Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-09-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.500000.6428611.57812.20310226.63800168895
2Kasulis ESP20.437500.6250012.09381.13130260.574001679106
3Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.500000.6250011.83750.67500250.189001688106
4Massey Ratings0.500000.6250011.62001.38120236.732001688106
5Game Time Decision0.375000.6000012.31252.68750264.736001661096
6Line (updated)0.437500.6000012.34381.40630266.29800167964
7LS - w/ team HFA0.625000.5625012.27815.06440243.389001610697
8Lou St. John0.437500.5625012.67131.78250275.93600167997
9Cleanup Hitter0.437500.5625012.00003.87500248.81200167997
10Computer Adjusted Line0.437500.5454512.31251.68750265.07200167965
11Line (opening)0.437500.5333312.18751.75000253.80900167987
12Sagarin Recent0.375000.5000012.55632.17870268.039001661088
13Talisman Red0.625000.5000012.50561.88060255.716001610688
14PerformanZ Ratings0.625000.5000012.55311.75440258.488001610688
15Sagarin Rating0.375000.5000012.55632.17870268.039001661088
16Sagarin Points0.375000.5000012.55632.17870268.039001661088
17Turnover Adj. regressio0.625000.5000011.85942.96560241.941001610688
18Stephen Kerns0.562500.5000012.42504.98130239.06000169788
19Sagarin Golden Mean0.375000.5000012.55632.17870268.039001661088
20Scoring Effeciency0.500000.5000012.75943.85440262.11300168888
21Daniel Curry Index0.375000.4375013.21003.48870289.676001661079
22Logistic Regression0.500000.4375013.29372.42370293.50300168879
23Pythagorean Ratings0.500000.4375013.02004.06620267.57500168879
24Least Abs. Val Reg0.500000.4375012.96193.08940282.78000168879
25Versus Sports Simulator0.375000.4375013.75694.59190291.964001661079
26Points Per Game0.437500.4375013.67063.72190281.10900167979
27ESPN FPI0.312500.4375012.87883.09250277.590001651179
28Dokter Entropy0.437500.4000012.36381.34630282.19800167969
29System Median0.375000.4000012.37752.77120256.498001661069
30Odds Shark0.562500.3750014.60006.68750327.654001697610
31Pi-Rate Mean0.375000.3750013.23753.21250287.0640016610610
32Ashby AccuRatings0.562500.3750012.31193.18810246.048001697610
33Laffaye RWP0.500000.3750013.64005.46380283.714001688610
34Beck Elo0.500000.3750013.36814.96190304.100001688610
35Least Squares0.562500.3750013.03753.40750282.691001697610
36Pigskin Index0.375000.3571413.00062.50060294.364001661059
37TuringFantasy0.375000.3571414.87500.12500388.124001661059
38TeamRankings.com0.375000.3333312.78751.78750274.9830016610510
39Stat Fox0.437500.3125014.99944.62560337.619001679511
40FF-Winners0.437500.3125013.12502.75000273.402001679511
41System Average0.437500.3125012.63133.06250264.449001679511
42Sonny Moore0.562500.3125013.02882.52120274.826001697511
43Donchess Inference0.375000.3125012.66871.70630269.6690016610511
44Pi-Rate Bias0.375000.3125013.06883.81880272.5130016610511
45Pi-Rate Ratings0.375000.3125013.08753.67500273.1310016610511
46Dwiggins0.562500.2500014.92817.71560331.592001697412
47Line (Midweek)0.5000012.21881.21880268.954001688
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses