.1850012077436251
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses