Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2020 Season Totals

Through 2021-02-07
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Lou St. John0.682840.5114510.03750.14580169.5150026918385134128
2Dan Hanson0.618640.4978411.15700.17040207.5140023714690115116
3TuringFantasy0.635590.5180211.61180.18570214.1600023715086115107
4Talisman Red0.649210.5107510.80050.30970190.87900191124679591
5ProComputerGambler0.679100.530539.92260.31340165.4330026918286139123
6Least Abs. Val Reg0.664180.5193810.18460.36600173.2010026917890134124
7PerformanZ Ratings0.660450.5419810.02800.36990166.9880026917791142120
8Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.682840.4942110.19220.37660170.3000026918385128131
9Least Squares0.645520.5289610.29330.38180175.8330026917395137122
10Logistic Regression0.645520.5039110.81310.41700191.7520026917395129127
11Massey Ratings0.660450.5095810.09780.47870168.3370026917791133128
12LS - w/ team HFA0.612780.5351611.42830.55780210.27000267163103137119
13RP Excel 20.517240.4864912.77680.67380253.53000233120112108114
14Turnover Adj. regressio0.615670.5440610.33990.68010174.97100269165103142119
15Kasulis ESP20.679100.484139.98440.74500163.3120026918286122130
16ThePowerRank.com0.679100.527349.92260.88930164.6900026918286135121
17RP Excel0.659750.4805210.71071.00000193.0040024215982111120
18Line (updated)0.664180.529809.84761.02600162.47000269178908071
19Computer Adjusted Line0.667910.547179.82161.12640161.85400269179898772
20Line (Midweek)0.671649.84011.12640160.1570026918088
21Sagarin Points0.660450.521249.98791.23070166.3700026917791135124
22Sagarin Rating0.660450.526729.94231.23480165.4640026917791138124
23Sagarin Recent0.652990.5210710.13291.23910169.6860026917593136125
24Sagarin Golden Mean0.652990.550009.93171.25220164.3330026917593143117
25Bihl Rankings0.648150.4683510.37301.30080182.30100162105577484
26Donchess Inference0.686510.5473310.16251.42570172.3790025317379133110
27ARGH Power Ratings0.649250.5000010.19241.51770172.9150026917494123123
28FF-Winners0.623130.4734710.56511.54650178.33300269167101116129
29ESPN FPI0.671640.534359.94031.55560163.3610026918088140122
30System Median0.679100.527569.84911.76000164.2990026918286134120
31Pi-Rate Ratings0.675370.533079.92191.76590165.7800026918187137120
32Pi-Rate Bias0.671640.535439.95761.76730167.0440026918088136118
33Pi-Rate Mean0.675370.550399.89591.77180165.6240026918187142116
34Line (opening)0.638060.550669.87551.80110161.1000026917197125102
35Ashby AccuRatings0.638060.5282310.08911.84450171.9200026917197131117
36System Average0.671640.519089.92231.86660165.6430026918088136126
37Points Per Game0.660450.5381710.40291.89460180.7010026917791141121
38Stephen Kerns0.671640.5269210.39221.94830178.0450026918088137123
39Sonny Moore0.667910.5190810.12562.01770174.5850026917989136126
40Dokter Entropy0.664180.557259.83892.02110163.2530026917890146116
41TeamRankings.com0.649250.539069.89492.02650166.3440026917494138118
42Sportsformulator0.670630.5294111.41902.04360207.9180025316983126112
43Daniel Curry Index0.664180.5114510.46302.11010180.0180026917890134128
44Versus Sports Simulator0.644190.5095810.47422.31810187.3390026817295133128
45Cleanup Hitter0.600750.4883710.75652.48210187.83900269161107126132
46John Coffey0.630210.4705910.68052.54830190.85000192121718899
47Scoring Effeciency0.615670.5210710.34982.85090177.45900269165103136125
48Pythagorean Ratings0.638060.5381710.34452.87090176.5460026917197141121
49Covers.com0.660450.5280010.02802.89800169.0620026917791132118
50Game Time Decision0.634150.4910710.23512.93200173.1800024715690110114
51Dunkel Index0.666670.4534411.37303.06130213.9820025316884112135
52Stat Fox0.626870.5059310.60983.10850186.33100269168100128125
53Pigskin Index0.634330.4937810.22693.11220175.1350026917098119122
54Roundtable0.624450.4590911.30003.35240214.0570023014386101119
55Beck Elo0.634330.5038210.60653.39210188.2620026917098132130
56Steven Jens0.626870.5000010.72264.08660190.10800269168100131131
57Dwiggins0.597460.4978411.31414.44830213.5360023714195115116
58Odds Shark0.621280.4956512.93477.18810256.1670023614689114116
59Steven Jens 20.527200.5170913.02187.42170282.31800240126113121113
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses