Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2017 Retrodiction Results
Through
| Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
| 1 | Least Squares | 0.70000 | 0.00000 | 8.3406 | -0.08510 | 114.07200 | 260 | 182 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Roger Johnson | 0.70476 | 0.00000 | 8.5210 | 0.56140 | 119.64600 | 210 | 148 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Points per game | 0.63462 | 0.00000 | 9.1475 | -0.79290 | 133.48800 | 260 | 165 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Ashby Accuratings | 0.65385 | 0.00000 | 8.3731 | -0.75000 | 116.74800 | 260 | 170 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Sonny Moore | 0.67692 | 0.00000 | 8.5593 | -0.47580 | 119.62600 | 260 | 176 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | NutShell Sports | 0.68077 | 0.00000 | 8.6503 | 0.20310 | 129.64300 | 260 | 177 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Stat Fox | 0.68077 | 0.00000 | 8.5808 | 0.25770 | 120.56500 | 260 | 177 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Covers.com | 0.68462 | 0.00000 | 8.6500 | 0.21150 | 126.85600 | 260 | 178 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Ed Kambour | 0.68846 | 0.00000 | 8.3140 | -0.27570 | 115.43300 | 260 | 179 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Sagarin Predictive | 0.68846 | 0.00000 | 8.2990 | 0.03510 | 113.23000 | 260 | 179 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Turnover Adj. Reg. | 0.69231 | 0.00000 | 8.6479 | 0.18210 | 122.10600 | 260 | 180 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Pigskin Index | 0.70000 | 0.00000 | 8.4654 | 0.23460 | 119.55700 | 260 | 182 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Sagarin Recent | 0.74231 | 0.00000 | 8.2827 | 0.27350 | 114.88800 | 260 | 193 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.70769 | 0.00000 | 8.4065 | 0.22010 | 115.87800 | 260 | 184 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Dwiggins | 0.71154 | 0.00000 | 8.5217 | 0.19210 | 120.84000 | 260 | 185 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.71538 | 0.00000 | 8.6789 | 0.19960 | 124.97400 | 260 | 186 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Sagarin | 0.71538 | 0.00000 | 8.2706 | 0.13030 | 113.48400 | 260 | 186 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.71923 | 0.00000 | 8.2417 | -0.37780 | 115.37300 | 260 | 187 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.71923 | 0.00000 | 7.8615 | 0.27780 | 99.34200 | 260 | 187 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | YourLinx | 0.72308 | 0.00000 | 8.6924 | 0.16780 | 132.41600 | 260 | 188 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Logistic Regression | 0.72308 | 0.00000 | 8.6112 | -1.42160 | 127.31700 | 260 | 188 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Beck Elo | 0.72308 | 0.00000 | 8.4575 | 0.23450 | 119.89000 | 260 | 188 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.73077 | 0.00000 | 8.0457 | -0.09080 | 123.01400 | 260 | 190 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.73846 | 0.00000 | 8.2737 | 0.27520 | 114.41700 | 260 | 192 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses