Computer Rating System Prediction Results for Pro football (NFL)

2007 Season Totals

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Ed Bemiss0.680000.5578910.6620-0.74490182.358002001366410684
2Cover810.720000.5826110.6640-0.91840171.2630012590356748
3Computer Adjusted Line0.681650.5952410.6966-0.39700178.31200267182855034
4Bihl Rankings0.690320.5657910.69990.44190176.43200155107488666
5Line (updated)0.6853910.7135-0.39140178.8580026718384
6System Average0.651690.5637110.7819-0.43180180.9940026717493146113
7Sagarin0.666670.5697710.7854-0.11250183.9790026717889147111
8Sagarin Predictive0.651690.5852710.7894-0.11970183.6860026717493151107
9John Coffey0.673170.5049510.8166-0.32300187.6110020513867102100
10System Median0.655430.5607810.8281-0.36570182.4750026717592143112
11Kambour Rating0.651690.5405410.8506-0.50390183.4020026717493140119
12Hank Trexler0.666670.5000010.8652-0.67790185.2230026717889125125
13Line (opening)0.674160.4918910.8727-0.21720182.16100267180879194
14Brian Gabrielle0.656490.5423710.89120.26950184.8350026217290128108
15Mike Greenfield0.697560.5445510.9020-1.44340185.961002051436211092
16CPA Retro Rankings0.670410.5019310.9536-0.02750191.8530026717988130129
17Roger Johnson0.684930.5601910.9551-0.97370190.987002191506912195
18CPA Rankings0.666670.5251010.9995-0.02460187.9480026717889136123
19Ashby AccuRatings0.625470.4917411.00400.37540186.05100267167100119123
20Pigskin Index0.636700.5400811.00770.28150188.5160026717097128109
21JFM Power Ratings0.636700.5559811.01380.05710186.9980026717097144115
22Viacheslav0.638890.4890511.01490.57120187.5510014492526770
23ARGH Power Ratings0.685260.5357111.0219-0.76290190.0730025117279120104
24Sagarin Elo0.659180.5444011.0281-0.11830191.4130026717691141118
25Eric Hollobaugh0.707320.5445511.0438-0.10860194.177002051456011092
26Beck Elo0.670410.5482611.0452-0.67370188.8730026717988142117
27Game Time Decision0.641670.5486711.0752-0.45800182.1850012077436251
28Dokter Entropy0.617980.4787611.07820.20620191.38700267165102124135
29Kasulis Enhanced Spread0.647940.5039111.0881-0.89690190.9630026717394129127
30Steven Jens0.662920.5375511.0963-1.06020189.9930026717790136117
31TheSportsCruncher0.683820.5267211.1056-0.41400182.3840013693436962
32Sonny Moore0.689140.5135111.1158-0.92680193.5100026718483133126
33Michael Robert Ratings0.642550.5087011.11920.16680193.4300023515184117113
34NutShell Sports0.640450.5135111.12580.04860192.4550026717196133126
35Sourjax0.657530.5094311.18040.57140196.6430021914475108104
36NutShell Retro0.645420.5020411.1854-0.76410194.7500025116289123122
37PerformanZ Ratings0.654140.5348811.2020-1.39970193.5690026617492138120
38Dwiggins0.684620.5542211.20380.30930197.2210026017882138111
39Stat Fox0.640450.5020611.21740.35630192.7490026717196122121
40Jeff Self0.635000.5329911.3050-0.46960206.470002001277310592
41Reistertown Index0.662920.4916711.3071-0.88760194.3230026717790118122
42Scoring Effeciency0.635340.5000011.3108-0.23240199.1390026616997129129
43Dunkel Index0.603000.5387611.34520.26120194.29300267161106139119
44Pigskin Herald0.672930.5177911.3695-0.60640199.5790026617987131122
45Jeff Imes0.659180.5675711.37510.96980203.3480026717691147112
46Pythagorean Ratings0.670410.5173711.4344-1.36430206.8420026717988134125
47Upset Report0.657370.4895411.4382-2.43920208.4230025116586117122
48Lee Burdorf0.674160.5426411.60480.20040211.5370026718087140118
49Sport Trends0.659180.5000011.6221-1.38010213.0070026717691129129
50Tom Benson0.599250.4845011.6842-0.35010204.29300267160107125133
51Least Squares0.655430.5232611.7110-1.52690209.2330026717592135123
52Logistic Regression0.671230.5324111.7291-2.47790228.2060021914772115101
53Covers.com0.561800.4710411.9046-0.85640224.51700267150117122137
54Deslock Rankings0.665180.5162811.9157-0.94660215.8560022414975111104
55Stephen Kerns0.632960.5096511.9218-0.60780225.1640026716998132127
56Sports Report Elo0.656250.5483911.9478-1.61560227.0230025616888136112
57What If Sports0.636720.4879011.97080.31970221.6880025616393121127
58Grid Iron Gold0.600810.4786312.0141-1.52170227.7820024814999112122
59Least Abs. Val Reg0.610490.5215712.2046-1.65480227.98500267163104133122
60LS - w/ team HFA0.614230.5348812.2272-1.47210243.73700267164103138120
61The Sports Report0.656250.5241912.3973-1.57610236.4940025616888130118
62Sports Report Pred0.609380.4817814.7464-2.14390369.30500256156100119128
63TSR Slots0.589840.4898814.7684-2.00540363.18000256151105121126
pct correct = percent straight up picking winners
against spread =  percent against the midweek line
absolute error = average(prediction - actual result)
bias = absolute value(prediction - actual result)
mean square error = absolute error squared
games collected
suw = straight up wins
sul = straight up losses
atsw = against the spread wins
atsl = against the spread losses