Welcome to the 13th annual NFL Prediction Tracker Awards. The purpose of these awards is
to help raise the publicity for those systems that have been superior in various qualities of
interest. Most awards will be based entirely on the numbers I've monitored with my prediction
tracker web pages. In 2012 I tracked 73 rating/pedictions systems in he NFL.



BEST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)


Winner: Sagarin Pure Points

  Jeff Sagarin's pure points, or predictor ratings had the most correct games
straight up this season, 179-89, 67.29%.  I would say the numbers were on the low
side this season.  The line was down at number 21.  But I am noticing that the line
seems to be right around 65% every year.  This season is much lower than the record
of 72% set in 2005.

Winner 2012: Sagarin Pure Points (predictive)
Winner 2011: Nationalsportsranking.com
Winner 2010: LVSC opening line
Winner 2009: JFM Power Ratings, Sportrends
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Sonny Moore
Winner 2006: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (record 72.28%)
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Herman Matthews
Winner 2001: JFM Power Ratings, ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2000: CPA Rankings
Winner 1999: Kenneth Massey Ratings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)

Winner:  Least Squares Regression

 Some consider the true measure of a ranking system to be its record against the Vegas line.
Although that record for every single game is probably not the best measurement but that is
what I have.
 Least squares regression led the way with a ATS record of 142-115, 55.25%.  There were not
a great number of systems that did well. Only 7 did better than 53% while 19 did worse
than 47%.  FF-Winners.com had what must of been one of the worst seasons ever at only 39.4%


Winner 2012: Least squares regression
Winner 2011: Pi-Rate Ratings
Winner 2010: Sagarin Predictor
Winner 2009: CPA Rankings.
Winner 2008: Nutshell Retro, Entropy System
Winner 2007: Sagarin Predictive
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle (record 59.0%)
Winner 2005: Least squares with team HFA
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: CPA Retro Rankings
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: Yourlinx
Winner 1999: PerformanZ Ratings





  SMALLEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (Entire Season) 

Winner: Vegas Line

  Deviation from the game score is the difference between the game prediction
and the actual result.  A value of zero would mean the score difference is predicted
exactly.  One property of a good system would be to minimize the system's average
game deviation.
  The line wasn't always picking the correct winners this season but it was getting
the closest to the final score difference with an average of 10.7079.  What if Sports
which I believe is simulation based was very close behind at 10.7116.


Winner 2012: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2011: Dokter's Entropy System
Winner 2010: LVSC Opening line
Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated) (record 9.9513)
Winner 2004: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2000: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 1999: Vegas Line (updated)




 SMALLEST BIAS (Entire Season)  


Winner: PerformanZ Ratings

  Bias is a little different from deviation.  Deviation measures the
distance between a prediction and the actual result.  Bias combines
distance and location of the prediction.   Bias measures whether the
predictions are too high or too low.  So if a system has an
average bias of +0.25 that means that on average the system
gave 0.25 points too many to the home team.
  The biases were fairly well distributed this year. They often trend towards one
direction.  My PerformanZ Ratings had the smallest bias, -0.015 points per game.


Winner 2012: PerformanZ Ratings
Winner 2011; Lee Burdorf
Winner 2010: Stephen Kerns
Winner 2009; System Median
Winner 2008: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2007: CPA Rankings
Winner 2006: Tom Benson
Winner 2005: Sagarin Elo (record 0.001)
Winner 2004: System Average
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: Sagarin Pure Points
Winner 2001: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2000: Pigskin Index
Winner 1999: Flyman Ratings




 MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR (Entire Season)


Winner: Vegas Line

  This award is based on mean square error. Mean square error takes
into account both deviation and bias and is a commonly used measure
of evaluating estimators.
 The Line takes back the most accurate crown after not receiving it
for the last couple of years.  The line had a mean square error of
194.107.  The Computer adjusted line was only a 10th of a point behind.


Winner 2012: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2011: Dokter Entropy System
Winner 2010: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2006: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2004: Vegas Line (updated) (record 166.808)
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (opening)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line
Winner 2000: Pigskin Index




            SECOND HALF AWARDS 


Some systems donít begin publishing rankings until every team has played a couple of games, while
the season-long systems often rely on preset starting values in the early part of the season. For
those reasons, I like to look at the results over the second half of the season when these systems
have had time to become 'burned in' to  the season's data. Second half data consists of all games
from week 10 through the Super Bowl.



  BEST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half)


Winner: Sonny Moore
Winner: Kasulis Enhanced Spread

  There was a tie for best win/loss record over the second half between Sonny Moore's
Computer Power Ratings and Kasulis Enhanced Spread.  The each had a record of 93-41,
69.403%.  The line did well in the second half, coming in 6th place.  Other than
the two leaders, Sagarin Predictor, Steven Jens, and the Computer Adjusted line were
the only systems to out perform the line in the second half.


Winner 2012: Sonny Moore, Kasulis Enhanced Spread
Winner 2011: Turnover adjusted least squares
Winner 2010: LVSC opening line
Winner 2009: The Vegas line, Computer adjusted line, Ashby AccuRatings, StatFox, Upset Report, CPA Rankings
Winner 2008: Nutshell Girl
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line, Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated), Nutshell Sports (record 100-37, 72.99%)
Winner 2004: Pigskin Index
Winner 2003: JFM Power Ratings, Kasulis Enhanced Spread, Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Least Absolute Value Regression, JFM Power Ratings, CPA Rankings
Winner 2001: Pythagorean Ratings, Elo Ratings, Ken Massey Ratings
Winner 2000: PerformanZ Ratings, Scoring Effeciency
Winner 1999: Ken Massey, Ed Kambor, Pythagorean Ratings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Second Half)

Winner:  Sagarin
Winner:  Sagarin Predictor

 Jeff Sagarin sweeps the second half ATS results by taking the top 3 places.  His overall
rating and his predictor ratings tied wiht the best record, 77-52, 59.69%.  This number is
just half a game off the all time record of 60% set back in 2002.
Overall the numbers were about average with the exception of a handfull of systems that
did extraordinarily good.  Other than Sagarin's three systems four others did better than 55%.
A couple did really bad. Kambour Ratings, the winner the last two seasons, was only 38% this year.
Every year people ask me which is the best system against the spread year to year.  I have
always felt that an ATS record, at least against an updated line, is independent from year
to year.  As we see, a system can go from first one year to last the next.


Winner 2012: Sagarin Predictor, Sagarin Overall
Winner 2011: Kambour Ratings
Winner 2010: Sagarin Predictor, Edward Kambour
Winner 2009: Grid Iron Gold
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2006: CPA Rankings
Winner 2005: Tom Benson
Winner 2004: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2003: Logistic Regression, Viacheslav Ugolnikov
Winner 2002: Least Absolute Value Regression (record 78-52, 60.0%)
Winner 2001: Stat Fox
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings
Winner 1999: Least squares using team specific home field advantages





  SMALLEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (Second Half)


Winner: Lou St. John

 New comer Lou St. John had the lowest mean absolute error over the second half
with an average error of 10.9111.  This is a full point behind the all time record.
But St. John had the only predictions to be more accurate than the line which
finished in second place.


Winner 2012: Lou St. John
Winner 2011: Turnover adjusted least squares
Winner 2010: Massey Ratings
Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: The Entropy System
Winner 2007: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: Jeff Self
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated) (record 9.9489)
Winner 2004: Least Squares Regression
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlays.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings




  SMALLEST BIAS (Second Half)    


Winner: Nutshell Sports

  Nutshell Sports had the lowest average bias over the second half with a value of
-0.1845.  The full season numbers were fairly evenly distributed around zero, but
in the second half all but one system, Steven Jens, were on the negative side, with
the median being close to -1.


Winner 2012: Nutshell Sports
Winner 2011: Lee Burdorf
Winner 2010: CPA Retro Rankings
Winner 2009; Game Time Decision
Winner 2008: CPA Rankings
Winner 2007: Pigskin Index (record 0.0077)
Winner 2006: CPA Retro Rankings
Winner 2005: Kasulis Enhanced Spread
Winner 2004: Tom Benson Gridmarks
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: StatFox.com
Winner 2001: Monte Carlo Markov Chain
Winner 2000: Flyman Performance Ratings
Winner 1999: Flyman Performance Ratings




  MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR (Second Half)


Winner: Vegas Line


  The most accurate system for the second half, defined by having the smallest mean square error
was the Vegas Line with an MSE of 213.41.  Sagarin Predictor was in second place and the only
non aggragate system to make the top 5.


Winner 2012: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2011: Turnover adjusted least squares
Winner 2010: Jeff Sagarin
Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Hank Trexler
Winner 2007: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: CPA Rankings
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2004: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2003: Viacheslav Ugolnikov
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Hank's Power Ratings
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings (record 165.954)





   BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM (Entire Season)


Winner: Sagarin Pure Points

To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is dubbed predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded
One flaw can totally take a system out of the running.
  The best predictive system for the full season was Jeff Sagarin's Pure Points,
or predictor ratings.  It was by a comfortable margin, the other competitors were
the line, the system average and Sagarin overall.


Winner 2012: Sagarin Pure Points
Winner 2011: nationalsportsrankings.com
Winner 2010: LVSC opening line
Winner 2009: Vegas Line
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Jeff Sagarin
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle
Winner 2005: Vegas Line
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Matthews Grid
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: Ed Kambour



  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM (Second Half)



Winner: Sagarin Pure Points

 In the second half it was a little bit closer but Sagarin's Pure Points ratings win
here as well.   Jens, Sagarin overall, and Game Time Decision also had good years.


Winner 2012: Sagarin Pure Points
Winner 2011: Edward Kambour Ratings
Winner 2010: LVSC opening line
Winner 2009: Game Time Decision
Winner 2008: Dokter Entropy System
Winner 2007: Cover 81
Winner 2006: CPA Retro
Winner 2005: Hank Trexler
Winner 2004: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: Kenneth Massey
Winner 2001: Monte Carlo Markov Chain
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings