Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1CPA Rankings0.666670.5251010.9995-0.02460187.9480026717889136123
2CPA Retro Rankings0.670410.5019310.9536-0.02750191.8530026717988130129
3NutShell Sports0.640450.5135111.12580.04860192.4550026717196133126
4JFM Power Ratings0.636700.5559811.01380.05710186.9980026717097144115
5Eric Hollobaugh0.707320.5445511.0438-0.10860194.177002051456011092
6Sagarin0.666670.5697710.7854-0.11250183.9790026717889147111
7Sagarin Elo0.659180.5444011.0281-0.11830191.4130026717691141118
8Sagarin Predictive0.651690.5852710.7894-0.11970183.6860026717493151107
9Michael Robert Ratings0.642550.5087011.11920.16680193.4300023515184117113
10Lee Burdorf0.674160.5426411.60480.20040211.5370026718087140118
11Dokter Entropy0.617980.4787611.07820.20620191.38700267165102124135
12Line (opening)0.674160.4918910.8727-0.21720182.16100267180879194
13Scoring Effeciency0.635340.5000011.3108-0.23240199.1390026616997129129
14Dunkel Index0.603000.5387611.34520.26120194.29300267161106139119
15Brian Gabrielle0.656490.5423710.89120.26950184.8350026217290128108
16Pigskin Index0.636700.5400811.00770.28150188.5160026717097128109
17Dwiggins0.684620.5542211.20380.30930197.2210026017882138111
18What If Sports0.636720.4879011.97080.31970221.6880025616393121127
19John Coffey0.673170.5049510.8166-0.32300187.6110020513867102100
20Tom Benson0.599250.4845011.6842-0.35010204.29300267160107125133
21Stat Fox0.640450.5020611.21740.35630192.7490026717196122121
22System Median0.655430.5607810.8281-0.36570182.4750026717592143112
23Ashby AccuRatings0.625470.4917411.00400.37540186.05100267167100119123
24Line (updated)0.6853910.7135-0.39140178.8580026718384
25Computer Adjusted Line0.681650.5952410.6966-0.39700178.31200267182855034
26TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
27System Average0.651690.5637110.7819-0.43180180.9940026717493146113
28Bihl Rankings0.690320.5657910.69990.44190176.43200155107488666
29Game Time Decision0.641670.5486711.0752-0.45800182.1850012077436251
30Jeff Self0.635000.5329911.3050-0.46960206.470002001277310592
31Kambour Rating0.651690.5405410.8506-0.50390183.4020026717493140119
32Viacheslav0.638890.4890511.01490.57120187.5510014492526770
33Sourjax0.657530.5094311.18040.57140196.6430021914475108104
34Pigskin Herald0.672930.5177911.3695-0.60640199.5790026617987131122
35Stephen Kerns0.632960.5096511.9218-0.60780225.1640026716998132127
36Beck Elo0.670410.5482611.0452-0.67370188.8730026717988142117
37Hank Trexler0.666670.5000010.8652-0.67790185.2230026717889125125
38Ed Bemiss0.680000.5578910.6620-0.74490182.358002001366410684
39ARGH Power Ratings0.685260.5357111.0219-0.76290190.0730025117279120104
40NutShell Retro0.645420.5020411.1854-0.76410194.7500025116289123122
41Covers.com0.561800.4710411.9046-0.85640224.51700267150117122137
42Reistertown Index0.662920.4916711.3071-0.88760194.3230026717790118122
43Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.647940.5039111.0881-0.89690190.9630026717394129127
44Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
45Sonny Moore0.689140.5135111.1158-0.92680193.5100026718483133126
46Deslock Rankings0.665180.5162811.9157-0.94660215.8560022414975111104
47Jeff Imes0.659180.5675711.37510.96980203.3480026717691147112
48Roger Johnson0.684930.5601910.9551-0.97370190.987002191506912195
49Steven Jens0.662920.5375511.0963-1.06020189.9930026717790136117
50Pythagorean Ratings0.670410.5173711.4344-1.36430206.8420026717988134125
51Sport Trends0.659180.5000011.6221-1.38010213.0070026717691129129
52PerformanZ Ratings0.654140.5348811.2020-1.39970193.5690026617492138120
53Mike Greenfield0.697560.5445510.9020-1.44340185.961002051436211092
54LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.5348812.2272-1.47210243.73700267164103138120
55Grid Iron Gold0.600810.4786312.0141-1.52170227.7820024814999112122
56Least Squares0.655430.5232611.7110-1.52690209.2330026717592135123
57The Sports Report0.656250.5241912.3973-1.57610236.4940025616888130118
58Sports Report Elo0.656250.5483911.9478-1.61560227.0230025616888136112
59Least Abs. Val Reg0.610490.5215712.2046-1.65480227.98500267163104133122
60TSR Slots0.589840.4898814.7684-2.00540363.18000256151105121126
61Sports Report Pred0.609380.4817814.7464-2.14390369.30500256156100119128
62Upset Report0.657370.4895411.4382-2.43920208.4230025116586117122
63Logistic Regression0.671230.5324111.7291-2.47790228.2060021914772115101
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses