Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
2LS - w/ team HFA0.635040.5661811.1518-1.71530209.4400013787507759
3JFM Power Ratings0.642340.5514711.1091-0.19400184.3940013788497561
4Pigskin Index0.642340.5454511.11690.00770186.0060013788496655
5Roger Johnson0.649640.5441211.1088-1.33210186.6690013789487462
6System Average0.642340.5367611.0929-0.67950183.1260013788497363
7Stat Fox0.656930.5360011.44520.20470194.6570013790476758
8Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5333311.3155-1.02920194.3700013788497263
9TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
10Game Time Decision0.632080.5252511.02850.15110178.5850010667395247
11Ed Bemiss0.676920.5238111.0984-0.87220190.4980013088426660
12NutShell Retro0.664230.5220611.1920-0.90940188.7690013791467165
13Logistic Regression0.649640.5220611.4815-2.45570204.8290013789487165
14CPA Rankings0.656930.5220611.10010.41070186.8820013790477165
15Least Abs. Val Reg0.627740.5188011.7536-1.92310209.0140013786516964
16Sagarin0.664230.5185211.2663-1.02310192.0710013791467065
17PerformanZ Ratings0.664230.5147111.3406-1.48230196.0850013791467066
18Pythagorean Ratings0.671530.5147111.2247-1.06580193.5890013792457066
19Jeff Imes0.649640.5147111.5583-0.06390204.9610013789487066
20Kambour Rating0.671530.5147111.0061-0.81280185.2150013792457066
21Michael Robert Ratings0.656930.5147111.16260.04390191.4850013790477066
22Mike Greenfield0.649640.5147111.2591-1.85910191.9060013789487066
23Sports Report Pred0.690480.5120011.9143-1.52570235.4930012687396461
24Steven Jens0.627740.5075811.1037-0.77660185.4660013786516765
25Least Squares0.649640.5073511.4682-1.53200194.5590013789486967
26Eric Hollobaugh0.678830.5073511.4691-0.13480198.5390013793446967
27TSR Slots0.650790.5040012.1663-1.49720237.1480012682446362
28Sourjax0.649640.5037011.10720.38420191.9750013789486867
29Lee Burdorf0.642340.5037012.2212-0.28250227.3510013788496867
30System Median0.642340.5037011.1185-0.64190185.0070013788496867
31Sport Trends0.664230.5000011.5919-2.64150211.8050013791466868
32Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.2750-0.21070193.9470013786516868
33Bihl Rankings0.663370.5000011.29790.26430186.4740010167345050
34John Coffey0.642340.5000011.2587-0.53200190.8990013788496868
35Dunkel Index0.598540.4963011.7773-0.13230203.9760013782556768
36Hank Trexler0.649640.4961211.0365-0.89050184.2720013789486465
37The Sports Report0.666670.4960011.7728-1.56130208.5240012684426263
38Sports Report Elo0.682540.4960012.2609-1.30500227.0320012686406263
39Upset Report0.669420.4957311.2612-2.00660202.8740012181405859
40Grid Iron Gold0.627120.4955812.0676-1.49980225.6040011874445657
41Sonny Moore0.671530.4926511.4588-1.20660196.7170013792456769
42NutShell Sports0.627740.4926511.3371-0.15140193.0050013786516769
43CPA Retro Rankings0.678830.4926511.07070.44640191.5360013793446769
44Jeff Self0.634780.4912311.2537-0.31040193.1860011573425658
45ARGH Power Ratings0.644630.4910711.5702-1.25620197.2210012178435557
46Pigskin Herald0.654410.4850711.7956-1.24410201.4080013689476569
47Reistertown Index0.664230.4803111.5255-0.95620200.0590013791466166
48Ashby AccuRatings0.649640.4761911.26280.15360188.3850013789486066
49Brian Gabrielle0.651520.4758111.3411-0.10560191.0640013286465965
50Dwiggins0.676920.4728711.7077-0.42920207.7920013088426168
51What If Sports0.650790.4720011.8233-0.30060204.5560012682445966
52Stephen Kerns0.635040.4705912.3832-0.91750234.4810013787506472
53Line (opening)0.686130.4693910.9745-0.60220179.4590013794434652
54Computer Adjusted Line0.700730.4651210.8796-0.71900178.4690013796412023
55Deslock Rankings0.670210.4623711.8131-0.41180209.475009463314350
56Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4586511.4912-1.43580195.7620013788496172
57Dokter Entropy0.627740.4558811.2387-0.37680193.7140013786516274
58Sagarin Elo0.649640.4485311.5644-0.99200200.8200013789486175
59Beck Elo0.656930.4485311.3983-1.04360194.8090013790476175
60Covers.com0.496350.4338212.6215-1.09440245.7480013768695977
61Tom Benson0.613140.4264712.15970.33110212.9830013784535878
62Viacheslav0.428570.2142913.52295.17860227.371001468311
63Line (updated)0.7007310.8358-0.73360177.841001379641
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses