ThePredictionTracker NFL RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2010 Second Half Totals

Through

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Line (updated)	0.67883		11.1241	1.14600	198.97900	137	93	44
2	Computer Adjusted Line	0.67153	0.55556	11.1022	1.13140	197.88500	137	92	45	20	16
3	Brian Gabrielle	0.61290	0.49153	12.1048	3.37900	226.36000	62	38	24	29	30
4	Eric Hollobaugh	0.62617	0.62617	10.4368	1.23500	183.25800	107	67	40	67	40
5	Line (opening)	0.69853	0.55319	10.9926	1.05150	195.06500	136	95	41	52	42
6	Austin Sports	0.64463	0.61667	10.9892	0.95350	199.95100	121	78	43	74	46
7	ARGH Power Ratings	0.66667	0.52294	11.3146	0.20210	200.56500	120	80	40	57	52
8	Bihl Rankings	0.64228	0.56911	10.8880	2.23170	191.67200	123	79	44	70	53
9	Kambour Rating	0.62044	0.59559	11.2157	1.04010	203.51800	137	85	52	81	55
10	Dwiggins	0.64035	0.50893	11.8948	1.27730	230.01900	114	73	41	57	55
11	Brent Craig	0.57273	0.47619	11.5276	1.70950	213.34900	110	63	47	50	55
12	Cover81	0.68696	0.50450	11.0478	0.43570	193.05300	115	79	36	56	55
13	Sagarin Predictive	0.64234	0.59559	10.8157	1.05120	192.69200	137	88	49	81	55
14	Strengthranking.com	0.61314	0.58824	11.1154	0.51850	198.55400	137	84	53	80	56
15	NFL Pickles	0.65693	0.57463	11.2759	-0.49930	200.76800	137	90	47	77	57
16	Upset Report	0.64964	0.55814	11.7153	0.63500	217.96100	137	89	48	72	57
17	Sportrends	0.60584	0.55814	11.3650	1.71600	209.50900	137	83	54	72	57
18	Wunderdog Sports	0.64234	0.51261	10.9927	0.40880	193.41500	137	88	49	61	58
19	Massey Ratings	0.64234	0.56296	10.7824	0.94010	189.64800	137	88	49	76	59
20	Ashby AccuRatings	0.64234	0.54264	11.1901	1.51180	202.16800	137	88	49	70	59
21	Stephen Kerns	0.62774	0.55224	11.3343	0.49930	202.23600	137	86	51	74	60
22	PickingPros.com	0.64964	0.55882	11.3473	0.69910	209.99700	137	89	48	76	60
23	Covers.com	0.64234	0.54478	11.0850	1.69400	198.24000	137	88	49	73	61
24	Pat Laffaye	0.62774	0.54478	11.3628	0.56720	210.83700	137	86	51	73	61
25	John Coffey	0.64234	0.55147	10.9599	1.41810	193.36900	137	88	49	75	61
26	Sagarin	0.64964	0.55147	10.7945	1.11790	188.78200	137	89	48	75	61
27	Yarnell	0.65693	0.54815	11.6838	2.19740	212.05900	137	90	47	74	61
28	Roger Johnson	0.60584	0.53030	11.2912	-0.19050	204.62200	137	83	54	70	62
29	Least Squares	0.62044	0.54412	11.6472	-0.10280	216.50200	137	85	52	74	62
30	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.64964	0.53676	11.1825	1.62500	199.39500	137	89	48	73	63
31	System Median	0.64964	0.53676	11.0491	1.12760	195.01700	137	89	48	73	63
32	CPA Rankings	0.62044	0.53676	11.4471	-0.07980	211.20400	137	85	52	73	63
33	Hank Trexler	0.64234	0.50388	11.1971	0.35040	200.39300	137	88	49	65	64
34	Pythagorean Ratings	0.59854	0.52941	11.2124	1.46410	205.36300	137	82	55	72	64
35	PerformanZ Ratings	0.59854	0.51852	11.5523	0.47720	208.67300	137	82	55	70	65
36	System Average	0.66423	0.52206	11.0244	1.04090	194.41600	137	91	46	71	65
37	Atomic Football	0.62687	0.51128	11.3681	0.91760	205.14400	134	84	50	68	65
38	Game Time Decision	0.67883	0.49618	11.0327	1.83620	192.94100	137	93	44	65	66
39	Steven Jens	0.60294	0.50000	11.4574	1.90440	204.16100	136	82	54	66	66
40	Sagarin Elo	0.65693	0.51471	11.1509	1.10260	192.77100	137	90	47	70	66
41	Logistic Regression	0.55474	0.49624	11.6474	0.32510	204.81300	137	76	61	66	67
42	Jim Armstrong	0.62774	0.50000	11.5087	1.79950	207.60700	137	86	51	67	67
43	Dokter Entropy	0.66423	0.50370	11.0727	1.71170	197.23800	137	91	46	68	67
44	Reistertown Index	0.63504	0.48855	11.8175	0.53280	215.26100	137	87	50	64	67
45	Beck Elo	0.59124	0.50735	11.3934	0.88800	205.72800	137	81	56	69	67
46	Scoring Effeciency	0.62774	0.50000	11.4462	1.48400	211.98900	137	86	51	68	68
47	Lee Burdorf	0.59124	0.48872	12.0460	1.43870	236.29200	137	81	56	65	68
48	Pigskin Index	0.62044	0.46512	11.3431	1.67980	202.88800	137	85	52	60	69
49	Nationalsportsrankings	0.59524	0.44800	11.6327	1.38600	214.26100	126	75	51	56	69
50	David and Pasteur	0.63504	0.49265	11.4096	1.67200	208.84400	137	87	50	67	69
51	Kasulis Enhanced Spread	0.64234	0.49265	11.4537	-0.16180	205.40200	137	88	49	67	69
52	Michael Robert Ratings	0.67153	0.49265	11.1461	0.75330	205.34700	137	92	45	67	69
53	Nutshell Girl	0.65693	0.48529	11.2842	1.51510	199.61700	137	90	47	66	70
54	What If Sports	0.60584	0.45455	12.2175	-0.80440	225.29500	137	83	54	60	72
55	Stat Fox	0.64234	0.43411	10.9855	1.74470	193.49000	137	88	49	56	73
56	Sonny Moore	0.61314	0.46324	11.3868	0.91180	205.51300	137	84	53	63	73
57	RP Excel	0.56934	0.45926	12.8248	1.00000	264.23400	137	78	59	62	73
58	Dunkel Index	0.59854	0.44853	11.6342	0.53880	212.01100	137	82	55	61	75
59	LS - w/ team HFA	0.56934	0.43609	12.6504	-0.09380	242.86500	137	78	59	58	75
60	YourLinx	0.62774	0.44853	11.8291	1.39090	213.99800	137	86	51	61	75
61	CPA Retro Rankings	0.64234	0.44118	11.6105	-0.04230	210.57200	137	88	49	60	76
62	NutShell Sports	0.58394	0.42222	12.1426	1.44050	227.17200	137	80	57	57	78
63	JFM Power Ratings	0.64964	0.42647	11.2924	1.52580	199.57200	137	89	48	58	78
64	Nutshell Combo	0.62774	0.42647	11.5537	1.40820	204.99700	137	86	51	58	78
65	Least Abs. Val Reg	0.64234	0.41912	12.1285	-0.19340	228.88800	137	88	49	57	79

pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses