Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Second Half Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
2Line (updated)0.7007310.8358-0.73360177.841001379641
3Computer Adjusted Line0.700730.4651210.8796-0.71900178.4690013796412023
4Line (opening)0.686130.4693910.9745-0.60220179.4590013794434652
5Kambour Rating0.671530.5147111.0061-0.81280185.2150013792457066
6Game Time Decision0.632080.5252511.02850.15110178.5850010667395247
7Hank Trexler0.649640.4961211.0365-0.89050184.2720013789486465
8CPA Retro Rankings0.678830.4926511.07070.44640191.5360013793446769
9System Average0.642340.5367611.0929-0.67950183.1260013788497363
10Ed Bemiss0.676920.5238111.0984-0.87220190.4980013088426660
11CPA Rankings0.656930.5220611.10010.41070186.8820013790477165
12Steven Jens0.627740.5075811.1037-0.77660185.4660013786516765
13TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
14Sourjax0.649640.5037011.10720.38420191.9750013789486867
15Roger Johnson0.649640.5441211.1088-1.33210186.6690013789487462
16JFM Power Ratings0.642340.5514711.1091-0.19400184.3940013788497561
17Pigskin Index0.642340.5454511.11690.00770186.0060013788496655
18System Median0.642340.5037011.1185-0.64190185.0070013788496867
19LS - w/ team HFA0.635040.5661811.1518-1.71530209.4400013787507759
20Michael Robert Ratings0.656930.5147111.16260.04390191.4850013790477066
21NutShell Retro0.664230.5220611.1920-0.90940188.7690013791467165
22Pythagorean Ratings0.671530.5147111.2247-1.06580193.5890013792457066
23Dokter Entropy0.627740.4558811.2387-0.37680193.7140013786516274
24Jeff Self0.634780.4912311.2537-0.31040193.1860011573425658
25John Coffey0.642340.5000011.2587-0.53200190.8990013788496868
26Mike Greenfield0.649640.5147111.2591-1.85910191.9060013789487066
27Upset Report0.669420.4957311.2612-2.00660202.8740012181405859
28Ashby AccuRatings0.649640.4761911.26280.15360188.3850013789486066
29Sagarin0.664230.5185211.2663-1.02310192.0710013791467065
30Scoring Effeciency0.627740.5000011.2750-0.21070193.9470013786516868
31Bihl Rankings0.663370.5000011.29790.26430186.4740010167345050
32Sagarin Predictive0.642340.5333311.3155-1.02920194.3700013788497263
33NutShell Sports0.627740.4926511.3371-0.15140193.0050013786516769
34PerformanZ Ratings0.664230.5147111.3406-1.48230196.0850013791467066
35Brian Gabrielle0.651520.4758111.3411-0.10560191.0640013286465965
36Beck Elo0.656930.4485311.3983-1.04360194.8090013790476175
37Stat Fox0.656930.5360011.44520.20470194.6570013790476758
38Sonny Moore0.671530.4926511.4588-1.20660196.7170013792456769
39Least Squares0.649640.5073511.4682-1.53200194.5590013789486967
40Eric Hollobaugh0.678830.5073511.4691-0.13480198.5390013793446967
41Logistic Regression0.649640.5220611.4815-2.45570204.8290013789487165
42Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.642340.4586511.4912-1.43580195.7620013788496172
43Reistertown Index0.664230.4803111.5255-0.95620200.0590013791466166
44Jeff Imes0.649640.5147111.5583-0.06390204.9610013789487066
45Sagarin Elo0.649640.4485311.5644-0.99200200.8200013789486175
46ARGH Power Ratings0.644630.4910711.5702-1.25620197.2210012178435557
47Sport Trends0.664230.5000011.5919-2.64150211.8050013791466868
48Dwiggins0.676920.4728711.7077-0.42920207.7920013088426168
49Least Abs. Val Reg0.627740.5188011.7536-1.92310209.0140013786516964
50The Sports Report0.666670.4960011.7728-1.56130208.5240012684426263
51Dunkel Index0.598540.4963011.7773-0.13230203.9760013782556768
52Pigskin Herald0.654410.4850711.7956-1.24410201.4080013689476569
53Deslock Rankings0.670210.4623711.8131-0.41180209.475009463314350
54What If Sports0.650790.4720011.8233-0.30060204.5560012682445966
55Sports Report Pred0.690480.5120011.9143-1.52570235.4930012687396461
56Grid Iron Gold0.627120.4955812.0676-1.49980225.6040011874445657
57Tom Benson0.613140.4264712.15970.33110212.9830013784535878
58TSR Slots0.650790.5040012.1663-1.49720237.1480012682446362
59Lee Burdorf0.642340.5037012.2212-0.28250227.3510013788496867
60Sports Report Elo0.682540.4960012.2609-1.30500227.0320012686406263
61Stephen Kerns0.635040.4705912.3832-0.91750234.4810013787506472
62Covers.com0.496350.4338212.6215-1.09440245.7480013768695977
63Viacheslav0.428570.2142913.52295.17860227.371001468311
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses