Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Computer Adjusted Line0.681650.5952410.6966-0.39700178.31200267182855034
2Sagarin Predictive0.651690.5852710.7894-0.11970183.6860026717493151107
3Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
4Sagarin0.666670.5697710.7854-0.11250183.9790026717889147111
5Jeff Imes0.659180.5675711.37510.96980203.3480026717691147112
6Bihl Rankings0.690320.5657910.69990.44190176.43200155107488666
7System Average0.651690.5637110.7819-0.43180180.9940026717493146113
8System Median0.655430.5607810.8281-0.36570182.4750026717592143112
9Roger Johnson0.684930.5601910.9551-0.97370190.987002191506912195
10Ed Bemiss0.680000.5578910.6620-0.74490182.358002001366410684
11JFM Power Ratings0.636700.5559811.01380.05710186.9980026717097144115
12Dwiggins0.684620.5542211.20380.30930197.2210026017882138111
13Game Time Decision0.641670.5486711.0752-0.45800182.1850012077436251
14Sports Report Elo0.656250.5483911.9478-1.61560227.0230025616888136112
15Beck Elo0.670410.5482611.0452-0.67370188.8730026717988142117
16Mike Greenfield0.697560.5445510.9020-1.44340185.961002051436211092
17Eric Hollobaugh0.707320.5445511.0438-0.10860194.177002051456011092
18Sagarin Elo0.659180.5444011.0281-0.11830191.4130026717691141118
19Lee Burdorf0.674160.5426411.60480.20040211.5370026718087140118
20Brian Gabrielle0.656490.5423710.89120.26950184.8350026217290128108
21Kambour Rating0.651690.5405410.8506-0.50390183.4020026717493140119
22Pigskin Index0.636700.5400811.00770.28150188.5160026717097128109
23Dunkel Index0.603000.5387611.34520.26120194.29300267161106139119
24Steven Jens0.662920.5375511.0963-1.06020189.9930026717790136117
25ARGH Power Ratings0.685260.5357111.0219-0.76290190.0730025117279120104
26PerformanZ Ratings0.654140.5348811.2020-1.39970193.5690026617492138120
27LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.5348812.2272-1.47210243.73700267164103138120
28Jeff Self0.635000.5329911.3050-0.46960206.470002001277310592
29Logistic Regression0.671230.5324111.7291-2.47790228.2060021914772115101
30TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
31CPA Rankings0.666670.5251010.9995-0.02460187.9480026717889136123
32The Sports Report0.656250.5241912.3973-1.57610236.4940025616888130118
33Least Squares0.655430.5232611.7110-1.52690209.2330026717592135123
34Least Abs. Val Reg0.610490.5215712.2046-1.65480227.98500267163104133122
35Pigskin Herald0.672930.5177911.3695-0.60640199.5790026617987131122
36Pythagorean Ratings0.670410.5173711.4344-1.36430206.8420026717988134125
37Deslock Rankings0.665180.5162811.9157-0.94660215.8560022414975111104
38Sonny Moore0.689140.5135111.1158-0.92680193.5100026718483133126
39NutShell Sports0.640450.5135111.12580.04860192.4550026717196133126
40Stephen Kerns0.632960.5096511.9218-0.60780225.1640026716998132127
41Sourjax0.657530.5094311.18040.57140196.6430021914475108104
42Michael Robert Ratings0.642550.5087011.11920.16680193.4300023515184117113
43John Coffey0.673170.5049510.8166-0.32300187.6110020513867102100
44Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.647940.5039111.0881-0.89690190.9630026717394129127
45Stat Fox0.640450.5020611.21740.35630192.7490026717196122121
46NutShell Retro0.645420.5020411.1854-0.76410194.7500025116289123122
47CPA Retro Rankings0.670410.5019310.9536-0.02750191.8530026717988130129
48Scoring Effeciency0.635340.5000011.3108-0.23240199.1390026616997129129
49Sport Trends0.659180.5000011.6221-1.38010213.0070026717691129129
50Hank Trexler0.666670.5000010.8652-0.67790185.2230026717889125125
51Line (opening)0.674160.4918910.8727-0.21720182.16100267180879194
52Ashby AccuRatings0.625470.4917411.00400.37540186.05100267167100119123
53Reistertown Index0.662920.4916711.3071-0.88760194.3230026717790118122
54TSR Slots0.589840.4898814.7684-2.00540363.18000256151105121126
55Upset Report0.657370.4895411.4382-2.43920208.4230025116586117122
56Viacheslav0.638890.4890511.01490.57120187.5510014492526770
57What If Sports0.636720.4879011.97080.31970221.6880025616393121127
58Tom Benson0.599250.4845011.6842-0.35010204.29300267160107125133
59Sports Report Pred0.609380.4817814.7464-2.14390369.30500256156100119128
60Dokter Entropy0.617980.4787611.07820.20620191.38700267165102124135
61Grid Iron Gold0.600810.4786312.0141-1.52170227.7820024814999112122
62Covers.com0.561800.4710411.9046-0.85640224.51700267150117122137
63Line (updated)0.6853910.7135-0.39140178.8580026718384
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses