Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

Through 2022-02-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.3333311.84620.00000245.400001348
2Bihl Rankings0.1666712.38690.15700261.2830013210
3Ashby AccuRatings0.5000011.69230.20000255.996001366
4Massey Ratings0.4166711.28620.46900234.533001357
5System Median0.3333311.2050-0.58570233.703001348
6RP Excel0.5000013.6667-0.70000329.251001255
7Versus Sports Simulator0.2500012.13920.72700243.813001339
8Sagarin0.2500011.7631-0.85400267.110001339
9Stephen Kerns0.4166711.84621.00000208.700001357
10System Average0.5833310.9436-1.23030236.649001375
11RP Excel 20.4000015.7273-1.33330466.691001146
12Line (Midweek)11.0769-1.40000224.1040013
13Line (opening)0.6250010.9231-1.45000217.015001353
14Line (updated)0.6666711.0385-1.50000225.725001321
15Roundtable0.750009.5000-1.50000118.12500631
16John Coffey0.7500011.1723-1.55000241.330001393
17Pi-Rate Ratings0.3333312.61542.10000258.459001348
18FF-Winners0.6000010.6923-2.40000219.824001364
19Daniel Curry Index0.6666710.4946-2.42100244.248001384
20Donchess Inference0.5833311.1148-2.56270233.816001375
21Talisman Red0.6666711.2846-3.28000280.176001384
22Laffaye RWP0.4545510.95173.69110206.024001256
23Odds Shark0.727279.7769-3.96000228.114001383
24TuringFantasy.com0.5833312.1538-4.00000209.000001375
25Cleanup Hitter0.7272710.2692-4.60000181.684001383
26Dan Hanson0.7500011.8808-7.15500271.518001393
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses