Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2023-02-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Kasulis ESP20.560000.453249.1570-0.01250136.7910015184666376
2Sonny Moore0.631210.454559.3860-0.03330145.21000284178104125150
3Sagarin Points0.677300.480009.1664-0.03650144.9260028419191132143
4Ashby AccuRatings0.609930.490499.2290-0.05200141.35300284172110129134
5Sagarin Golden Mean0.634750.480009.3357-0.06260148.65600284179103132143
6Sagarin Rating0.663120.483649.0875-0.07410143.8990028418795133142
7John Coffey0.669950.510109.20090.08390142.171002041366710197
8Stephen Kerns0.578010.4468910.0097-0.09660161.93400284163119122151
9ESPN FPI0.631210.501829.3030-0.10290145.28300284178104138137
10Versus Sports Simulator0.627660.447279.95090.12240158.03100284177105123152
11Dokter Entropy0.627660.478109.19030.13150140.77800284177105131143
12System Median0.627660.470159.07330.15520139.04900284177105126142
13System Average0.627660.487279.11870.16640139.30100284177105134141
14Points Per Game0.606380.474459.7438-0.22120155.94900284171111130144
15Daniel Curry Index0.627660.440009.72290.23770155.43300284177105121154
16Sagarin Recent0.652480.480009.0494-0.23910143.2780028418498132143
17FF-Winners0.680850.548678.7570-0.24300133.5240028419290124102
18Lou St. John0.638300.436369.2202-0.26830140.53400284180102120155
19Computer Adjusted Line0.652480.529078.7782-0.30990131.29000284184989181
20Brent Craig0.586420.448729.56250.31670150.7450016395677086
21Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.553330.464799.52520.33580148.4800015183676676
22TeamRankings.com0.645390.476199.1469-0.34470141.34500284182100130143
23Donchess Inference0.648940.514819.11730.36440141.0140028418399139131
24Line (opening)0.624110.474658.9947-0.37150134.93300284176106103114
25Least Squares0.631210.468869.6242-0.39130155.79400284178104128145
26RP Excel 20.609320.4794010.1317-0.39500162.62900281170109128139
27Line (updated)0.652480.582788.7254-0.41900130.37800284184988863
28Talisman Red0.613480.485409.52810.47660147.59400284173109133141
29Line (Midweek)0.638308.8169-0.53520132.43700284180102
30Least Abs. Val Reg0.606380.507359.8206-0.55910164.99500284171111138134
31LS - w/ team HFA0.606380.4908410.3664-0.63170177.59700284171111134139
32Massey Ratings0.627660.472739.2178-0.65670141.53700284177105130145
33Roger Johnson0.621280.5066110.1212-0.67770178.9800023614689115112
34Cleanup Hitter0.617020.558499.05640.68010139.89000284174108148117
35Pi-Rate Mean0.627660.446899.51590.69050148.23700284177105122151
36Pi-Rate Bias0.613480.443229.60070.69580149.87500284173109121152
37Pi-Rate Ratings0.620570.450189.68840.72780153.12900284175107122149
38Dan Hanson0.608510.511019.59000.75180156.5120023614392116111
39Turnover Adj. regressio0.634750.487189.4473-0.75280150.08200284179103133140
40Laffaye RWP0.613640.4747110.37670.76630176.03000266162102122135
41Scoring Effeciency0.645390.490919.11240.77850141.63700284182100135140
42PerformanZ Ratings0.620570.465459.5989-0.78360150.05800284175107128147
43RP Excel0.566310.4560010.1103-0.80070169.38900281158121114136
44Pythagorean Ratings0.634750.450919.50480.88520149.03900284179103124151
45Roundtable0.615700.4912310.20161.00020168.0650024314993112116
46Stat Fox0.638300.478939.56351.02150146.86200284180102125136
47Game Time Decision0.620570.503829.10041.02680137.27700284175107132130
48Pigskin Index0.638300.467439.17611.11300137.57800284180102122139
49Beck Elo0.606380.490919.52951.21420148.61900284171111135140
50ARGH Power Ratings0.613480.500009.1470-1.36880142.76100284173109131131
51Dwiggins0.602840.5272710.04191.43850163.13200284170112145130
52Logistic Regression0.592200.5146010.0968-1.65110170.14300284167115141133
53Dunkel Index0.602840.461829.7859-1.79280155.74400284170112127148
54Bihl Rankings0.635220.535039.4365-1.80290148.95200160101588473
55TuringFantasy0.533330.400009.56252.81250139.06800168769
56Odds Shark0.597860.4926510.21883.93260165.33500283168113134138
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses