Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)
2022 Season Totals
Through 2023-02-13
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Line (Midweek) | 0.63830 | | 8.8169 | -0.53520 | 132.43700 | 284 | 180 | 102 | | |
2 | TuringFantasy | 0.53333 | 0.40000 | 9.5625 | 2.81250 | 139.06800 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
3 | Line (updated) | 0.65248 | 0.58278 | 8.7254 | -0.41900 | 130.37800 | 284 | 184 | 98 | 88 | 63 |
4 | Bihl Rankings | 0.63522 | 0.53503 | 9.4365 | -1.80290 | 148.95200 | 160 | 101 | 58 | 84 | 73 |
5 | Kasulis Enhanced Spread | 0.55333 | 0.46479 | 9.5252 | 0.33580 | 148.48000 | 151 | 83 | 67 | 66 | 76 |
6 | Kasulis ESP2 | 0.56000 | 0.45324 | 9.1570 | -0.01250 | 136.79100 | 151 | 84 | 66 | 63 | 76 |
7 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.65248 | 0.52907 | 8.7782 | -0.30990 | 131.29000 | 284 | 184 | 98 | 91 | 81 |
8 | Brent Craig | 0.58642 | 0.44872 | 9.5625 | 0.31670 | 150.74500 | 163 | 95 | 67 | 70 | 86 |
9 | John Coffey | 0.66995 | 0.51010 | 9.2009 | 0.08390 | 142.17100 | 204 | 136 | 67 | 101 | 97 |
10 | FF-Winners | 0.68085 | 0.54867 | 8.7570 | -0.24300 | 133.52400 | 284 | 192 | 90 | 124 | 102 |
11 | Dan Hanson | 0.60851 | 0.51101 | 9.5900 | 0.75180 | 156.51200 | 236 | 143 | 92 | 116 | 111 |
12 | Roger Johnson | 0.62128 | 0.50661 | 10.1212 | -0.67770 | 178.98000 | 236 | 146 | 89 | 115 | 112 |
13 | Line (opening) | 0.62411 | 0.47465 | 8.9947 | -0.37150 | 134.93300 | 284 | 176 | 106 | 103 | 114 |
14 | Roundtable | 0.61570 | 0.49123 | 10.2016 | 1.00020 | 168.06500 | 243 | 149 | 93 | 112 | 116 |
15 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.61702 | 0.55849 | 9.0564 | 0.68010 | 139.89000 | 284 | 174 | 108 | 148 | 117 |
16 | Dwiggins | 0.60284 | 0.52727 | 10.0419 | 1.43850 | 163.13200 | 284 | 170 | 112 | 145 | 130 |
17 | Game Time Decision | 0.62057 | 0.50382 | 9.1004 | 1.02680 | 137.27700 | 284 | 175 | 107 | 132 | 130 |
18 | Donchess Inference | 0.64894 | 0.51481 | 9.1173 | 0.36440 | 141.01400 | 284 | 183 | 99 | 139 | 131 |
19 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.61348 | 0.50000 | 9.1470 | -1.36880 | 142.76100 | 284 | 173 | 109 | 131 | 131 |
20 | Logistic Regression | 0.59220 | 0.51460 | 10.0968 | -1.65110 | 170.14300 | 284 | 167 | 115 | 141 | 133 |
21 | Least Abs. Val Reg | 0.60638 | 0.50735 | 9.8206 | -0.55910 | 164.99500 | 284 | 171 | 111 | 138 | 134 |
22 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.60993 | 0.49049 | 9.2290 | -0.05200 | 141.35300 | 284 | 172 | 110 | 129 | 134 |
23 | Laffaye RWP | 0.61364 | 0.47471 | 10.3767 | 0.76630 | 176.03000 | 266 | 162 | 102 | 122 | 135 |
24 | RP Excel | 0.56631 | 0.45600 | 10.1103 | -0.80070 | 169.38900 | 281 | 158 | 121 | 114 | 136 |
25 | Stat Fox | 0.63830 | 0.47893 | 9.5635 | 1.02150 | 146.86200 | 284 | 180 | 102 | 125 | 136 |
26 | ESPN FPI | 0.63121 | 0.50182 | 9.3030 | -0.10290 | 145.28300 | 284 | 178 | 104 | 138 | 137 |
27 | Odds Shark | 0.59786 | 0.49265 | 10.2188 | 3.93260 | 165.33500 | 283 | 168 | 113 | 134 | 138 |
28 | LS - w/ team HFA | 0.60638 | 0.49084 | 10.3664 | -0.63170 | 177.59700 | 284 | 171 | 111 | 134 | 139 |
29 | RP Excel 2 | 0.60932 | 0.47940 | 10.1317 | -0.39500 | 162.62900 | 281 | 170 | 109 | 128 | 139 |
30 | Pigskin Index | 0.63830 | 0.46743 | 9.1761 | 1.11300 | 137.57800 | 284 | 180 | 102 | 122 | 139 |
31 | Turnover Adj. regressio | 0.63475 | 0.48718 | 9.4473 | -0.75280 | 150.08200 | 284 | 179 | 103 | 133 | 140 |
32 | Beck Elo | 0.60638 | 0.49091 | 9.5295 | 1.21420 | 148.61900 | 284 | 171 | 111 | 135 | 140 |
33 | Scoring Effeciency | 0.64539 | 0.49091 | 9.1124 | 0.77850 | 141.63700 | 284 | 182 | 100 | 135 | 140 |
34 | Talisman Red | 0.61348 | 0.48540 | 9.5281 | 0.47660 | 147.59400 | 284 | 173 | 109 | 133 | 141 |
35 | System Average | 0.62766 | 0.48727 | 9.1187 | 0.16640 | 139.30100 | 284 | 177 | 105 | 134 | 141 |
36 | System Median | 0.62766 | 0.47015 | 9.0733 | 0.15520 | 139.04900 | 284 | 177 | 105 | 126 | 142 |
37 | Sagarin Rating | 0.66312 | 0.48364 | 9.0875 | -0.07410 | 143.89900 | 284 | 187 | 95 | 133 | 142 |
38 | Sagarin Points | 0.67730 | 0.48000 | 9.1664 | -0.03650 | 144.92600 | 284 | 191 | 91 | 132 | 143 |
39 | TeamRankings.com | 0.64539 | 0.47619 | 9.1469 | -0.34470 | 141.34500 | 284 | 182 | 100 | 130 | 143 |
40 | Sagarin Recent | 0.65248 | 0.48000 | 9.0494 | -0.23910 | 143.27800 | 284 | 184 | 98 | 132 | 143 |
41 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.63475 | 0.48000 | 9.3357 | -0.06260 | 148.65600 | 284 | 179 | 103 | 132 | 143 |
42 | Dokter Entropy | 0.62766 | 0.47810 | 9.1903 | 0.13150 | 140.77800 | 284 | 177 | 105 | 131 | 143 |
43 | Points Per Game | 0.60638 | 0.47445 | 9.7438 | -0.22120 | 155.94900 | 284 | 171 | 111 | 130 | 144 |
44 | Massey Ratings | 0.62766 | 0.47273 | 9.2178 | -0.65670 | 141.53700 | 284 | 177 | 105 | 130 | 145 |
45 | Least Squares | 0.63121 | 0.46886 | 9.6242 | -0.39130 | 155.79400 | 284 | 178 | 104 | 128 | 145 |
46 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.62057 | 0.46545 | 9.5989 | -0.78360 | 150.05800 | 284 | 175 | 107 | 128 | 147 |
47 | Dunkel Index | 0.60284 | 0.46182 | 9.7859 | -1.79280 | 155.74400 | 284 | 170 | 112 | 127 | 148 |
48 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.62057 | 0.45018 | 9.6884 | 0.72780 | 153.12900 | 284 | 175 | 107 | 122 | 149 |
49 | Sonny Moore | 0.63121 | 0.45455 | 9.3860 | -0.03330 | 145.21000 | 284 | 178 | 104 | 125 | 150 |
50 | Pythagorean Ratings | 0.63475 | 0.45091 | 9.5048 | 0.88520 | 149.03900 | 284 | 179 | 103 | 124 | 151 |
51 | Stephen Kerns | 0.57801 | 0.44689 | 10.0097 | -0.09660 | 161.93400 | 284 | 163 | 119 | 122 | 151 |
52 | Pi-Rate Mean | 0.62766 | 0.44689 | 9.5159 | 0.69050 | 148.23700 | 284 | 177 | 105 | 122 | 151 |
53 | Pi-Rate Bias | 0.61348 | 0.44322 | 9.6007 | 0.69580 | 149.87500 | 284 | 173 | 109 | 121 | 152 |
54 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.62766 | 0.44727 | 9.9509 | 0.12240 | 158.03100 | 284 | 177 | 105 | 123 | 152 |
55 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.62766 | 0.44000 | 9.7229 | 0.23770 | 155.43300 | 284 | 177 | 105 | 121 | 154 |
56 | Lou St. John | 0.63830 | 0.43636 | 9.2202 | -0.26830 | 140.53400 | 284 | 180 | 102 | 120 | 155 |
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread = percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses