Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Pigskin Index0.642340.5454511.11690.00770186.0060013788496655
2Michael Robert Ratings0.656930.5147111.16260.04390191.4850013790477066
3Jeff Imes0.649640.5147111.5583-0.06390204.9610013789487066
4Brian Gabrielle0.651520.4758111.3411-0.10560191.0640013286465965
5Dunkel Index0.598540.4963011.7773-0.13230203.9760013782556768
6Eric Hollobaugh0.678830.5073511.4691-0.13480198.5390013793446967
7Game Time Decision0.632080.5252511.02850.15110178.5850010667395247
8NutShell Sports0.627740.4926511.3371-0.15140193.0050013786516769
9Ashby AccuRatings0.649640.4761911.26280.15360188.3850013789486066
10JFM Power Ratings0.642340.5514711.1091-0.19400184.3940013788497561
11Stat Fox0.656930.5360011.44520.20470194.6570013790476758
12Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.2750-0.21070193.9470013786516868
13Bihl Rankings0.663370.5000011.29790.26430186.4740010167345050
14Lee Burdorf0.642340.5037012.2212-0.28250227.3510013788496867
15What If Sports0.650790.4720011.8233-0.30060204.5560012682445966
16Jeff Self0.634780.4912311.2537-0.31040193.1860011573425658
17Tom Benson0.613140.4264712.15970.33110212.9830013784535878
18Dokter Entropy0.627740.4558811.2387-0.37680193.7140013786516274
19Sourjax0.649640.5037011.10720.38420191.9750013789486867
20CPA Rankings0.656930.5220611.10010.41070186.8820013790477165
21Deslock Rankings0.670210.4623711.8131-0.41180209.475009463314350
22TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
23Dwiggins0.676920.4728711.7077-0.42920207.7920013088426168
24CPA Retro Rankings0.678830.4926511.07070.44640191.5360013793446769
25John Coffey0.642340.5000011.2587-0.53200190.8990013788496868
26Line (opening)0.686130.4693910.9745-0.60220179.4590013794434652
27System Median0.642340.5037011.1185-0.64190185.0070013788496867
28System Average0.642340.5367611.0929-0.67950183.1260013788497363
29Computer Adjusted Line0.700730.4651210.8796-0.71900178.4690013796412023
30Line (updated)0.7007310.8358-0.73360177.841001379641
31Steven Jens0.627740.5075811.1037-0.77660185.4660013786516765
32Kambour Rating0.671530.5147111.0061-0.81280185.2150013792457066
33Ed Bemiss0.676920.5238111.0984-0.87220190.4980013088426660
34Hank Trexler0.649640.4961211.0365-0.89050184.2720013789486465
35NutShell Retro0.664230.5220611.1920-0.90940188.7690013791467165
36Stephen Kerns0.635040.4705912.3832-0.91750234.4810013787506472
37Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
38Reistertown Index0.664230.4803111.5255-0.95620200.0590013791466166
39Sagarin Elo0.649640.4485311.5644-0.99200200.8200013789486175
40Sagarin0.664230.5185211.2663-1.02310192.0710013791467065
41Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5333311.3155-1.02920194.3700013788497263
42Beck Elo0.656930.4485311.3983-1.04360194.8090013790476175
43Pythagorean Ratings0.671530.5147111.2247-1.06580193.5890013792457066
44Covers.com0.496350.4338212.6215-1.09440245.7480013768695977
45Sonny Moore0.671530.4926511.4588-1.20660196.7170013792456769
46Pigskin Herald0.654410.4850711.7956-1.24410201.4080013689476569
47ARGH Power Ratings0.644630.4910711.5702-1.25620197.2210012178435557
48Sports Report Elo0.682540.4960012.2609-1.30500227.0320012686406263
49Roger Johnson0.649640.5441211.1088-1.33210186.6690013789487462
50Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4586511.4912-1.43580195.7620013788496172
51PerformanZ Ratings0.664230.5147111.3406-1.48230196.0850013791467066
52TSR Slots0.650790.5040012.1663-1.49720237.1480012682446362
53Grid Iron Gold0.627120.4955812.0676-1.49980225.6040011874445657
54Sports Report Pred0.690480.5120011.9143-1.52570235.4930012687396461
55Least Squares0.649640.5073511.4682-1.53200194.5590013789486967
56The Sports Report0.666670.4960011.7728-1.56130208.5240012684426263
57LS - w/ team HFA0.635040.5661811.1518-1.71530209.4400013787507759
58Mike Greenfield0.649640.5147111.2591-1.85910191.9060013789487066
59Least Abs. Val Reg0.627740.5188011.7536-1.92310209.0140013786516964
60Upset Report0.669420.4957311.2612-2.00660202.8740012181405859
61Logistic Regression0.649640.5220611.4815-2.45570204.8290013789487165
62Sport Trends0.664230.5000011.5919-2.64150211.8050013791466868
63Viacheslav0.428570.2142913.52295.17860227.371001468311
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses