Welcome to the 14th annual NFL Prediction Tracker Awards. The purpose of these awards is
to help raise the publicity for those systems that have been superior in various qualities of
interest. Most awards will be based entirely on the numbers I've monitored with my prediction
tracker web pages. In 2013 I tracked 71 rating/pedictions systems in he NFL for all or part of
the season. This was down 2 from the prior season.  2013 is gong to go down as one of the best
seasons ever for NFL rating systems with several new all time records being set.



BEST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)


Winner: Ed Bemiss

  Ed Bemiss led the full season in straight up wins this season with a record of
187-79, 70.301%.  This was a pretty good mark.  Seven games better than the closest
competitor, the opening line and Game Time Decision.  Bemiss also led in 2011 as
Nationalsportsranking.com.  So winning two of the last three years is a nice accomplishment.
The updated line finished in 21st place for the second season in a row.  The opening line
did better than the midweek line which did  better than the updated line.  The 2013 sets
a lot of new all time records, but for straight up wins it was really close to the record
of 725 set in 2005.



Winner 2013: Ed Bemiss
Winner 2012: Sagarin Pure Points (predictive)
Winner 2011: Nationalsportsranking.com
Winner 2010: LVSC opening line
Winner 2009: JFM Power Ratings, Sportrends
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Sonny Moore
Winner 2006: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (record 72.28%)
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Herman Matthews
Winner 2001: JFM Power Ratings, ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2000: CPA Rankings
Winner 1999: Kenneth Massey Ratings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)

Winner:  Lou St. John

 Some consider the true measure of a ranking system to be its record against the Vegas line.
Although that record for every single game is probably not the best measurement but that is
what I have.
 Lou St. John led the way with a ATS record of 151-103, 59.449%. This sets a new record in this
category.  I did make a change in ATS recording this season. In the past I compared the predictions
to the updated line.  This season I switched to use line taken midweek.  So you would tend to expect
the numbers would be better this year.  But only St. John and RP Excel did better than the previous
record.  In the long run it remains to be seen how much better the numbers will be versus the midweek line.
 It was a rather easy year to beat the spread.  In all 54 systems did better than 50%.  Interestingly
the only bad performance was by the updated line at only 44.7%.

Winner 2013: Lou St. John  (record 59.449%)
Winner 2012: Least squares regression
Winner 2011: Pi-Rate Ratings
Winner 2010: Sagarin Predictor
Winner 2009: CPA Rankings.
Winner 2008: Nutshell Retro, Entropy System
Winner 2007: Sagarin Predictive
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle (record against updated line 59.0%)
Winner 2005: Least squares with team HFA
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: CPA Retro Rankings
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: Yourlinx
Winner 1999: PerformanZ Ratings





  SMALLEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (Entire Season) 

Winner: Ed Bemiss

  Deviation from the game score is the difference between the game prediction
and the actual result.  A value of zero would mean the score difference is predicted
exactly.  One property of a good system would be to minimize the system's average
game deviation.
  This season Ed Bemiss broke an 8 year old record by having a mean error of 9.7236.
The old record of 9.9513 was set by the line in 2005.  But it was clearly a very good
year as 19 systems beat the prior record.  The opening line was second place.
The numbers were a full point better than last season.


Winner 2013: Ed Bemiss (record 9.7236)
Winner 2012: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2011: Dokter's Entropy System
Winner 2010: LVSC Opening line
Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2004: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2000: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 1999: Vegas Line (updated)




 SMALLEST BIAS (Entire Season)  


Winner: Game Time Decision

  Bias is a little different from deviation.  Deviation measures the
distance between a prediction and the actual result.  Bias combines
distance and location of the prediction.   Bias measures whether the
predictions are too high or too low.  So if a system has an
average bias of +0.25 that means that on average the system
gave 0.25 points too many to the home team.
  The biases tended toward being negative this year, with a typical value around -0.6.
Game Time Decision had the smallest bias at  -0.01650



Winner 2012: PerformanZ Ratings
Winner 2011; Lee Burdorf
Winner 2010: Stephen Kerns
Winner 2009; System Median
Winner 2008: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2007: CPA Rankings
Winner 2006: Tom Benson
Winner 2005: Sagarin Elo (record 0.001)
Winner 2004: System Average
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: Sagarin Pure Points
Winner 2001: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2000: Pigskin Index
Winner 1999: Flyman Ratings




 MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR (Entire Season)


Winner: Lou St. John

 This award is based on mean square error. Mean square error takes
into account both deviation and bias and is a commonly used measure
of evaluating estimators.
  I've always thought this should be the case theoretically.  The system that is
the most accurate should also be good against the line.  This year Lou St. John
wins both of these categories.  St. John had an average mean square error of 157.3140.
As with absolute error this is a new all time record for lowest mean square error.
The previous record was 166.808 set by the line in 2004.  This season 29 systems did better
than that previous record.  How good was this season?  Last year's winner would have
come in 66th place this season.  Six full time systems did better than the line this year.


Winner 2013: Lou St. John (record 157.3140)
Winner 2012: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2011: Dokter Entropy System
Winner 2010: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2006: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2004: Vegas Line (updated) (record 166.808)
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (opening)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line
Winner 2000: Pigskin Index




            SECOND HALF AWARDS 


Some systems donít begin publishing rankings until every team has played a couple of games, while
the season-long systems often rely on preset starting values in the early part of the season. For
those reasons, I like to look at the results over the second half of the season when these systems
have had time to become 'burned in' to  the season's data. Second half data consists of all games
from week 10 through the Super Bowl.



  BEST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half)



Winner: Ed Bemiss

  Ed Bemiss was an easy winner for the full season but for the second half he led by
only one game over Ironrank and 2 games over Stat Fox.  Bemiss' record over the second
half was  96-37, 72.18%.  This was a good number, only two games off the all time record.
The updated line finished in 37th place, so plenty of systems managed to beat that.


Winner 2013: Ed Bemiss
Winner 2012: Sonny Moore, Kasulis Enhanced Spread
Winner 2011: Turnover adjusted least squares
Winner 2010: LVSC opening line
Winner 2009: The Vegas line, Computer adjusted line, Ashby AccuRatings, StatFox, Upset Report, CPA Rankings
Winner 2008: Nutshell Girl
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line, Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated), Nutshell Sports (record 100-37, 72.99%)
Winner 2004: Pigskin Index
Winner 2003: JFM Power Ratings, Kasulis Enhanced Spread, Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Least Absolute Value Regression, JFM Power Ratings, CPA Rankings
Winner 2001: Pythagorean Ratings, Elo Ratings, Ken Massey Ratings
Winner 2000: PerformanZ Ratings, Scoring Effeciency
Winner 1999: Ken Massey, Ed Kambor, Pythagorean Ratings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Second Half)

Winner:  Sonshine Forecast

  Sunshine Forecast had the best against the spread record in the second half, 81-52, 63.551%.
Ironrank and Lou St. John were both just fractions of a percent behind.  This sets a new
second half ATS record.  But again, it remains to be seen how much the numbers will change
now that I have switched to using the midweek line as the line of record. Ten systems did
better than the old record of 60%. The numbers were quite good overall with only 10 systems
finishing below 50%, and only 5 below 49%.


Winner 2013: Sonshine forecast (record 68-39, 63.551%)
Winner 2012: Sagarin Predictor, Sagarin Overall
Winner 2011: Kambour Ratings
Winner 2010: Sagarin Predictor, Edward Kambour
Winner 2009: Grid Iron Gold
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2006: CPA Rankings
Winner 2005: Tom Benson
Winner 2004: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2003: Logistic Regression, Viacheslav Ugolnikov
Winner 2002: Least Absolute Value Regression (record against updated line 78-52, 60.0%)
Winner 2001: Stat Fox
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings
Winner 1999: Least squares using team specific home field advantages





  SMALLEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (Second Half)


Winner:  Ironrank.com

 Ironrank.com had the lowest mean error in the second half, 9.7386.  This shaves
0.21 points off the all time rcord set by the line back in 2005.  In all ten systems
did better than the previous record.  Ironrank was a new comer that joined mid-season
and quickly found themselves near the top in every category.  The line has not won
the category for four seasons now, and was only 19th place this season.


Winner 2013: Ironrank.com (record  9.7386)
Winner 2012: Lou St. John
Winner 2011: Turnover adjusted least squares
Winner 2010: Massey Ratings
Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: The Entropy System
Winner 2007: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: Jeff Self
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated) (record 9.9489)
Winner 2004: Least Squares Regression
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlays.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings




  SMALLEST BIAS (Second Half)    


Winner: Covers.com

  Covers.com had the lowest average bias over the second half with a value of
-0.0540.  The second half numbers definitely skewed towards being negative. in the -0.50
to -0.60 range


Winner 2013: Covers.com
Winner 2012: Nutshell Sports
Winner 2011: Lee Burdorf
Winner 2010: CPA Retro Rankings
Winner 2009; Game Time Decision
Winner 2008: CPA Rankings
Winner 2007: Pigskin Index (record 0.0077)
Winner 2006: CPA Retro Rankings
Winner 2005: Kasulis Enhanced Spread
Winner 2004: Tom Benson Gridmarks
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: StatFox.com
Winner 2001: Monte Carlo Markov Chain
Winner 2000: Flyman Performance Ratings
Winner 1999: Flyman Performance Ratings




  MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR (Second Half)


Winner: Steven Jens

  Steven Jens wins the second half by setting a new second half mean square error record of
158.085 points.  The is almost 8 points lower than the previous record, the oldest record on
the books, set back in year one by pythagorean ratings.  17 systems did better this season
than that old record.   Sonshine prediction was only half a point behind Jens.


Winner 2013: Steven Jens (record  158.0850)
Winner 2012: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2011: Turnover adjusted least squares
Winner 2010: Jeff Sagarin
Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Hank Trexler
Winner 2007: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: CPA Rankings
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2004: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2003: Viacheslav Ugolnikov
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Hank's Power Ratings
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings





   BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM (Entire Season)



Winner: Ed Bemiss

To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is dubbed predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded.
One flaw can totally take a system out of the running.
  For those that were available for the full season there was a clear winner
in Ed Bemiss.  The closest competitors were Game Time Decision and turnover
adjusted least squares.


Winner 2013: Ed Bemiss
Winner 2012: Sagarin Pure Points
Winner 2011: nationalsportsrankings.com
Winner 2010: LVSC opening line
Winner 2009: Vegas Line
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Jeff Sagarin
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle
Winner 2005: Vegas Line
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Matthews Grid
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: Ed Kambour



  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM (Second Half)


Winner:  Ironrank.com

 For the second half it was a very close contest with Ironrank.com slightly
beating out Ed Bemiss.  Pigskin Index comes in third.

Winner 2013: IronRank.com
Winner 2012: Sagarin Pure Points
Winner 2011: Edward Kambour Ratings
Winner 2010: LVSC opening line
Winner 2009: Game Time Decision
Winner 2008: Dokter Entropy System
Winner 2007: Cover 81
Winner 2006: CPA Retro
Winner 2005: Hank Trexler
Winner 2004: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: Kenneth Massey
Winner 2001: Monte Carlo Markov Chain
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings