Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2020 Season Totals
Through 2021-02-07
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Dokter Entropy | 0.66418 | 0.55725 | 9.8389 | 2.02110 | 163.25300 | 269 | 178 | 90 | 146 | 116 |
2 | Line (opening) | 0.63806 | 0.55066 | 9.8755 | 1.80110 | 161.10000 | 269 | 171 | 97 | 125 | 102 |
3 | Pi-Rate Mean | 0.67537 | 0.55039 | 9.8959 | 1.77180 | 165.62400 | 269 | 181 | 87 | 142 | 116 |
4 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.65299 | 0.55000 | 9.9317 | 1.25220 | 164.33300 | 269 | 175 | 93 | 143 | 117 |
5 | Donchess Inference | 0.68651 | 0.54733 | 10.1625 | 1.42570 | 172.37900 | 253 | 173 | 79 | 133 | 110 |
6 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.66791 | 0.54717 | 9.8216 | 1.12640 | 161.85400 | 269 | 179 | 89 | 87 | 72 |
7 | Turnover Adj. regressio | 0.61567 | 0.54406 | 10.3399 | 0.68010 | 174.97100 | 269 | 165 | 103 | 142 | 119 |
8 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.66045 | 0.54198 | 10.0280 | 0.36990 | 166.98800 | 269 | 177 | 91 | 142 | 120 |
9 | TeamRankings.com | 0.64925 | 0.53906 | 9.8949 | 2.02650 | 166.34400 | 269 | 174 | 94 | 138 | 118 |
10 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.63806 | 0.53817 | 10.3445 | 2.87090 | 176.54600 | 269 | 171 | 97 | 141 | 121 |
11 | Points Per Game | 0.66045 | 0.53817 | 10.4029 | 1.89460 | 180.70100 | 269 | 177 | 91 | 141 | 121 |
12 | Pi-Rate Bias | 0.67164 | 0.53543 | 9.9576 | 1.76730 | 167.04400 | 269 | 180 | 88 | 136 | 118 |
13 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.61278 | 0.53516 | 11.4283 | 0.55780 | 210.27000 | 267 | 163 | 103 | 137 | 119 |
14 | ESPN FPI | 0.67164 | 0.53435 | 9.9403 | 1.55560 | 163.36100 | 269 | 180 | 88 | 140 | 122 |
15 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.67537 | 0.53307 | 9.9219 | 1.76590 | 165.78000 | 269 | 181 | 87 | 137 | 120 |
16 | ProComputerGambler | 0.67910 | 0.53053 | 9.9226 | 0.31340 | 165.43300 | 269 | 182 | 86 | 139 | 123 |
17 | Line (updated) | 0.66418 | 0.52980 | 9.8476 | 1.02600 | 162.47000 | 269 | 178 | 90 | 80 | 71 |
18 | Sportsformulator | 0.67063 | 0.52941 | 11.4190 | 2.04360 | 207.91800 | 253 | 169 | 83 | 126 | 112 |
19 | Least Squares | 0.64552 | 0.52896 | 10.2933 | 0.38180 | 175.83300 | 269 | 173 | 95 | 137 | 122 |
20 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.63806 | 0.52823 | 10.0891 | 1.84450 | 171.92000 | 269 | 171 | 97 | 131 | 117 |
21 | Covers.com | 0.66045 | 0.52800 | 10.0280 | 2.89800 | 169.06200 | 269 | 177 | 91 | 132 | 118 |
22 | System Median | 0.67910 | 0.52756 | 9.8491 | 1.76000 | 164.29900 | 269 | 182 | 86 | 134 | 120 |
23 | ThePowerRank.com | 0.67910 | 0.52734 | 9.9226 | 0.88930 | 164.69000 | 269 | 182 | 86 | 135 | 121 |
24 | Stephen Kerns | 0.67164 | 0.52692 | 10.3922 | 1.94830 | 178.04500 | 269 | 180 | 88 | 137 | 123 |
25 | Sagarin Rating | 0.66045 | 0.52672 | 9.9423 | 1.23480 | 165.46400 | 269 | 177 | 91 | 138 | 124 |
26 | Sagarin Points | 0.66045 | 0.52124 | 9.9879 | 1.23070 | 166.37000 | 269 | 177 | 91 | 135 | 124 |
27 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.61567 | 0.52107 | 10.3498 | 2.85090 | 177.45900 | 269 | 165 | 103 | 136 | 125 |
28 | Sagarin Recent | 0.65299 | 0.52107 | 10.1329 | 1.23910 | 169.68600 | 269 | 175 | 93 | 136 | 125 |
29 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.66418 | 0.51938 | 10.1846 | 0.36600 | 173.20100 | 269 | 178 | 90 | 134 | 124 |
30 | System Average | 0.67164 | 0.51908 | 9.9223 | 1.86660 | 165.64300 | 269 | 180 | 88 | 136 | 126 |
31 | Sonny Moore | 0.66791 | 0.51908 | 10.1256 | 2.01770 | 174.58500 | 269 | 179 | 89 | 136 | 126 |
32 | TuringFantasy | 0.63559 | 0.51802 | 11.6118 | 0.18570 | 214.16000 | 237 | 150 | 86 | 115 | 107 |
33 | Steven Jens 2 | 0.52720 | 0.51709 | 13.0218 | 7.42170 | 282.31800 | 240 | 126 | 113 | 121 | 113 |
34 | Lou St. John | 0.68284 | 0.51145 | 10.0375 | 0.14580 | 169.51500 | 269 | 183 | 85 | 134 | 128 |
35 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.66418 | 0.51145 | 10.4630 | 2.11010 | 180.01800 | 269 | 178 | 90 | 134 | 128 |
36 | Talisman Red | 0.64921 | 0.51075 | 10.8005 | 0.30970 | 190.87900 | 191 | 124 | 67 | 95 | 91 |
37 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.64419 | 0.50958 | 10.4742 | 2.31810 | 187.33900 | 268 | 172 | 95 | 133 | 128 |
38 | Massey Ratings | 0.66045 | 0.50958 | 10.0978 | 0.47870 | 168.33700 | 269 | 177 | 91 | 133 | 128 |
39 | Stat Fox | 0.62687 | 0.50593 | 10.6098 | 3.10850 | 186.33100 | 269 | 168 | 100 | 128 | 125 |
40 | Logistic Regression | 0.64552 | 0.50391 | 10.8131 | 0.41700 | 191.75200 | 269 | 173 | 95 | 129 | 127 |
41 | Beck Elo | 0.63433 | 0.50382 | 10.6065 | 3.39210 | 188.26200 | 269 | 170 | 98 | 132 | 130 |
42 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.64925 | 0.50000 | 10.1924 | 1.51770 | 172.91500 | 269 | 174 | 94 | 123 | 123 |
43 | Steven Jens | 0.62687 | 0.50000 | 10.7226 | 4.08660 | 190.10800 | 269 | 168 | 100 | 131 | 131 |
44 | Dan Hanson | 0.61864 | 0.49784 | 11.1570 | 0.17040 | 207.51400 | 237 | 146 | 90 | 115 | 116 |
45 | Dwiggins | 0.59746 | 0.49784 | 11.3141 | 4.44830 | 213.53600 | 237 | 141 | 95 | 115 | 116 |
46 | Odds Shark | 0.62128 | 0.49565 | 12.9347 | 7.18810 | 256.16700 | 236 | 146 | 89 | 114 | 116 |
47 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.68284 | 0.49421 | 10.1922 | 0.37660 | 170.30000 | 269 | 183 | 85 | 128 | 131 |
48 | Pigskin Index | 0.63433 | 0.49378 | 10.2269 | 3.11220 | 175.13500 | 269 | 170 | 98 | 119 | 122 |
49 | Game Time Decision | 0.63415 | 0.49107 | 10.2351 | 2.93200 | 173.18000 | 247 | 156 | 90 | 110 | 114 |
50 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.60075 | 0.48837 | 10.7565 | 2.48210 | 187.83900 | 269 | 161 | 107 | 126 | 132 |
51 | RP Excel 2 | 0.51724 | 0.48649 | 12.7768 | 0.67380 | 253.53000 | 233 | 120 | 112 | 108 | 114 |
52 | Kasulis ESP2 | 0.67910 | 0.48413 | 9.9844 | 0.74500 | 163.31200 | 269 | 182 | 86 | 122 | 130 |
53 | RP Excel | 0.65975 | 0.48052 | 10.7107 | 1.00000 | 193.00400 | 242 | 159 | 82 | 111 | 120 |
54 | FF-Winners | 0.62313 | 0.47347 | 10.5651 | 1.54650 | 178.33300 | 269 | 167 | 101 | 116 | 129 |
55 | John Coffey | 0.63021 | 0.47059 | 10.6805 | 2.54830 | 190.85000 | 192 | 121 | 71 | 88 | 99 |
56 | Bihl Rankings | 0.64815 | 0.46835 | 10.3730 | 1.30080 | 182.30100 | 162 | 105 | 57 | 74 | 84 |
57 | Roundtable | 0.62445 | 0.45909 | 11.3000 | 3.35240 | 214.05700 | 230 | 143 | 86 | 101 | 119 |
58 | Dunkel Index | 0.66667 | 0.45344 | 11.3730 | 3.06130 | 213.98200 | 253 | 168 | 84 | 112 | 135 |
59 | Line (Midweek) | 0.67164 | | 9.8401 | 1.12640 | 160.15700 | 269 | 180 | 88 | | |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses