ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2022 Season Totals

Through 2023-02-13

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Kasulis ESP2	0.56000	0.45324	9.1570	-0.01250	136.79100	151	84	66	63	76
2	Sonny Moore	0.63121	0.45455	9.3860	-0.03330	145.21000	284	178	104	125	150
3	Sagarin Points	0.67730	0.48000	9.1664	-0.03650	144.92600	284	191	91	132	143
4	Ashby AccuRatings	0.60993	0.49049	9.2290	-0.05200	141.35300	284	172	110	129	134
5	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.63475	0.48000	9.3357	-0.06260	148.65600	284	179	103	132	143
6	Sagarin Rating	0.66312	0.48364	9.0875	-0.07410	143.89900	284	187	95	133	142
7	John Coffey	0.66995	0.51010	9.2009	0.08390	142.17100	204	136	67	101	97
8	Stephen Kerns	0.57801	0.44689	10.0097	-0.09660	161.93400	284	163	119	122	151
9	ESPN FPI	0.63121	0.50182	9.3030	-0.10290	145.28300	284	178	104	138	137
10	Versus Sports Simulator	0.62766	0.44727	9.9509	0.12240	158.03100	284	177	105	123	152
11	Dokter Entropy	0.62766	0.47810	9.1903	0.13150	140.77800	284	177	105	131	143
12	System Median	0.62766	0.47015	9.0733	0.15520	139.04900	284	177	105	126	142
13	System Average	0.62766	0.48727	9.1187	0.16640	139.30100	284	177	105	134	141
14	Points Per Game	0.60638	0.47445	9.7438	-0.22120	155.94900	284	171	111	130	144
15	Daniel Curry Index	0.62766	0.44000	9.7229	0.23770	155.43300	284	177	105	121	154
16	Sagarin Recent	0.65248	0.48000	9.0494	-0.23910	143.27800	284	184	98	132	143
17	FF-Winners	0.68085	0.54867	8.7570	-0.24300	133.52400	284	192	90	124	102
18	Lou St. John	0.63830	0.43636	9.2202	-0.26830	140.53400	284	180	102	120	155
19	Computer Adjusted Line	0.65248	0.52907	8.7782	-0.30990	131.29000	284	184	98	91	81
20	Brent Craig	0.58642	0.44872	9.5625	0.31670	150.74500	163	95	67	70	86
21	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.55333	0.46479	9.5252	0.33580	148.48000	151	83	67	66	76
22	TeamRankings.com	0.64539	0.47619	9.1469	-0.34470	141.34500	284	182	100	130	143
23	Donchess Inference	0.64894	0.51481	9.1173	0.36440	141.01400	284	183	99	139	131
24	Line (opening)	0.62411	0.47465	8.9947	-0.37150	134.93300	284	176	106	103	114
25	Least Squares	0.63121	0.46886	9.6242	-0.39130	155.79400	284	178	104	128	145
26	RP Excel 2	0.60932	0.47940	10.1317	-0.39500	162.62900	281	170	109	128	139
27	Line (updated)	0.65248	0.58278	8.7254	-0.41900	130.37800	284	184	98	88	63
28	Talisman Red	0.61348	0.48540	9.5281	0.47660	147.59400	284	173	109	133	141
29	Line (Midweek)	0.63830		8.8169	-0.53520	132.43700	284	180	102
30	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.60638	0.50735	9.8206	-0.55910	164.99500	284	171	111	138	134
31	LS - w/ team HFA	0.60638	0.49084	10.3664	-0.63170	177.59700	284	171	111	134	139
32	Massey Ratings	0.62766	0.47273	9.2178	-0.65670	141.53700	284	177	105	130	145
33	Roger Johnson	0.62128	0.50661	10.1212	-0.67770	178.98000	236	146	89	115	112
34	Cleanup Hitter	0.61702	0.55849	9.0564	0.68010	139.89000	284	174	108	148	117
35	Pi-Rate Mean	0.62766	0.44689	9.5159	0.69050	148.23700	284	177	105	122	151
36	Pi-Rate Bias	0.61348	0.44322	9.6007	0.69580	149.87500	284	173	109	121	152
37	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.62057	0.45018	9.6884	0.72780	153.12900	284	175	107	122	149
38	Dan Hanson	0.60851	0.51101	9.5900	0.75180	156.51200	236	143	92	116	111
39	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.63475	0.48718	9.4473	-0.75280	150.08200	284	179	103	133	140
40	Laffaye RWP	0.61364	0.47471	10.3767	0.76630	176.03000	266	162	102	122	135
41	Scoring Effeciency	0.64539	0.49091	9.1124	0.77850	141.63700	284	182	100	135	140
42	PerformanZ Ratings	0.62057	0.46545	9.5989	-0.78360	150.05800	284	175	107	128	147
43	RP Excel	0.56631	0.45600	10.1103	-0.80070	169.38900	281	158	121	114	136
44	Pythagorean Ratings	0.63475	0.45091	9.5048	0.88520	149.03900	284	179	103	124	151
45	Roundtable	0.61570	0.49123	10.2016	1.00020	168.06500	243	149	93	112	116
46	Stat Fox	0.63830	0.47893	9.5635	1.02150	146.86200	284	180	102	125	136
47	Game Time Decision	0.62057	0.50382	9.1004	1.02680	137.27700	284	175	107	132	130
48	Pigskin Index	0.63830	0.46743	9.1761	1.11300	137.57800	284	180	102	122	139
49	Beck Elo	0.60638	0.49091	9.5295	1.21420	148.61900	284	171	111	135	140
50	ARGH Power Ratings	0.61348	0.50000	9.1470	-1.36880	142.76100	284	173	109	131	131
51	Dwiggins	0.60284	0.52727	10.0419	1.43850	163.13200	284	170	112	145	130
52	Logistic Regression	0.59220	0.51460	10.0968	-1.65110	170.14300	284	167	115	141	133
53	Dunkel Index	0.60284	0.46182	9.7859	-1.79280	155.74400	284	170	112	127	148
54	Bihl Rankings	0.63522	0.53503	9.4365	-1.80290	148.95200	160	101	58	84	73
55	TuringFantasy	0.53333	0.40000	9.5625	2.81250	139.06800	16	8	7	6	9
56	Odds Shark	0.59786	0.49265	10.2188	3.93260	165.33500	283	168	113	134	138

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses