Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-12-06
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Line (Midweek)0.6114011.12111.01800199.9570019411875
2Line (updated)0.590670.5806511.14431.11340199.81100194114795439
3Computer Adjusted Line0.590670.5405411.13661.15720199.40700194114796051
4Bihl Rankings0.555560.4800012.84600.31900265.7850010055444852
5Roger Johnson0.566370.4736812.6632-0.10790256.2220011464495460
6John Coffey0.530970.4473712.73851.62680256.2780011460535163
7Line (opening)0.564770.5490211.19851.19330202.39600194109848469
8RP Excel0.661020.5823510.9213-0.85390200.40000178117609971
9FF-Winners0.569950.5256411.29381.26290205.30600194110838274
10Roundtable0.565220.4774212.91362.50630258.3310016291707481
11Dan Hanson0.577640.4906812.39770.49690236.1250016293687982
12RP Excel 20.610170.5202312.9494-0.65730252.99200178108699083
13Pi-Rate Ratings0.580310.5468811.39392.44230210.648001941128110587
14Talisman Red0.626940.5416711.5810-0.99730213.925001941217210488
15TuringFantasy0.552080.5240611.8187-0.05700229.65300193106869889
16Lou St. John0.559590.5388611.64240.13960218.418001941088510489
17Game Time Decision0.580310.4887611.48982.51090211.54100194112818791
18Cleanup Hitter0.544040.4973011.86612.29410222.83200194105889293
19Kasulis ESP20.637310.5130911.10360.50980200.55700194123709893
20Donchess Inference0.616580.4945711.29901.64020203.67100194119749193
21Stat Fox0.595850.5000011.88672.53660222.77700194115789494
22PerformanZ Ratings0.632120.5129511.5443-0.29850220.68900194122719994
23ARGH Power Ratings0.621760.4918911.56190.48200212.71200194120739194
24Least Abs. Val Reg0.544040.5026512.3732-0.47970239.94400194105889594
25TeamRankings.com0.590670.5000011.32841.66750204.65900194114799494
26Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.616580.5000011.31600.02220208.63600194119749595
27Sagarin Points0.569950.5077711.50531.60830207.54400194110839895
28Dunkel Index0.621470.4576311.69092.15040215.57000178110678196
29Least Squares0.569950.4947412.0371-0.20980231.28600194110839496
30Pi-Rate Bias0.590670.4974111.53862.45420215.12400194114799697
31Pigskin Index0.585490.4728311.55662.72200211.96700194113808797
32Pi-Rate Mean0.595850.4974111.44122.47530211.15900194115789697
33Dokter Entropy0.606220.4869111.17471.38470203.30900194117769398
34Sonny Moore0.621760.4922311.57551.32450214.17100194120739598
35LS - w/ team HFA0.544040.4922313.2603-0.40810284.08400194105889598
36Sagarin Rating0.564770.4922311.75511.69580213.97600194109849598
37Versus Sports Simulator0.585490.4843812.55822.21530243.51100194113809399
38Massey Ratings0.595850.4870511.4053-0.16960210.39600194115789499
39Ashby AccuRatings0.585490.4594611.57231.65540207.624001941138085100
40Points Per Game0.601040.4818712.09171.01070233.114001941167793100
41Logistic Regression0.559590.4652412.4924-0.20450248.173001941088587100
42Stephen Kerns0.554400.4818712.41012.42030235.157001941078693100
43System Median0.601040.4598911.42601.53210206.280001941167786101
44Scoring Effeciency0.595850.4766811.75282.32590215.397001941157892101
45ESPN FPI0.590670.4766811.29741.53550205.220001941147992101
46Pythagorean Ratings0.611400.4663211.83622.23430216.771001941187590103
47Daniel Curry Index0.611400.4611411.81662.28630219.141001941187589104
48Turnover Adj. regressio0.575130.4583312.32550.36910237.203001941118288104
49Odds Shark0.575130.4555013.76916.46810297.242001941118287104
50Sagarin Golden Mean0.569950.4559611.76611.75780215.005001941108388105
51Beck Elo0.544040.4559612.50053.59580243.226001941058888105
52System Average0.606220.4456011.44251.54310207.429001941177686107
53Dwiggins0.569950.4270813.09024.26860252.468001941108382110
54Laffaye RWP0.554400.4196912.98613.20630257.345001941078681112
55Sagarin Recent0.585490.4196912.14661.78610227.719001941138081112
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses