ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-02-07

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Dokter Entropy	0.66418	0.55725	9.8389	2.02110	163.25300	269	178	90	146	116
2	Line (opening)	0.63806	0.55066	9.8755	1.80110	161.10000	269	171	97	125	102
3	Pi-Rate Mean	0.67537	0.55039	9.8959	1.77180	165.62400	269	181	87	142	116
4	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.65299	0.55000	9.9317	1.25220	164.33300	269	175	93	143	117
5	Donchess Inference	0.68651	0.54733	10.1625	1.42570	172.37900	253	173	79	133	110
6	Computer Adjusted Line	0.66791	0.54717	9.8216	1.12640	161.85400	269	179	89	87	72
7	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.61567	0.54406	10.3399	0.68010	174.97100	269	165	103	142	119
8	PerformanZ Ratings	0.66045	0.54198	10.0280	0.36990	166.98800	269	177	91	142	120
9	TeamRankings.com	0.64925	0.53906	9.8949	2.02650	166.34400	269	174	94	138	118
10	Pythagorean Ratings	0.63806	0.53817	10.3445	2.87090	176.54600	269	171	97	141	121
11	Points Per Game	0.66045	0.53817	10.4029	1.89460	180.70100	269	177	91	141	121
12	Pi-Rate Bias	0.67164	0.53543	9.9576	1.76730	167.04400	269	180	88	136	118
13	LS - w/ team HFA	0.61278	0.53516	11.4283	0.55780	210.27000	267	163	103	137	119
14	ESPN FPI	0.67164	0.53435	9.9403	1.55560	163.36100	269	180	88	140	122
15	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.67537	0.53307	9.9219	1.76590	165.78000	269	181	87	137	120
16	ProComputerGambler	0.67910	0.53053	9.9226	0.31340	165.43300	269	182	86	139	123
17	Line (updated)	0.66418	0.52980	9.8476	1.02600	162.47000	269	178	90	80	71
18	Sportsformulator	0.67063	0.52941	11.4190	2.04360	207.91800	253	169	83	126	112
19	Least Squares	0.64552	0.52896	10.2933	0.38180	175.83300	269	173	95	137	122
20	Ashby AccuRatings	0.63806	0.52823	10.0891	1.84450	171.92000	269	171	97	131	117
21	Covers.com	0.66045	0.52800	10.0280	2.89800	169.06200	269	177	91	132	118
22	System Median	0.67910	0.52756	9.8491	1.76000	164.29900	269	182	86	134	120
23	ThePowerRank.com	0.67910	0.52734	9.9226	0.88930	164.69000	269	182	86	135	121
24	Stephen Kerns	0.67164	0.52692	10.3922	1.94830	178.04500	269	180	88	137	123
25	Sagarin Rating	0.66045	0.52672	9.9423	1.23480	165.46400	269	177	91	138	124
26	Sagarin Points	0.66045	0.52124	9.9879	1.23070	166.37000	269	177	91	135	124
27	Scoring Effeciency	0.61567	0.52107	10.3498	2.85090	177.45900	269	165	103	136	125
28	Sagarin Recent	0.65299	0.52107	10.1329	1.23910	169.68600	269	175	93	136	125
29	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.66418	0.51938	10.1846	0.36600	173.20100	269	178	90	134	124
30	System Average	0.67164	0.51908	9.9223	1.86660	165.64300	269	180	88	136	126
31	Sonny Moore	0.66791	0.51908	10.1256	2.01770	174.58500	269	179	89	136	126
32	TuringFantasy	0.63559	0.51802	11.6118	0.18570	214.16000	237	150	86	115	107
33	Steven Jens 2	0.52720	0.51709	13.0218	7.42170	282.31800	240	126	113	121	113
34	Lou St. John	0.68284	0.51145	10.0375	0.14580	169.51500	269	183	85	134	128
35	Daniel Curry Index	0.66418	0.51145	10.4630	2.11010	180.01800	269	178	90	134	128
36	Talisman Red	0.64921	0.51075	10.8005	0.30970	190.87900	191	124	67	95	91
37	Versus Sports Simulator	0.64419	0.50958	10.4742	2.31810	187.33900	268	172	95	133	128
38	Massey Ratings	0.66045	0.50958	10.0978	0.47870	168.33700	269	177	91	133	128
39	Stat Fox	0.62687	0.50593	10.6098	3.10850	186.33100	269	168	100	128	125
40	Logistic Regression	0.64552	0.50391	10.8131	0.41700	191.75200	269	173	95	129	127
41	Beck Elo	0.63433	0.50382	10.6065	3.39210	188.26200	269	170	98	132	130
42	ARGH Power Ratings	0.64925	0.50000	10.1924	1.51770	172.91500	269	174	94	123	123
43	Steven Jens	0.62687	0.50000	10.7226	4.08660	190.10800	269	168	100	131	131
44	Dan Hanson	0.61864	0.49784	11.1570	0.17040	207.51400	237	146	90	115	116
45	Dwiggins	0.59746	0.49784	11.3141	4.44830	213.53600	237	141	95	115	116
46	Odds Shark	0.62128	0.49565	12.9347	7.18810	256.16700	236	146	89	114	116
47	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.68284	0.49421	10.1922	0.37660	170.30000	269	183	85	128	131
48	Pigskin Index	0.63433	0.49378	10.2269	3.11220	175.13500	269	170	98	119	122
49	Game Time Decision	0.63415	0.49107	10.2351	2.93200	173.18000	247	156	90	110	114
50	Cleanup Hitter	0.60075	0.48837	10.7565	2.48210	187.83900	269	161	107	126	132
51	RP Excel 2	0.51724	0.48649	12.7768	0.67380	253.53000	233	120	112	108	114
52	Kasulis ESP2	0.67910	0.48413	9.9844	0.74500	163.31200	269	182	86	122	130
53	RP Excel	0.65975	0.48052	10.7107	1.00000	193.00400	242	159	82	111	120
54	FF-Winners	0.62313	0.47347	10.5651	1.54650	178.33300	269	167	101	116	129
55	John Coffey	0.63021	0.47059	10.6805	2.54830	190.85000	192	121	71	88	99
56	Bihl Rankings	0.64815	0.46835	10.3730	1.30080	182.30100	162	105	57	74	84
57	Roundtable	0.62445	0.45909	11.3000	3.35240	214.05700	230	143	86	101	119
58	Dunkel Index	0.66667	0.45344	11.3730	3.06130	213.98200	253	168	84	112	135
59	Line (Midweek)	0.67164		9.8401	1.12640	160.15700	269	180	88

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses