Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2020 Last Week

Through 2021-02-07
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1RP Excel 20.750001.000006.0000-5.0000038.2500043140
2Roundtable0.666670.333338.16677.83330112.2730064224
3Dwiggins0.615380.615388.44623.26150108.81400138585
4Sportsformulator0.666670.500008.50004.50000106.64600128455
5Least Abs. Val Reg0.692310.538468.6577-1.54080117.56800139476
6Least Squares0.692310.615388.6831-1.30460119.65200139485
7Dokter Entropy0.692310.615388.69230.39080111.95600139485
8Sagarin Rating0.692310.692318.7800-1.38770119.96100139494
9Sagarin Points0.615380.666678.8123-1.63690124.06300138584
10Sagarin Golden Mean0.692310.692318.8846-1.22460124.03100139494
11Pi-Rate Ratings0.615380.538468.8846-0.33080112.91900138576
12Cleanup Hitter0.615380.692318.8854-0.26850102.72100138594
13Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.615380.692318.8923-0.55380119.41500138594
14Stephen Kerns0.923080.538468.95380.47690110.906001312176
15Pi-Rate Mean0.692310.615388.9538-0.23080114.67900139485
16Bihl Rankings0.692310.615388.9577-0.47460118.55200139485
17Pi-Rate Bias0.692310.666678.9692-0.35380114.37000139484
18System Average0.692310.692318.97380.14460116.90000139494
19Stat Fox0.615380.666679.00001.15380123.66700138584
20System Median0.692310.692319.02000.02000119.97000139494
21ProComputerGambler0.615380.692319.03541.13540120.24600138594
22Versus Sports Simulator0.615380.615389.04851.04850118.54300138585
23TeamRankings.com0.615380.615389.07690.06150125.73700138585
24Kasulis ESP20.538460.692319.1000-0.03850121.27900137694
25Sagarin Recent0.615380.615389.1015-1.10460116.89500138585
26Pigskin Index0.615380.636369.15380.84620118.17600138574
27Talisman Red0.692310.615389.1785-1.15850124.44600139485
28Massey Ratings0.615380.692319.1892-1.54770127.09700138594
29Beck Elo0.615380.538469.22231.48540115.08200138576
30Points Per Game0.615380.692319.22460.32920130.57600138594
31Computer Adjusted Line0.615380.750009.23080.38460126.02700138562
32Turnover Adj. regressio0.692310.538469.2492-1.28000123.63600139476
33ESPN FPI0.538460.538469.26850.19460126.33200137676
34Line (updated)0.615380.800009.34620.34620129.70200138541
35Sonny Moore0.615380.615389.3654-0.26230135.96400138585
36Ashby AccuRatings0.615380.583339.3838-0.30690136.26700138575
37ThePowerRank.com0.615380.615389.3846-0.07690130.74400138585
38Line (opening)0.615380.555569.38460.53850130.51600138554
39Line (Midweek)0.615389.42310.50000131.269001385
40John Coffey0.692310.384629.43311.21770123.33500139458
41Daniel Curry Index0.692310.615389.45081.31690122.71800139485
42PerformanZ Ratings0.769230.538469.4569-2.85540134.491001310376
43Lou St. John0.615380.461549.4669-0.56690137.45800138567
44Logistic Regression0.615380.615389.4885-0.76850133.31300138585
45Donchess Inference0.615380.615389.55380.40000136.84500138585
46ARGH Power Ratings0.615380.500009.61540.23080130.22700138555
47Steven Jens0.692310.461549.79922.53460127.16800139467
48Pythagorean Ratings0.692310.461549.80380.70850132.83800139467
49Scoring Effeciency0.692310.461549.91620.55620131.83300139467
50Covers.com0.538460.538469.92311.38460133.85300137676
51LS - w/ team HFA0.615380.615389.9977-1.14080175.41900138585
52FF-Winners0.538460.3636410.0000-0.15380149.53700137647
53Odds Shark0.769230.6153810.02314.66920139.305001310385
54Dan Hanson0.538460.6153810.3669-3.63460156.49800137685
55TuringFantasy0.615380.6153810.76921.07690156.06500138585
56Game Time Decision0.571430.7142911.0000-3.28570158.0290074352
57Dunkel Index0.615380.2307711.80083.06540203.595001385310
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses