Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2022-10-03
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (updated)0.587300.724148.0469-0.04690101.44500643726218
2Cleanup Hitter0.571430.583338.31231.64110128.030006436273525
3LS - w/ team HFA0.619050.564529.8641-0.15440162.140006439243527
4Computer Adjusted Line0.587300.511638.21090.10160105.535006437262221
5Dan Hanson0.593750.500009.65126.81000187.584003219131515
6Odds Shark0.523810.500009.72524.96580148.501006433303131
7Dokter Entropy0.587300.500008.56670.40330114.095006437263131
8Scoring Effeciency0.634920.483878.54341.77530131.795006440233032
9Dwiggins0.460320.4838711.36631.37280195.939006429343032
10RP Excel 20.619050.466678.9531-0.01560134.578006439242832
11ESPN FPI0.539680.451618.93230.34700127.597006434292834
12Dunkel Index0.507940.4516110.0423-1.10140157.831006432312834
13FF-Winners0.634920.438608.40630.28130122.249006440232532
14RP Excel0.507940.438609.9375-0.53130160.152006432312532
15Donchess Inference0.587300.435488.73280.91410127.001006437262735
16Sonny Moore0.571430.435489.15840.60590138.078006436272735
17Roundtable0.468750.4333312.00002.75000217.576003215171317
18Stat Fox0.619050.431039.81231.12520148.446006439242533
19Logistic Regression0.523810.4193510.4078-0.67720170.873006433302636
20Beck Elo0.492060.4193510.07841.92120149.744006431322636
21Ashby AccuRatings0.523810.419358.90630.56340129.740006433302636
22Least Abs. Val Reg0.460320.4193511.16690.32630199.462006429342636
23Points Per Game0.571430.4193510.03580.32920165.886006436272636
24Line (opening)0.587300.418188.5156-0.04690116.219006437262332
25Game Time Decision0.555560.410718.96081.72700124.902006435282333
26Versus Sports Simulator0.539680.4032310.62860.01360169.377006434292537
27TuringFantasy0.533330.400009.56252.81250139.06800168769
28Brent Craig0.564520.393449.53870.30760141.685006335272437
29ARGH Power Ratings0.555560.393448.6992-0.41020132.944006435282437
30Sagarin Rating0.603170.387108.95050.78890130.035006438252438
31System Average0.555560.387109.04700.83230131.198006435282438
32Talisman Red0.571430.387109.31480.58670141.484006436272438
33Pi-Rate Mean0.603170.387109.33751.24370136.628006438252438
34Pythagorean Ratings0.603170.387109.87611.98450157.675006438252438
35Massey Ratings0.523810.387108.9053-0.03160129.888006433302438
36Daniel Curry Index0.587300.387109.67501.30660145.829006437262438
37Pigskin Index0.634920.383338.87471.53190115.865006440232337
38Turnover Adj. regressio0.571430.377059.45380.40370145.457006436272338
39Pi-Rate Ratings0.555560.370979.75161.21090147.431006435282339
40Sagarin Golden Mean0.587300.370979.31920.80640137.067006437262339
41TeamRankings.com0.619050.360668.85620.10000124.725006439242239
42Stephen Kerns0.476190.3606611.13830.51330178.726006430332239
43Sagarin Recent0.634920.354848.75530.73090126.929006440232240
44Pi-Rate Bias0.539680.354849.68891.21730145.479006434292240
45Lou St. John0.650790.354848.55200.00390120.726006441222240
46Sagarin Points0.634920.354849.04500.74220130.833006440232240
47Least Squares0.523810.3442610.28730.76270166.607006433302140
48Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.444440.3389810.07030.74220151.372006428352039
49Laffaye RWP0.507940.3387112.19771.12230229.264006432312141
50PerformanZ Ratings0.539680.338719.9462-0.08090154.526006434292141
51System Median0.571430.333338.91950.77050129.703006436272040
52Kasulis ESP20.507940.310349.12810.45310127.683006432311840
53Roger Johnson0.312500.2666720.6338-0.18120584.7190016511411
54Line (Midweek)0.587308.2109-0.05470108.35500643726
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses