Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2021 Season Totals

Through 2021-12-06
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1RP Excel0.661020.5823510.9213-0.85390200.40000178117609971
2Kasulis ESP20.637310.5130911.10360.50980200.55700194123709893
3Line (Midweek)0.6114011.12111.01800199.9570019411875
4Computer Adjusted Line0.590670.5405411.13661.15720199.40700194114796051
5Line (updated)0.590670.5806511.14431.11340199.81100194114795439
6Dokter Entropy0.606220.4869111.17471.38470203.30900194117769398
7Line (opening)0.564770.5490211.19851.19330202.39600194109848469
8FF-Winners0.569950.5256411.29381.26290205.30600194110838274
9ESPN FPI0.590670.4766811.29741.53550205.220001941147992101
10Donchess Inference0.616580.4945711.29901.64020203.67100194119749193
11Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.616580.5000011.31600.02220208.63600194119749595
12TeamRankings.com0.590670.5000011.32841.66750204.65900194114799494
13Pi-Rate Ratings0.580310.5468811.39392.44230210.648001941128110587
14Massey Ratings0.595850.4870511.4053-0.16960210.39600194115789499
15System Median0.601040.4598911.42601.53210206.280001941167786101
16Pi-Rate Mean0.595850.4974111.44122.47530211.15900194115789697
17System Average0.606220.4456011.44251.54310207.429001941177686107
18Game Time Decision0.580310.4887611.48982.51090211.54100194112818791
19Sagarin Points0.569950.5077711.50531.60830207.54400194110839895
20Pi-Rate Bias0.590670.4974111.53862.45420215.12400194114799697
21PerformanZ Ratings0.632120.5129511.5443-0.29850220.68900194122719994
22Pigskin Index0.585490.4728311.55662.72200211.96700194113808797
23ARGH Power Ratings0.621760.4918911.56190.48200212.71200194120739194
24Ashby AccuRatings0.585490.4594611.57231.65540207.624001941138085100
25Sonny Moore0.621760.4922311.57551.32450214.17100194120739598
26Talisman Red0.626940.5416711.5810-0.99730213.925001941217210488
27Lou St. John0.559590.5388611.64240.13960218.418001941088510489
28Dunkel Index0.621470.4576311.69092.15040215.57000178110678196
29Scoring Effeciency0.595850.4766811.75282.32590215.397001941157892101
30Sagarin Rating0.564770.4922311.75511.69580213.97600194109849598
31Sagarin Golden Mean0.569950.4559611.76611.75780215.005001941108388105
32Daniel Curry Index0.611400.4611411.81662.28630219.141001941187589104
33TuringFantasy0.552080.5240611.8187-0.05700229.65300193106869889
34Pythagorean Ratings0.611400.4663211.83622.23430216.771001941187590103
35Cleanup Hitter0.544040.4973011.86612.29410222.83200194105889293
36Stat Fox0.595850.5000011.88672.53660222.77700194115789494
37Least Squares0.569950.4947412.0371-0.20980231.28600194110839496
38Points Per Game0.601040.4818712.09171.01070233.114001941167793100
39Sagarin Recent0.585490.4196912.14661.78610227.719001941138081112
40Turnover Adj. regressio0.575130.4583312.32550.36910237.203001941118288104
41Least Abs. Val Reg0.544040.5026512.3732-0.47970239.94400194105889594
42Dan Hanson0.577640.4906812.39770.49690236.1250016293687982
43Stephen Kerns0.554400.4818712.41012.42030235.157001941078693100
44Logistic Regression0.559590.4652412.4924-0.20450248.173001941088587100
45Beck Elo0.544040.4559612.50053.59580243.226001941058888105
46Versus Sports Simulator0.585490.4843812.55822.21530243.51100194113809399
47Roger Johnson0.566370.4736812.6632-0.10790256.2220011464495460
48John Coffey0.530970.4473712.73851.62680256.2780011460535163
49Bihl Rankings0.555560.4800012.84600.31900265.7850010055444852
50Roundtable0.565220.4774212.91362.50630258.3310016291707481
51RP Excel 20.610170.5202312.9494-0.65730252.99200178108699083
52Laffaye RWP0.554400.4196912.98613.20630257.345001941078681112
53Dwiggins0.569950.4270813.09024.26860252.468001941108382110
54LS - w/ team HFA0.544040.4922313.2603-0.40810284.08400194105889598
55Odds Shark0.575130.4555013.76916.46810297.242001941118287104
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses