ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2023 Season Totals

Through 2023-09-25

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Turnover Adj. regression	0.66667	0.63636	10.0381	0.58690	190.18800	48	32	16	28	16
2	RP Excel	0.62500	0.61364	12.3958	2.18750	240.79600	48	30	18	27	17
3	Laffaye RWP	0.68750	0.59091	10.6838	2.28040	217.44900	48	33	15	26	18
4	Sonny Moore	0.56250	0.59091	10.5306	1.24560	204.81600	48	27	21	26	18
5	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.60417	0.59091	10.2417	1.92500	194.35700	48	29	19	26	18
6	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.56250	0.59524	10.6690	0.93440	200.36700	48	27	21	25	17
7	Pi-Rate Mean	0.60417	0.56818	10.2708	1.97500	195.37400	48	29	19	25	19
8	Versus Sports Simulator	0.58333	0.54545	11.5181	1.66190	240.47500	48	28	20	24	20
9	Dokter Entropy	0.58333	0.54545	10.8775	0.85670	217.86300	48	28	20	24	20
10	Stat Fox	0.56250	0.57143	10.5213	2.39620	205.32200	48	27	21	24	18
11	Stephen Kerns	0.60417	0.54545	11.0229	1.48540	218.17600	48	29	19	24	20
12	Pi-Rate Bias	0.60417	0.55814	10.4042	1.99580	195.33600	48	29	19	24	19
13	Least Squares	0.62500	0.54545	10.4667	1.20540	201.18000	48	30	18	24	20
14	PerformanZ Ratings	0.66667	0.54545	10.0967	0.88790	204.70500	48	32	16	24	20
15	Talisman Red	0.68750	0.53488	10.4552	1.05270	210.74400	48	33	15	23	20
16	Points Per Game	0.58333	0.52273	14.9450	0.80710	391.90900	48	28	20	23	21
17	LS - w/ team HFA	0.60417	0.52273	10.4206	1.14730	190.44500	48	29	19	23	21
18	Donchess Inference	0.60417	0.52273	10.8313	1.44380	221.38000	48	29	19	23	21
19	ARGH Power Ratings	0.70833	0.52273	10.4271	0.00000	214.43200	48	34	14	23	21
20	TeamRankings.com	0.62500	0.51163	10.4729	1.13130	206.37400	48	30	18	22	21
21	Lou St. John	0.62500	0.47727	10.7110	1.79900	208.79300	48	30	18	21	23
22	Pythagorean Ratings	0.54167	0.47727	13.0946	1.25370	283.79600	48	26	22	21	23
23	System Average	0.58333	0.47727	10.5769	1.51400	207.36700	48	28	20	21	23
24	ESPN FPI	0.60417	0.47727	10.6804	0.48540	213.74800	48	29	19	21	23
25	Logistic Regression	0.66667	0.47727	11.1821	0.04330	225.53100	48	32	16	21	23
26	Daniel Curry Index	0.54167	0.45455	11.6756	0.51440	236.71600	48	26	22	20	24
27	Ashby AccuRatings	0.54167	0.51282	10.7925	1.29250	217.30600	48	26	22	20	19
28	Massey Ratings	0.62500	0.45455	10.4765	0.38480	208.11500	48	30	18	20	24
29	Line (opening)	0.52083	0.46341	11.0521	0.57290	222.31100	48	25	23	19	22
30	Sagarin Recent	0.60417	0.43182	11.0187	1.61830	217.15200	48	29	19	19	25
31	Pigskin Index	0.54167	0.48718	11.1460	2.60440	211.54800	48	26	22	19	20
32	Dwiggins	0.60417	0.43182	13.6542	5.04580	341.42800	48	29	19	19	25
33	Cleanup Hitter	0.58333	0.45238	11.1148	1.76060	215.16400	48	28	20	19	23
34	Sagarin Rating	0.62500	0.43182	10.9760	1.50100	218.11200	48	30	18	19	25
35	Sagarin Points	0.62500	0.41860	10.8646	1.30380	216.64000	48	30	18	18	25
36	System Median	0.62500	0.46154	10.6100	1.35290	208.07100	48	30	18	18	21
37	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.58333	0.38636	11.0865	1.43690	222.13600	48	28	20	17	27
38	FF-Winners	0.64583	0.47222	10.7292	0.85420	212.50600	48	31	17	17	19
39	Odds Shark	0.48936	0.37209	12.5553	4.94260	271.48800	47	23	24	16	27
40	Scoring Effeciency	0.54348	0.35714	12.2083	1.23650	263.03100	46	25	21	15	27
41	Beck Elo	0.47917	0.34091	11.4825	2.82750	230.26500	48	23	25	15	29
42	Computer Adjusted Line	0.60417	0.44828	10.4583	0.83330	207.72500	48	29	19	13	16
43	Line (updated)	0.60417	0.44828	10.4375	0.75000	207.75900	48	29	19	13	16
44	Game Time Decision	0.56250	0.32500	11.3750	2.50040	222.12100	48	27	21	13	27
45	Dan Hanson	0.62500	0.42857	11.4650	-2.57190	237.29900	32	20	12	12	16
46	Dunkel Index	0.62500	0.44444	10.3003	-1.41530	234.02900	32	20	12	12	15
47	Roundtable	0.43750	0.18750	19.4375	-3.31250	511.25200	16	7	9	3	13
48	Line (Midweek)	0.60417		10.3854	0.80210	206.84600	48	29	19

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses