ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-02-05

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Line (updated)	0.67790	0.60000	10.1124	-0.51690	173.55700	267	181	86	99	66
2	PerformanZ Ratings	0.64419	0.57529	10.7469	-0.19240	188.17200	267	172	95	149	110
3	ARGH Power Ratings	0.64906	0.57317	10.4849	-0.28300	183.26700	265	172	93	141	105
4	ThePowerRank.com	0.64794	0.57087	10.4738	0.12340	186.58000	267	173	94	145	109
5	YourLinx	0.65873	0.56967	10.5450	0.20880	187.49000	252	166	86	139	105
6	Computer Adjusted Line	0.67416	0.56742	10.1629	-0.46250	174.99500	267	180	87	101	77
7	John Coffey	0.68421	0.56593	10.2760	0.10050	172.76500	190	130	60	103	79
8	Donchess Inference	0.68539	0.55598	10.3114	0.24450	181.90600	267	183	84	144	115
9	Laffaye RWP	0.65401	0.55217	11.1792	0.38220	212.18900	237	155	82	127	103
10	Turner Rateform	0.62698	0.55144	10.9758	0.66230	206.21000	252	158	94	134	109
11	System Median	0.65543	0.54724	10.4155	-0.01190	183.72000	267	175	92	139	115
12	Roger Johnson	0.66364	0.54717	10.4587	-0.95260	183.11500	220	146	74	116	96
13	Game Time Decision	0.66667	0.54497	10.1760	0.33150	177.31300	213	142	71	103	86
14	Massey Ratings	0.66667	0.54440	10.5366	-0.35090	187.23300	267	178	89	141	118
15	System Average	0.65543	0.54264	10.4162	-0.06440	184.47100	267	175	92	140	118
16	Sagarin Points	0.65543	0.54054	10.4558	-0.03290	185.54200	267	175	92	140	119
17	Roundtable	0.66810	0.53953	11.5344	0.27610	220.42600	232	155	77	116	99
18	Sagarin Recent	0.65169	0.53906	10.6122	-0.16930	186.29700	267	174	93	138	118
19	Bihl Rankings	0.71023	0.53571	10.2747	0.49540	178.06400	176	125	51	90	78
20	Pi-Rate Bias	0.64794	0.53516	10.6404	0.49070	192.15000	267	173	94	137	119
21	Lou St. John	0.68165	0.53488	10.3869	-0.74580	184.21500	267	182	85	138	120
22	Sonny Moore	0.67041	0.53282	10.9010	0.43820	200.29300	267	179	88	138	121
23	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.64794	0.52964	10.6206	0.46710	192.58500	267	173	94	134	119
24	FF-Winners	0.65169	0.52917	10.7828	-0.16850	198.82800	267	174	93	127	113
25	Line (opening)	0.65918	0.52913	10.2453	-0.38010	176.41600	267	176	91	109	97
26	Pythagorean Ratings	0.64045	0.52896	10.9506	0.15240	206.63100	267	171	96	137	122
27	TheSportsCruncher	0.66412	0.52823	10.5767	-0.36830	181.12500	262	174	88	131	117
28	TeamRankings.com	0.67790	0.52756	10.4723	0.57790	188.67000	267	181	86	134	120
29	Dunkel Index	0.65543	0.52713	11.6667	1.05390	221.40800	267	175	92	136	122
30	Least Squares	0.64419	0.52529	11.0307	-1.47240	203.73500	267	172	95	135	122
31	ComPughter Ratings	0.67416	0.52510	11.1166	-0.31590	207.86000	267	180	87	136	123
32	Stephen Kerns	0.66667	0.52124	11.0109	-0.75460	202.88900	267	178	89	135	124
33	NutShell Sports	0.63296	0.51969	12.3032	0.16700	250.71600	267	169	98	132	122
34	Kalin Ratings	0.64259	0.51765	10.5713	-0.12040	187.86800	263	169	94	132	123
35	Logistic Regression	0.63670	0.51550	11.2099	-0.84730	210.57300	267	170	97	133	125
36	Pigskin Index	0.63670	0.51477	10.5433	0.66350	188.51400	267	170	97	122	115
37	Sagarin Rating	0.67416	0.51351	10.4090	-0.07180	185.09500	267	180	87	133	126
38	Covers.com	0.65169	0.51250	10.6123	0.34670	190.26400	267	174	93	123	117
39	Pi-Rate Mean	0.65918	0.51163	10.6250	0.47240	193.48400	267	176	91	132	126
40	Stat Fox	0.65918	0.51012	10.8278	0.57370	201.90900	267	176	91	126	121
41	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.64045	0.50980	10.6341	-0.47080	190.05500	267	171	96	130	125
42	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.67041	0.50965	10.6027	-0.09330	191.97600	267	179	88	132	127
43	Kasulis ESP2	0.65918	0.50813	10.4285	-0.40070	182.76300	267	176	91	125	121
44	Cleanup Hitter	0.59551	0.50602	11.1237	-0.10060	204.75900	267	159	108	126	123
45	Beck Elo	0.61798	0.50579	10.9872	-0.08540	200.15400	267	165	102	131	128
46	ESPN FPI	0.67416	0.50579	10.5721	1.20760	190.22000	267	180	87	131	128
47	Lee Burdorf	0.64151	0.50391	11.5223	0.58420	221.15800	265	170	95	129	127
48	Dwiggins	0.65169	0.50388	11.1859	0.40010	215.17500	267	174	93	130	128
49	Scoring Effeciency	0.62172	0.50388	10.8275	0.24070	198.28600	267	166	101	130	128
50	ProComputerGambler	0.66667	0.50193	10.3354	-1.53520	179.36000	267	178	89	130	129
51	Ashby AccuRatings	0.64419	0.50000	10.6406	-0.40740	188.13100	267	172	95	123	123
52	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.65169	0.50000	11.0950	-1.15730	203.57900	267	174	93	127	127
53	RP Excel 2	0.66160	0.50000	11.3840	-0.26620	212.08300	263	174	89	125	125
54	Points Per Game	0.61049	0.49805	11.5845	-0.81520	222.12100	267	163	104	128	129
55	What If Sports	0.63296	0.49020	10.9880	-2.17600	197.56500	267	169	98	125	130
56	Daniel Curry Index	0.66932	0.48971	11.6259	0.43200	219.89900	251	168	83	119	124
57	IronRank.com	0.62745	0.48790	11.1099	0.11620	207.15500	255	160	95	121	127
58	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.62172	0.48263	11.2966	-1.42930	207.52600	267	166	101	125	134
59	Dan Hanson	0.60593	0.48246	11.1208	-0.75360	202.73300	236	143	93	110	118
60	Dokter Entropy	0.65918	0.47876	10.5888	-0.63190	185.86200	267	176	91	124	135
61	RP Excel	0.63878	0.47755	12.0646	-0.90110	244.19800	263	168	95	117	128
62	LS - w/ team HFA	0.61423	0.47638	11.6521	-1.14440	230.81500	267	164	103	121	133
63	Steven Jens	0.63529	0.47154	11.3266	1.61140	211.03100	255	162	93	116	130
64	Talisman Red	0.66292	0.47104	11.1300	-0.81340	203.41600	267	177	90	122	137
65	Line (Midweek)	0.66292		10.2659	-0.37830	177.41300	267	177	90

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses