ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2017 Season Totals

Through 2018-02-05

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	System Median	0.65543	0.54724	10.4155	-0.01190	183.72000	267	175	92	139	115
2	Sagarin Points	0.65543	0.54054	10.4558	-0.03290	185.54200	267	175	92	140	119
3	System Average	0.65543	0.54264	10.4162	-0.06440	184.47100	267	175	92	140	118
4	Sagarin Rating	0.67416	0.51351	10.4090	-0.07180	185.09500	267	180	87	133	126
5	Beck Elo	0.61798	0.50579	10.9872	-0.08540	200.15400	267	165	102	131	128
6	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.67041	0.50965	10.6027	-0.09330	191.97600	267	179	88	132	127
7	John Coffey	0.68421	0.56593	10.2760	0.10050	172.76500	190	130	60	103	79
8	Cleanup Hitter	0.59551	0.50602	11.1237	-0.10060	204.75900	267	159	108	126	123
9	IronRank.com	0.62745	0.48790	11.1099	0.11620	207.15500	255	160	95	121	127
10	Kalin Ratings	0.64259	0.51765	10.5713	-0.12040	187.86800	263	169	94	132	123
11	ThePowerRank.com	0.64794	0.57087	10.4738	0.12340	186.58000	267	173	94	145	109
12	Pythagorean Ratings	0.64045	0.52896	10.9506	0.15240	206.63100	267	171	96	137	122
13	NutShell Sports	0.63296	0.51969	12.3032	0.16700	250.71600	267	169	98	132	122
14	FF-Winners	0.65169	0.52917	10.7828	-0.16850	198.82800	267	174	93	127	113
15	Sagarin Recent	0.65169	0.53906	10.6122	-0.16930	186.29700	267	174	93	138	118
16	PerformanZ Ratings	0.64419	0.57529	10.7469	-0.19240	188.17200	267	172	95	149	110
17	YourLinx	0.65873	0.56967	10.5450	0.20880	187.49000	252	166	86	139	105
18	Scoring Effeciency	0.62172	0.50388	10.8275	0.24070	198.28600	267	166	101	130	128
19	Donchess Inference	0.68539	0.55598	10.3114	0.24450	181.90600	267	183	84	144	115
20	RP Excel 2	0.66160	0.50000	11.3840	-0.26620	212.08300	263	174	89	125	125
21	Roundtable	0.66810	0.53953	11.5344	0.27610	220.42600	232	155	77	116	99
22	ARGH Power Ratings	0.64906	0.57317	10.4849	-0.28300	183.26700	265	172	93	141	105
23	ComPughter Ratings	0.67416	0.52510	11.1166	-0.31590	207.86000	267	180	87	136	123
24	Game Time Decision	0.66667	0.54497	10.1760	0.33150	177.31300	213	142	71	103	86
25	Covers.com	0.65169	0.51250	10.6123	0.34670	190.26400	267	174	93	123	117
26	Massey Ratings	0.66667	0.54440	10.5366	-0.35090	187.23300	267	178	89	141	118
27	TheSportsCruncher	0.66412	0.52823	10.5767	-0.36830	181.12500	262	174	88	131	117
28	Line (Midweek)	0.66292		10.2659	-0.37830	177.41300	267	177	90
29	Line (opening)	0.65918	0.52913	10.2453	-0.38010	176.41600	267	176	91	109	97
30	Laffaye RWP	0.65401	0.55217	11.1792	0.38220	212.18900	237	155	82	127	103
31	Dwiggins	0.65169	0.50388	11.1859	0.40010	215.17500	267	174	93	130	128
32	Kasulis ESP2	0.65918	0.50813	10.4285	-0.40070	182.76300	267	176	91	125	121
33	Ashby AccuRatings	0.64419	0.50000	10.6406	-0.40740	188.13100	267	172	95	123	123
34	Daniel Curry Index	0.66932	0.48971	11.6259	0.43200	219.89900	251	168	83	119	124
35	Sonny Moore	0.67041	0.53282	10.9010	0.43820	200.29300	267	179	88	138	121
36	Computer Adjusted Line	0.67416	0.56742	10.1629	-0.46250	174.99500	267	180	87	101	77
37	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.64794	0.52964	10.6206	0.46710	192.58500	267	173	94	134	119
38	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.64045	0.50980	10.6341	-0.47080	190.05500	267	171	96	130	125
39	Pi-Rate Mean	0.65918	0.51163	10.6250	0.47240	193.48400	267	176	91	132	126
40	Pi-Rate Bias	0.64794	0.53516	10.6404	0.49070	192.15000	267	173	94	137	119
41	Bihl Rankings	0.71023	0.53571	10.2747	0.49540	178.06400	176	125	51	90	78
42	Line (updated)	0.67790	0.60000	10.1124	-0.51690	173.55700	267	181	86	99	66
43	Stat Fox	0.65918	0.51012	10.8278	0.57370	201.90900	267	176	91	126	121
44	TeamRankings.com	0.67790	0.52756	10.4723	0.57790	188.67000	267	181	86	134	120
45	Lee Burdorf	0.64151	0.50391	11.5223	0.58420	221.15800	265	170	95	129	127
46	Dokter Entropy	0.65918	0.47876	10.5888	-0.63190	185.86200	267	176	91	124	135
47	Turner Rateform	0.62698	0.55144	10.9758	0.66230	206.21000	252	158	94	134	109
48	Pigskin Index	0.63670	0.51477	10.5433	0.66350	188.51400	267	170	97	122	115
49	Lou St. John	0.68165	0.53488	10.3869	-0.74580	184.21500	267	182	85	138	120
50	Dan Hanson	0.60593	0.48246	11.1208	-0.75360	202.73300	236	143	93	110	118
51	Stephen Kerns	0.66667	0.52124	11.0109	-0.75460	202.88900	267	178	89	135	124
52	Talisman Red	0.66292	0.47104	11.1300	-0.81340	203.41600	267	177	90	122	137
53	Points Per Game	0.61049	0.49805	11.5845	-0.81520	222.12100	267	163	104	128	129
54	Logistic Regression	0.63670	0.51550	11.2099	-0.84730	210.57300	267	170	97	133	125
55	RP Excel	0.63878	0.47755	12.0646	-0.90110	244.19800	263	168	95	117	128
56	Roger Johnson	0.66364	0.54717	10.4587	-0.95260	183.11500	220	146	74	116	96
57	Dunkel Index	0.65543	0.52713	11.6667	1.05390	221.40800	267	175	92	136	122
58	LS - w/ team HFA	0.61423	0.47638	11.6521	-1.14440	230.81500	267	164	103	121	133
59	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.65169	0.50000	11.0950	-1.15730	203.57900	267	174	93	127	127
60	ESPN FPI	0.67416	0.50579	10.5721	1.20760	190.22000	267	180	87	131	128
61	Turnover Adj. regressio	0.62172	0.48263	11.2966	-1.42930	207.52600	267	166	101	125	134
62	Least Squares	0.64419	0.52529	11.0307	-1.47240	203.73500	267	172	95	135	122
63	ProComputerGambler	0.66667	0.50193	10.3354	-1.53520	179.36000	267	178	89	130	129
64	Steven Jens	0.63529	0.47154	11.3266	1.61140	211.03100	255	162	93	116	130
65	What If Sports	0.63296	0.49020	10.9880	-2.17600	197.56500	267	169	98	125	130

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses