Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Kambour Rating0.620440.5955911.21571.04010203.5180013785528155
2Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5955910.81571.05120192.6920013788498155
3Strengthranking.com0.613140.5882411.11540.51850198.5540013784538056
4NFL Pickles0.656930.5746311.2759-0.49930200.7680013790477757
5Massey Ratings0.642340.5629610.78240.94010189.6480013788497659
6PickingPros.com0.649640.5588211.34730.69910209.9970013789487660
7John Coffey0.642340.5514710.95991.41810193.3690013788497561
8Sagarin0.649640.5514710.79451.11790188.7820013789487561
9Least Squares0.620440.5441211.6472-0.10280216.5020013785527462
10Stephen Kerns0.627740.5522411.33430.49930202.2360013786517460
11Austin Sports0.644630.6166710.98920.95350199.9510012178437446
12Yarnell0.656930.5481511.68382.19740212.0590013790477461
13Pat Laffaye0.627740.5447811.36280.56720210.8370013786517361
14Covers.com0.642340.5447811.08501.69400198.2400013788497361
15CPA Rankings0.620440.5367611.4471-0.07980211.2040013785527363
16Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.649640.5367611.18251.62500199.3950013789487363
17System Median0.649640.5367611.04911.12760195.0170013789487363
18Pythagorean Ratings0.598540.5294111.21241.46410205.3630013782557264
19Upset Report0.649640.5581411.71530.63500217.9610013789487257
20Sportrends0.605840.5581411.36501.71600209.5090013783547257
21System Average0.664230.5220611.02441.04090194.4160013791467165
22Bihl Rankings0.642280.5691110.88802.23170191.6720012379447053
23Sagarin Elo0.656930.5147111.15091.10260192.7710013790477066
24PerformanZ Ratings0.598540.5185211.55230.47720208.6730013782557065
25Ashby AccuRatings0.642340.5426411.19011.51180202.1680013788497059
26Roger Johnson0.605840.5303011.2912-0.19050204.6220013783547062
27Beck Elo0.591240.5073511.39340.88800205.7280013781566967
28Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.44621.48400211.9890013786516868
29Atomic Football0.626870.5112811.36810.91760205.1440013484506865
30Dokter Entropy0.664230.5037011.07271.71170197.2380013791466867
31Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4926511.4537-0.16180205.4020013788496769
32David and Pasteur0.635040.4926511.40961.67200208.8440013787506769
33Eric Hollobaugh0.626170.6261710.43681.23500183.2580010767406740
34Michael Robert Ratings0.671530.4926511.14610.75330205.3470013792456769
35Jim Armstrong0.627740.5000011.50871.79950207.6070013786516767
36Steven Jens0.602940.5000011.45741.90440204.1610013682546666
37Nutshell Girl0.656930.4852911.28421.51510199.6170013790476670
38Logistic Regression0.554740.4962411.64740.32510204.8130013776616667
39Lee Burdorf0.591240.4887212.04601.43870236.2920013781566568
40Game Time Decision0.678830.4961811.03271.83620192.9410013793446566
41Hank Trexler0.642340.5038811.19710.35040200.3930013788496564
42Reistertown Index0.635040.4885511.81750.53280215.2610013787506467
43Sonny Moore0.613140.4632411.38680.91180205.5130013784536373
44RP Excel0.569340.4592612.82481.00000264.2340013778596273
45Wunderdog Sports0.642340.5126110.99270.40880193.4150013788496158
46YourLinx0.627740.4485311.82911.39090213.9980013786516175
47Dunkel Index0.598540.4485311.63420.53880212.0110013782556175
48Pigskin Index0.620440.4651211.34311.67980202.8880013785526069
49CPA Retro Rankings0.642340.4411811.6105-0.04230210.5720013788496076
50What If Sports0.605840.4545512.2175-0.80440225.2950013783546072
51Nutshell Combo0.627740.4264711.55371.40820204.9970013786515878
52LS - w/ team HFA0.569340.4360912.6504-0.09380242.8650013778595875
53JFM Power Ratings0.649640.4264711.29241.52580199.5720013789485878
54ARGH Power Ratings0.666670.5229411.31460.20210200.5650012080405752
55NutShell Sports0.583940.4222212.14261.44050227.1720013780575778
56Dwiggins0.640350.5089311.89481.27730230.0190011473415755
57Least Abs. Val Reg0.642340.4191212.1285-0.19340228.8880013788495779
58Cover810.686960.5045011.04780.43570193.0530011579365655
59Nationalsportsrankings0.595240.4480011.63271.38600214.2610012675515669
60Stat Fox0.642340.4341110.98551.74470193.4900013788495673
61Line (opening)0.698530.5531910.99261.05150195.0650013695415242
62Brent Craig0.572730.4761911.52761.70950213.3490011063475055
63Brian Gabrielle0.612900.4915312.10483.37900226.360006238242930
64Computer Adjusted Line0.671530.5555611.10221.13140197.8850013792452016
65Line (updated)0.6788311.12411.14600198.979001379344
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses