ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Second Half Totals

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	LS - w/ team HFA	0.63504	0.56618	11.1518	-1.71530	209.44000	137	87	50	77	59
2	JFM Power Ratings	0.64234	0.55147	11.1091	-0.19400	184.39400	137	88	49	75	61
3	Roger Johnson	0.64964	0.54412	11.1088	-1.33210	186.66900	137	89	48	74	62
4	System Average	0.64234	0.53676	11.0929	-0.67950	183.12600	137	88	49	73	63
5	Sagarin Predictive	0.64234	0.53333	11.3155	-1.02920	194.37000	137	88	49	72	63
6	Logistic Regression	0.64964	0.52206	11.4815	-2.45570	204.82900	137	89	48	71	65
7	CPA Rankings	0.65693	0.52206	11.1001	0.41070	186.88200	137	90	47	71	65
8	NutShell Retro	0.66423	0.52206	11.1920	-0.90940	188.76900	137	91	46	71	65
9	Mike Greenfield	0.64964	0.51471	11.2591	-1.85910	191.90600	137	89	48	70	66
10	Jeff Imes	0.64964	0.51471	11.5583	-0.06390	204.96100	137	89	48	70	66
11	Michael Robert Ratings	0.65693	0.51471	11.1626	0.04390	191.48500	137	90	47	70	66
12	PerformanZ Ratings	0.66423	0.51471	11.3406	-1.48230	196.08500	137	91	46	70	66
13	Sagarin	0.66423	0.51852	11.2663	-1.02310	192.07100	137	91	46	70	65
14	Pythagorean Ratings	0.67153	0.51471	11.2247	-1.06580	193.58900	137	92	45	70	66
15	Kambour Rating	0.67153	0.51471	11.0061	-0.81280	185.21500	137	92	45	70	66
16	Eric Hollobaugh	0.67883	0.50735	11.4691	-0.13480	198.53900	137	93	44	69	67
17	TheSportsCruncher	0.68382	0.52672	11.1056	-0.41400	182.38400	136	93	43	69	62
18	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.62774	0.51880	11.7536	-1.92310	209.01400	137	86	51	69	64
19	Least Squares	0.64964	0.50735	11.4682	-1.53200	194.55900	137	89	48	69	67
20	John Coffey	0.64234	0.50000	11.2587	-0.53200	190.89900	137	88	49	68	68
21	Lee Burdorf	0.64234	0.50370	12.2212	-0.28250	227.35100	137	88	49	68	67
22	System Median	0.64234	0.50370	11.1185	-0.64190	185.00700	137	88	49	68	67
23	Sport Trends	0.66423	0.50000	11.5919	-2.64150	211.80500	137	91	46	68	68
24	Scoring Effeciency	0.62774	0.50000	11.2750	-0.21070	193.94700	137	86	51	68	68
25	Sourjax	0.64964	0.50370	11.1072	0.38420	191.97500	137	89	48	68	67
26	Steven Jens	0.62774	0.50758	11.1037	-0.77660	185.46600	137	86	51	67	65
27	NutShell Sports	0.62774	0.49265	11.3371	-0.15140	193.00500	137	86	51	67	69
28	Dunkel Index	0.59854	0.49630	11.7773	-0.13230	203.97600	137	82	55	67	68
29	Cover81	0.72000	0.58261	10.6640	-0.91840	171.26300	125	90	35	67	48
30	CPA Retro Rankings	0.67883	0.49265	11.0707	0.44640	191.53600	137	93	44	67	69
31	Sonny Moore	0.67153	0.49265	11.4588	-1.20660	196.71700	137	92	45	67	69
32	Stat Fox	0.65693	0.53600	11.4452	0.20470	194.65700	137	90	47	67	58
33	Pigskin Index	0.64234	0.54545	11.1169	0.00770	186.00600	137	88	49	66	55
34	Ed Bemiss	0.67692	0.52381	11.0984	-0.87220	190.49800	130	88	42	66	60
35	Pigskin Herald	0.65441	0.48507	11.7956	-1.24410	201.40800	136	89	47	65	69
36	Sports Report Pred	0.69048	0.51200	11.9143	-1.52570	235.49300	126	87	39	64	61
37	Hank Trexler	0.64964	0.49612	11.0365	-0.89050	184.27200	137	89	48	64	65
38	Stephen Kerns	0.63504	0.47059	12.3832	-0.91750	234.48100	137	87	50	64	72
39	TSR Slots	0.65079	0.50400	12.1663	-1.49720	237.14800	126	82	44	63	62
40	Dokter Entropy	0.62774	0.45588	11.2387	-0.37680	193.71400	137	86	51	62	74
41	The Sports Report	0.66667	0.49600	11.7728	-1.56130	208.52400	126	84	42	62	63
42	Sports Report Elo	0.68254	0.49600	12.2609	-1.30500	227.03200	126	86	40	62	63
43	Sagarin Elo	0.64964	0.44853	11.5644	-0.99200	200.82000	137	89	48	61	75
44	Beck Elo	0.65693	0.44853	11.3983	-1.04360	194.80900	137	90	47	61	75
45	Reistertown Index	0.66423	0.48031	11.5255	-0.95620	200.05900	137	91	46	61	66
46	Dwiggins	0.67692	0.47287	11.7077	-0.42920	207.79200	130	88	42	61	68
47	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.64234	0.45865	11.4912	-1.43580	195.76200	137	88	49	61	72
48	Ashby AccuRatings	0.64964	0.47619	11.2628	0.15360	188.38500	137	89	48	60	66
49	What If Sports	0.65079	0.47200	11.8233	-0.30060	204.55600	126	82	44	59	66
50	Brian Gabrielle	0.65152	0.47581	11.3411	-0.10560	191.06400	132	86	46	59	65
51	Covers.com	0.49635	0.43382	12.6215	-1.09440	245.74800	137	68	69	59	77
52	Upset Report	0.66942	0.49573	11.2612	-2.00660	202.87400	121	81	40	58	59
53	Tom Benson	0.61314	0.42647	12.1597	0.33110	212.98300	137	84	53	58	78
54	Jeff Self	0.63478	0.49123	11.2537	-0.31040	193.18600	115	73	42	56	58
55	Grid Iron Gold	0.62712	0.49558	12.0676	-1.49980	225.60400	118	74	44	56	57
56	ARGH Power Ratings	0.64463	0.49107	11.5702	-1.25620	197.22100	121	78	43	55	57
57	Game Time Decision	0.63208	0.52525	11.0285	0.15110	178.58500	106	67	39	52	47
58	Bihl Rankings	0.66337	0.50000	11.2979	0.26430	186.47400	101	67	34	50	50
59	Line (opening)	0.68613	0.46939	10.9745	-0.60220	179.45900	137	94	43	46	52
60	Deslock Rankings	0.67021	0.46237	11.8131	-0.41180	209.47500	94	63	31	43	50
61	Computer Adjusted Line	0.70073	0.46512	10.8796	-0.71900	178.46900	137	96	41	20	23
62	Viacheslav	0.42857	0.21429	13.5229	5.17860	227.37100	14	6	8	3	11
63	Line (updated)	0.70073		10.8358	-0.73360	177.84100	137	96	41

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses