Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Sagarin Predictive0.651690.5852710.7894-0.11970183.6860026717493151107
2Jeff Imes0.659180.5675711.37510.96980203.3480026717691147112
3Sagarin0.666670.5697710.7854-0.11250183.9790026717889147111
4System Average0.651690.5637110.7819-0.43180180.9940026717493146113
5JFM Power Ratings0.636700.5559811.01380.05710186.9980026717097144115
6System Median0.655430.5607810.8281-0.36570182.4750026717592143112
7Beck Elo0.670410.5482611.0452-0.67370188.8730026717988142117
8Sagarin Elo0.659180.5444011.0281-0.11830191.4130026717691141118
9Lee Burdorf0.674160.5426411.60480.20040211.5370026718087140118
10Kambour Rating0.651690.5405410.8506-0.50390183.4020026717493140119
11Dunkel Index0.603000.5387611.34520.26120194.29300267161106139119
12Dwiggins0.684620.5542211.20380.30930197.2210026017882138111
13LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.5348812.2272-1.47210243.73700267164103138120
14PerformanZ Ratings0.654140.5348811.2020-1.39970193.5690026617492138120
15Sports Report Elo0.656250.5483911.9478-1.61560227.0230025616888136112
16CPA Rankings0.666670.5251010.9995-0.02460187.9480026717889136123
17Steven Jens0.662920.5375511.0963-1.06020189.9930026717790136117
18Least Squares0.655430.5232611.7110-1.52690209.2330026717592135123
19Pythagorean Ratings0.670410.5173711.4344-1.36430206.8420026717988134125
20NutShell Sports0.640450.5135111.12580.04860192.4550026717196133126
21Sonny Moore0.689140.5135111.1158-0.92680193.5100026718483133126
22Least Abs. Val Reg0.610490.5215712.2046-1.65480227.98500267163104133122
23Stephen Kerns0.632960.5096511.9218-0.60780225.1640026716998132127
24Pigskin Herald0.672930.5177911.3695-0.60640199.5790026617987131122
25CPA Retro Rankings0.670410.5019310.9536-0.02750191.8530026717988130129
26The Sports Report0.656250.5241912.3973-1.57610236.4940025616888130118
27Sport Trends0.659180.5000011.6221-1.38010213.0070026717691129129
28Scoring Effeciency0.635340.5000011.3108-0.23240199.1390026616997129129
29Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.647940.5039111.0881-0.89690190.9630026717394129127
30Brian Gabrielle0.656490.5423710.89120.26950184.8350026217290128108
31Pigskin Index0.636700.5400811.00770.28150188.5160026717097128109
32Hank Trexler0.666670.5000010.8652-0.67790185.2230026717889125125
33Tom Benson0.599250.4845011.6842-0.35010204.29300267160107125133
34Dokter Entropy0.617980.4787611.07820.20620191.38700267165102124135
35NutShell Retro0.645420.5020411.1854-0.76410194.7500025116289123122
36Covers.com0.561800.4710411.9046-0.85640224.51700267150117122137
37Stat Fox0.640450.5020611.21740.35630192.7490026717196122121
38TSR Slots0.589840.4898814.7684-2.00540363.18000256151105121126
39Roger Johnson0.684930.5601910.9551-0.97370190.987002191506912195
40What If Sports0.636720.4879011.97080.31970221.6880025616393121127
41ARGH Power Ratings0.685260.5357111.0219-0.76290190.0730025117279120104
42Sports Report Pred0.609380.4817814.7464-2.14390369.30500256156100119128
43Ashby AccuRatings0.625470.4917411.00400.37540186.05100267167100119123
44Reistertown Index0.662920.4916711.3071-0.88760194.3230026717790118122
45Upset Report0.657370.4895411.4382-2.43920208.4230025116586117122
46Michael Robert Ratings0.642550.5087011.11920.16680193.4300023515184117113
47Logistic Regression0.671230.5324111.7291-2.47790228.2060021914772115101
48Grid Iron Gold0.600810.4786312.0141-1.52170227.7820024814999112122
49Deslock Rankings0.665180.5162811.9157-0.94660215.8560022414975111104
50Eric Hollobaugh0.707320.5445511.0438-0.10860194.177002051456011092
51Mike Greenfield0.697560.5445510.9020-1.44340185.961002051436211092
52Sourjax0.657530.5094311.18040.57140196.6430021914475108104
53Ed Bemiss0.680000.5578910.6620-0.74490182.358002001366410684
54Jeff Self0.635000.5329911.3050-0.46960206.470002001277310592
55John Coffey0.673170.5049510.8166-0.32300187.6110020513867102100
56Line (opening)0.674160.4918910.8727-0.21720182.16100267180879194
57Bihl Rankings0.690320.5657910.69990.44190176.43200155107488666
58TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
59Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
60Viacheslav0.638890.4890511.01490.57120187.5510014492526770
61Game Time Decision0.641670.5486711.0752-0.45800182.1850012077436251
62Computer Adjusted Line0.681650.5952410.6966-0.39700178.31200267182855034
63Line (updated)0.6853910.7135-0.39140178.8580026718384
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses