Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

Through 2022-02-13
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1RP Excel 20.5602813.7211-0.22070315.558001477962
2System Average0.5342510.91280.31940189.699001497868
3Daniel Curry Index0.5274011.0921-1.46620203.234001497769
4Dan Hanson0.5274011.4491-4.44990216.866001497769
5Laffaye RWP0.5241410.78340.54170190.285001487669
6Donchess Inference0.5205510.99040.53300191.420001497670
7TuringFantasy.com0.5362311.3562-1.51050216.865001467464
8Cleanup Hitter0.5174812.0503-0.00680234.305001497469
9Talisman Red0.5034512.0685-0.95820242.401001497372
10RP Excel0.5177312.00681.45210230.342001487368
11Odds Shark0.4965011.0208-0.30820193.490001497172
12Pi-Rate Ratings0.4929611.30541.68150196.907001497072
13Massey Ratings0.4827611.35131.93400199.613001497075
14Ashby AccuRatings0.4893611.12080.92470194.754001496972
15FF-Winners0.5230810.8389-0.13700190.753001496862
16John Coffey0.4520511.16460.76180194.784001496680
17Line (opening)0.5079410.88590.77050190.436001496462
18Stephen Kerns0.4532412.02681.65750219.187001496376
19Sagarin0.4344811.35700.55530201.335001496382
20System Median0.4195811.12040.71550192.720001496083
21Versus Sports Simulator0.4109611.64790.93110204.543001496086
22ARGH Power Ratings0.4100711.32890.90410197.707001495782
23Roundtable0.4359010.97622.65870189.095001265166
24Bihl Rankings0.3906311.76900.88950212.824001315078
25Line (updated)0.5641010.7987-0.12670185.074001494434
26Line (Midweek)10.84230.03080187.49100149
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses