Welcome to the 10th annual NFL Prediction Tracker Awards. The purpose of these awards is
to help raise the publicity for those systems that have been superior in various qualities of
interest. Most awards will be based entirely on the numbers I've monitored with my prediction
tracker web pages. In 2009 the number of NFL systems went up by 3 to a total of 64 system,
Apologies for all typos and mistakes, it is always enough of a challenge just to get this out
before all the details of the past season are forgotten.



BEST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Entire Season)


Winner: JFM's NFL Ratings 
Winner: Sportrends

  It was a tight competition this year.  Eight systems finished within 3 games of the lead and we
had two tie for the top spot.  Both JFM's NFL ratings and Sportreds finished at 185-82, (69.29%).
JFM also tied for the win in 2001.  These numbers were up a couple percentage points, or 5 games
over last year's winner.  But off the record set by the line in 2005.  Other than the top two,
CPA Rankings was the only other system to do better than the line this year.  Last year only
two systems got two thirds of their games correct, this year 19 did.



Winner 2009: JFM Power Ratings, Sportrends
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Sonny Moore
Winner 2006: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (record 72.28%)
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Herman Matthews
Winner 2001: JFM Power Ratings, ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2000: CPA Rankings
Winner 1999: Kenneth Massey Ratings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Entire Season)

Winner:  CPA Rankings


  Some consider the true measure of a ranking system to be its record against the Vegas line.
Although that record for every single game is probably not the best measurement but that is
what I have.  The lines must have been off this year because it was a very good year in general
for the ATS numbers, especially over the first half of the season when there were a lot of
lopsided matchups.  The winner than year was CPA Rankings with a record of 147-114, 56.32%.
This is 2001 all over again.  The second award in a row to be a repeat of 2001.  This also
seems to support my theory that it is not the systems that change from year to year but the
underlying environment of the actual games/schedule and that some systems will always do best
when that random environment swings their way in a particular year.


Winner 2009: CPA Rankings.
Winner 2008: Nutshell Retro, Entropy System
Winner 2007: Sagarin Predictive
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle (record 59.0%)
Winner 2005: Least squares with team HFA
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: CPA Retro Rankings
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: Yourlinx
Winner 1999: PerformanZ Ratings





  SMALLEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (Entire Season) 

Winner: The Vegas Line

  Third straight award to match 2001.  This wasn't that close this year like it was last
year.  The Vegas Line won rather easily over the opening line second, and computer adjusted
line third.  Then the best operated system was Wunderdog Sports fourth.
The line had the lowest mean average error this year but it was a whopping 11.3352.
Just think about that for a minute until it sinks in.  The best set of predictions all season
still missing the final outcome by an average of over 11 points per gam.
As near as I can reckon, this is the worst lowest average error in the history of computer ratings,
or at least in the decade that I have kept track.  I suppose that played a factor in so
many rating systems doing so well against the line this year.



Winner 2001: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated) (record 9.9513)
Winner 2004: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2000: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 1999: Vegas Line (updated)




 SMALLEST BIAS (Entire Season)  

Winner: Median of all system predictions

  The biases were not that small this year either.  The median prediction was the clsoest to
zero at -0.03430.  Consider last year the winner was 0.002.  The biases ranged anywhere from
-2 to +1 this year.  The overall average was slightly negative.


Winner 2009; System Median
Winner 2008: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2007: CPA Rankings
Winner 2006: Tom Benson
Winner 2005: Sagarin Elo (record 0.001)
Winner 2004: System Average
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: Sagarin Pure Points
Winner 2001: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2000: Pigskin Index
Winner 1999: Flyman Ratings




 MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR (Entire Season)


Winner: The Vegas Line

  Again, the numbers show this was a relatively poor season for accuracy.  The line wins with
a MSE of 205.40300.  This is the first time the line has ever been over 200 and it was still enough
to win the year.


Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2006: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2004: Vegas Line (updated) (record 166.808)
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (opening)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line
Winner 2000: Pigskin Index




            SECOND HALF AWARDS 


Some systems donít begin publishing rankings until every team has played a couple of games, while the season-long
systems often rely on preset starting values in the early part of the season. For those reasons, I like to look
at the results over the second half of the season when these systems have had time to become 'burned in' to the
season's data. Second half data consists of all games from week 10 through the Super Bowl.



  BEST STRAIGHT UP WINNERS (Second Half)


Winner:  The Vegas line
Winner:  Comupter Adjusted Line
Winner:  Ashyby AccuRatigns
Winner:  StatFox
Winner:  CPA Rankings
Winner:  Upset Report

   Wow, Six systems tied for the best record over the second half.  This category often has ties
but this is a record number of ties. The Vegas line, Computer adjusted line, Ashby AccuRatings,
StatFox, Upset Report, and CPA all finished 96-42, 69.57%   This was 4 wins better than the
winner last year and four fewer than the record from 2005.


Winner 2009: The Vegas line, Computer adjusted line, Ashby AccuRatings, StatFox, Upset Report, CPA Rankings
Winner 2008: Nutshell Girl
Winner 2007: Computer Adjusted Line, Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated), Nutshell Sports (record 100-37, 72.99%)
Winner 2004: Pigskin Index
Winner 2003: JFM Power Ratings, Kasulis Enhanced Spread, Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Least Absolute Value Regression, JFM Power Ratings, CPA Rankings
Winner 2001: Pythagorean Ratings, Elo Ratings, Ken Massey Ratings
Winner 2000: PerformanZ Ratings, Scoring Effeciency
Winner 1999: Ken Massey, Ed Kambor, Pythagorean Ratings




  BEST AGAINST THE SPREAD (Second Half)


Winner: Grid Iron Gold

  Some systems had a great second half, The winner, Grid Iron Gold was 73-54, 57.49%
over the second half.  Game Time Decision was also over 57%.


Winner 2009: Grid Iron Gold
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2006: CPA Rankings
Winner 2005: Tom Benson
Winner 2004: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2003: Logistic Regression, Viacheslav Ugolnikov
Winner 2002: Least Absolute Value Regression (record 78-52, 60.0%)
Winner 2001: Stat Fox
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings
Winner 1999: Least squares using team specific home field advantages





  SMALLEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (Second Half)

Winner:  The Vegas Line

  Odd, The Vegas Line has won this award every odd numbered year and not won in any even
numbered year.  The line won with a average error of 11.0942.  Again, not a good mark.
The best operated system was Ashby, a good .20 points behind in 4th place.



Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: The Entropy System
Winner 2007: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: Jeff Self
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated) (record 9.9489)
Winner 2004: Least Squares Regression
Winner 2003: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlays.com
Winner 2001: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings




  SMALLEST BIAS (Second Half)    



Winner:  Game Time Decision


  These numbers were just downright bad this year.  The lowest bias overt the second half was
Game Time Decision at -0.52520.  Every single computer ratings system was negative and more so
that -0.52.  The average was lower than -1.  This being all positive or all negative has flip
flopped from year to year over the last three seasons.



Winner 2009; Game Time Decision
Winner 2008: CPA Rankings
Winner 2007: Pigskin Index (record 0.0077)
Winner 2006: CPA Retro
Winner 2005: Kasulis Enhanced Spread
Winner 2004: Tom Benson Gridmarks
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: StatFox.com
Winner 2001: Monte Carlo Markov Chain
Winner 2000: Flyman Performance Ratings
Winner 1999: Flyman Performance Ratings




  MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR (Second Half)


Winner: The Vegas Line


  The most accurate system for the second half, defined by having the smallest mean square error
was the Vegas Line, with a 197.16300.  Considering how bad the season was this is only 2 points higher
than last year's winning number.  The best non-line based system was Massey in 4th place with 207.126.


Winner 2009: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2008: Hank Trexler
Winner 2007: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2006: CPA Rankings
Winner 2005: Vegas Line (updated)
Winner 2004: Computer Adjusted Line
Winner 2003: Viacheslav Ugolnikov
Winner 2002: FreeSportsPlay.com
Winner 2001: Hank's Power Ratings
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings (record 165.954)





   BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM (Entire Season)


Winner: The Vegas Line

To come up with the best overall predictive system I give each system
points for how well they do in all of the above categories.  I then sum up
the points and the system with the highest total is dubbed predictive system
of the year.  So this award goes to the system that is the most well rounded
One flaw can totally take a system out of the running.


This year the best predictive system for the entire season was The Vegas Line.
If the line won this award every year then I would give it to the best non line system
but this is only the second time the line was good enough to deserve it.  Or more bluntly
none of the systems deserved it this year.  The other contenders for best all
around system would have been CPA Rankings (won in 2001) or TheSportsCruncher.
But neither of these were close enough to the line in my metric to earn the win, so they
remain #2 and #3.


Winner 2009: Vegas Line
Winner 2008: Ken Ashby
Winner 2007: Jeff Sagarin
Winner 2006: Brian Gabrielle
Winner 2005: Vegas Line
Winner 2004: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2003: Beck Elo
Winner 2002: Matthews Grid
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: Ed Kambour



  BEST PREDICTIVE SYSTEM (Second Half)


Winner:  Game Time Decision

The race for best predictive system over the second half was a little more competitive
that for the full season.  At least one came in higher than the line. Somewhat of a surprise,
the winner was Game time Decision.  Second and third place were the Line, and StatFox.


Winner 2009: Game Time Decision
Winner 2008: Dokter Entropy System
Winner 2007: Cover 81
Winner 2006: CPA Retro
Winner 2005: Hank Trexler
Winner 2004: ARGH Power Ratings
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: Kenneth Massey
Winner 2001: Monte Carlo Markov Chain
Winner 2000: Pythagorean Ratings





 RETRO AWARDS 


  The retrodictive categories are based on each systems final standings and measure things by applying
those final ratings to the entire season in retrospect.  As I did in the college awards I am going to
break this down into big systems (estimate team specific home field advantage) and simple systems
(do not estimate team specific home field advantage).



 MOST RETRODICTIVE WINS - Complex System 

Winner: Least squares with team specific HFA


Least squares with a team specific home field advantage takes this one with a record of
206-61, 77.15%.  This was 6 games better than last season.


Winner 2009: Least squares with team specific HFA
Winner 2008: Least squares with team specific HFA
Winner 2007: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2006: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2005: The Sports Report SLOTS (record 89.9%)
Winner 2004: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2003: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2002: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2001: The system average
Winner 2000: CPA Rankings





 MOST RETRODICTIVE WINS - Simple System 

Winner: Sonny Moore Power Ratings

 Sonny Moore led the simple systems with a record of 194-73.  This was only 6th place overall.


Winner 2009: Sonny Moore
Winner 2008: Jeff Self
Winner 2007: Least Absolute Value Regression (L1)
Winner 2006: Jeff Sagarin
Winner 2005: Dunkel Index (record 78.3%)
Winner 2004: Brian Gabrielle
Winner 2003: Frank Alder





 SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE ABSOLUTE ERROR - Complex System

Winner: Least squares with team specific HFA


Least Squares with Team Specific Home Field Advantage led with an average error of 9.9265.
This was a increase of almost ane entire point over last season and is almost 2 points higher
than the record set in 2007.


Winner 2009: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2008: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2007: The Sports Report Predictive (record 8.0858)
Winner 2006: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2005: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2004: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2003: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2002: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2001: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2000: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA





 SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE ABSOLUTE ERROR - Simple System 


Winner: System Median

The system median wins the award this year with an average error of 10.3655 and
was 4th place overall.  If you don't want to consider the median a simple system
then you have to drop down to the system that usually wins this category,
least absolute value regression, which was 7th overall.


Winner 2009: System median
Winner 2008: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2007: Least Absolute Value Regression (record 8.9498)
Winner 2006: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2005: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2004: Sagarin Points
Winner 2003: Sagarin Points





 SMALLEST RETRODICTIVE BIAS 

Winner:  PerformanZ Ratings

  It looks like I have finally found something that my PerformanZ ratings are good at.  It wins
the award for the second year in a row, and third time overall.  The bias was -0.0304.  Sonny
Moore was the only other sytem under 0.10.  So the numbers were not very good this year.  in
general they were on the positive side.  All of these numbers are similar to what we saw last year.


Winner 2009: PerformanZ Ratings
Winner 2008: PerformanZ Ratings
Winner 2007: The Sports Report SLOTS (record -0.0006)
Winner 2006: Least Absolute Value Regression
Winner 2005: The Sports Report Elo
Winner 2004: CPA Rankings
Winner 2003: CPA Rankings
Winner 2002: PerformanZ Ratings
Winner 2001: Herman Matthews
Winner 2000: Massey Ratings





 MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR - Complex system 



Winner: Least squares with team specific HFA

 As with absolute error we as a whole were not as accurate this year.  Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
reclaims the top spot with an averge MSE of 152.868.   The second year in a row this has gone up.



Winner 2009: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2008: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2007: The Sports Report Predictive
Winner 2006: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2005: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2004: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA (record 112.865)
Winner 2003: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2002: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2001: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA
Winner 2000: Least Squares with Team Specific HFA





 MOST ACCURATE SYSTEM - SMALLEST MEAN SQUARE ERROR - Simple system 

Winner:  System Average

The most accurate system without a team specific home field advantage was the system average,
MSE=170.429, 5th place overall.  If you don't consider the average a simple system because it
is made up of all the systems, then you have to drop down to least absolute value regression
which was a few points behind.

Winner 2009: System Average
Winner 2008: Least Square Regression
Winner 2007: The Sports Report
Winner 2006: The Sports Report
Winner 2005: The Sports Report
Winner 2004: Least Square Regression (record 132.830)
Winner 2003: Sagarin points




 BEST OVERALL RETRODICTIVE SYSTEM - Complex System 



Winner: Least squares with team specific HFA

As with the other overall a wards, points are assigned to systems in each category then summed up.
The system with the most points wins.


  Least Squares with team home field advantages claims the best overall restrodictive
system crown. The top 5 all use team specific home field advantage.  2nd and 3rd
place where Ed Kambour, and CPA Retro Rankings.


Winner 2009: Least Squares with team home field advantages
Winner 2008: Least Squares with team home field advantages
Winner 2007: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2006: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2005: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2004: Least Squares with team home field advantages
Winner 2003: The Sports Report SLOTS
Winner 2002: Least Squares with team home field advantages
Winner 2001: CPA Rankings
Winner 2000: CPA Rankings




 BEST OVERALL RETRODICTIVE SYSTEM - Small System 



Winner: Sonny Moore Power Ratings

The best overall retrodictive system among the small systems was Sonny Moore's Power Ratings.
This was good for 6th best overall.  Sagarin had the 2nd and 3rd place finishes with his main rating
and predictive rating.   The system median and system average would have to be considered 2nd and
3rd.  It appears to have been an off year for the regression based systems.


Winner 2009: Sonny Moore
Winner 2008: Least Absolute Regression (L1)
Winner 2007: System Median
Winner 2006: Jeff Sagarin
Winner 2005: Sagarin Points
Winner 2004: Sagarin Points
Winner 2003: Frank Alder