Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2015 Season Totals

Through 2016-02-08
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Logistic Regression0.647940.5960810.1595-0.55750171.3670026717394152103
2Computer Adjusted Line0.629210.5872110.16290.60710167.516002671689910171
3Dokter Entropy0.655430.5814010.18190.62210167.2100026717592150108
4RP Excel0.606740.5813011.00370.65410197.40400267162105143103
5Line (updated)0.629210.5759510.14040.56200167.51300267168999167
6Kalin Ratings0.636700.5637110.29300.72170170.9690026717097146113
7IronRank.com0.640450.5598510.27461.00920171.6000026717196145114
8Sagarin Golden Mean0.659180.5598510.23280.56820168.0970026717691145114
9Pi-Rate Bias0.644190.5568610.69971.08580180.9720026717295142113
10ARGH Power Ratings0.647940.5546210.47940.82890172.5340026717394132106
11Sagarin Points0.636700.5521210.30060.54820170.0300026717097143116
12Sagarin Recent0.651690.5521210.28550.60190168.6180026717493143116
13ProComputerGambler0.593410.5505611.36670.91560220.770009154374940
14Sagarin Rating0.636700.5482610.27630.57910169.4030026717097142117
15John Coffey0.656860.5482210.39951.10330174.922002041347010889
16MDS Model0.652000.5454510.29661.21010173.4920025016387132110
17Least Abs. Val Reg0.573030.5433111.0527-0.16600194.71200267153114138116
18Ashby AccuRatings0.651690.5432110.28470.30520171.4840026717493132111
19Laffaye RWP0.625500.5432110.5067-0.50560178.3140025115794132111
20Nutshell Middle Game0.647940.5406510.54681.17510179.2700026717394133113
21ESPN FPI0.632960.5405410.35271.06610173.1330026716998140119
22System Median0.636700.5393710.30350.65160169.5540026717097137117
23Cleanup Hitter0.565540.5387810.71720.96270193.34100267151116132113
24Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.610490.5387610.42070.15300173.86200267163104139119
25Turner Rateform0.632350.5380710.52581.46340179.694002041297510691
26Kasulis ESP20.640450.5378510.22360.29700170.2270026717196135116
27Pi-Rate Mean0.629210.5369610.52631.09410174.9060026716899138119
28NutShell Sports0.621720.5369610.58090.94750176.56900267166101138119
29ThePowerRank.com0.651690.5366810.38690.92490177.0750026717493139120
30Line (opening)0.614230.5360810.17790.68980169.1140026716410310490
31Roger Johnson0.611870.5355510.5795-0.24550178.111002191348511398
32Dan Hanson0.570210.5354010.77760.28580197.29100235134101121105
33Pigskin Index0.625470.5341910.50191.39910176.88600267167100125109
34YourLinx0.659180.5330710.48311.01580178.0780026717691137120
35Sonny Moore0.599250.5328210.70940.66370178.22200267160107138121
36What If Sports0.599250.5291810.5524-1.80750181.05100267160107136121
37Points Per Game0.569290.5289610.74040.10300190.18400267152115137122
38Donchess Inference0.647940.5251010.43801.32030173.1700026717394136123
39Daniel Curry Index0.655430.5251010.90901.10830189.8340026717592136123
40Pi-Rate Ratings0.647940.5215710.56971.04850178.3340026717394133122
41CPA Retro Rankings0.599250.5212410.9768-0.05190186.15700267160107135124
42Talisman Red0.632960.5212410.46120.10530175.0670026716998135124
43DirectorOfInformation.c0.599250.5212410.46380.75060179.32300267160107135124
44Stat Fox0.629210.5204910.87641.29350180.9530026716899127117
45PointShare0.634700.5192310.49960.19880175.9240021913980108100
46LS - w/ team HFA0.584270.5155011.3965-0.70060207.59900267156111133125
47System Average0.640450.5137310.33030.63840169.5460026717196131124
48CPA Rankings0.580520.5135111.1260-0.23110188.49400267155112133126
49Pythagorean Ratings0.621720.5135110.58931.14230184.41400267166101133126
50Covers.com0.621720.5105510.31391.17600171.50200267166101121116
51Steven Jens0.644190.5057910.93302.09330185.3450026717295131128
52Kambour Rating0.644190.5019310.59750.82140180.6810026717295130129
53Least Squares0.606740.5019310.8660-0.65420185.61000267162105130129
54Beck Elo0.614230.5019310.88950.65620182.98000267164103130129
55Scoring Effeciency0.617980.5000010.51041.13480181.56700267165102129129
56Turnover Adj. regressio0.588010.4980710.78170.04500186.85800267157110129130
57Massey Ratings0.636700.4939810.4636-0.02530171.1960026717097123126
58ComPughter Ratings0.624060.4922510.96220.32620186.79400266166100127131
59Roundtable0.622320.4907411.28741.10760198.6620023314588106110
60Dwiggins0.621720.4902711.40211.31330197.03300267166101126131
61Stephen Kerns0.641300.4886411.00530.20120179.884009259334345
62Game Time Decision0.633740.4883710.19761.35750169.7370024315489105110
63Dunkel Index0.629210.4864910.90940.39650190.1300026716899126133
64FF-Winners0.606740.4831910.90261.35340186.15100267162105115123
65PerformanZ Ratings0.617980.4806210.69190.38050180.80100267165102124134
66Lou St. John0.640450.4787610.42820.01000172.7100026717196124135
67Odds Shark0.574470.4772710.95381.76060180.344004727202123
68Lee Burdorf0.629210.4728711.42211.36060201.3030026716899122136
69Sportrends0.596150.4658110.88651.60220183.46100260155105109125
70Foreshadow Sports0.600900.4575511.00450.39460188.636002231348997115
71Bihl Rankings0.546880.4531311.66053.75270204.083006435292935
72Line (Midweek)0.5992510.31270.56950172.02600267160107
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses