Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1CPA Retro Rankings0.642340.4411811.6105-0.04230210.5720013788496076
2CPA Rankings0.620440.5367611.4471-0.07980211.2040013785527363
3LS - w/ team HFA0.569340.4360912.6504-0.09380242.8650013778595875
4Least Squares0.620440.5441211.6472-0.10280216.5020013785527462
5Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4926511.4537-0.16180205.4020013788496769
6Roger Johnson0.605840.5303011.2912-0.19050204.6220013783547062
7Least Abs. Val Reg0.642340.4191212.1285-0.19340228.8880013788495779
8ARGH Power Ratings0.666670.5229411.31460.20210200.5650012080405752
9Logistic Regression0.554740.4962411.64740.32510204.8130013776616667
10Hank Trexler0.642340.5038811.19710.35040200.3930013788496564
11Wunderdog Sports0.642340.5126110.99270.40880193.4150013788496158
12Cover810.686960.5045011.04780.43570193.0530011579365655
13PerformanZ Ratings0.598540.5185211.55230.47720208.6730013782557065
14NFL Pickles0.656930.5746311.2759-0.49930200.7680013790477757
15Stephen Kerns0.627740.5522411.33430.49930202.2360013786517460
16Strengthranking.com0.613140.5882411.11540.51850198.5540013784538056
17Reistertown Index0.635040.4885511.81750.53280215.2610013787506467
18Dunkel Index0.598540.4485311.63420.53880212.0110013782556175
19Pat Laffaye0.627740.5447811.36280.56720210.8370013786517361
20Upset Report0.649640.5581411.71530.63500217.9610013789487257
21PickingPros.com0.649640.5588211.34730.69910209.9970013789487660
22Michael Robert Ratings0.671530.4926511.14610.75330205.3470013792456769
23What If Sports0.605840.4545512.2175-0.80440225.2950013783546072
24Beck Elo0.591240.5073511.39340.88800205.7280013781566967
25Sonny Moore0.613140.4632411.38680.91180205.5130013784536373
26Atomic Football0.626870.5112811.36810.91760205.1440013484506865
27Massey Ratings0.642340.5629610.78240.94010189.6480013788497659
28Austin Sports0.644630.6166710.98920.95350199.9510012178437446
29RP Excel0.569340.4592612.82481.00000264.2340013778596273
30Kambour Rating0.620440.5955911.21571.04010203.5180013785528155
31System Average0.664230.5220611.02441.04090194.4160013791467165
32Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5955910.81571.05120192.6920013788498155
33Line (opening)0.698530.5531910.99261.05150195.0650013695415242
34Sagarin Elo0.656930.5147111.15091.10260192.7710013790477066
35Sagarin0.649640.5514710.79451.11790188.7820013789487561
36System Median0.649640.5367611.04911.12760195.0170013789487363
37Computer Adjusted Line0.671530.5555611.10221.13140197.8850013792452016
38Line (updated)0.6788311.12411.14600198.979001379344
39Eric Hollobaugh0.626170.6261710.43681.23500183.2580010767406740
40Dwiggins0.640350.5089311.89481.27730230.0190011473415755
41Nationalsportsrankings0.595240.4480011.63271.38600214.2610012675515669
42YourLinx0.627740.4485311.82911.39090213.9980013786516175
43Nutshell Combo0.627740.4264711.55371.40820204.9970013786515878
44John Coffey0.642340.5514710.95991.41810193.3690013788497561
45Lee Burdorf0.591240.4887212.04601.43870236.2920013781566568
46NutShell Sports0.583940.4222212.14261.44050227.1720013780575778
47Pythagorean Ratings0.598540.5294111.21241.46410205.3630013782557264
48Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.44621.48400211.9890013786516868
49Ashby AccuRatings0.642340.5426411.19011.51180202.1680013788497059
50Nutshell Girl0.656930.4852911.28421.51510199.6170013790476670
51JFM Power Ratings0.649640.4264711.29241.52580199.5720013789485878
52Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.649640.5367611.18251.62500199.3950013789487363
53David and Pasteur0.635040.4926511.40961.67200208.8440013787506769
54Pigskin Index0.620440.4651211.34311.67980202.8880013785526069
55Covers.com0.642340.5447811.08501.69400198.2400013788497361
56Brent Craig0.572730.4761911.52761.70950213.3490011063475055
57Dokter Entropy0.664230.5037011.07271.71170197.2380013791466867
58Sportrends0.605840.5581411.36501.71600209.5090013783547257
59Stat Fox0.642340.4341110.98551.74470193.4900013788495673
60Jim Armstrong0.627740.5000011.50871.79950207.6070013786516767
61Game Time Decision0.678830.4961811.03271.83620192.9410013793446566
62Steven Jens0.602940.5000011.45741.90440204.1610013682546666
63Yarnell0.656930.5481511.68382.19740212.0590013790477461
64Bihl Rankings0.642280.5691110.88802.23170191.6720012379447053
65Brian Gabrielle0.612900.4915312.10483.37900226.360006238242930
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses