ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2012 Season Totals

Through 2013-01-07

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Hank Trexler	0.76818	0.53914	12.5350	-1.9885	254.549	729	560	169	365	312
2	Sagarin Predictive	0.76503	0.52999	12.4721	-0.5048	251.843	732	560	172	380	337
3	Laz Index	0.76503	0.55292	12.5917	-0.9660	256.549	732	560	172	397	321
4	Line (updated)	0.76334		12.2079	-0.0999	237.353	731	558	173
5	System Median	0.76230	0.53458	12.2820	-0.4177	243.088	732	558	174	371	323
6	System Average	0.76230	0.52925	12.2988	-0.3715	243.839	732	558	174	380	338
7	Sagarin	0.76230	0.54457	12.5498	-0.5195	254.382	732	558	174	391	327
8	SID ratings	0.76230	0.52441	12.6688	-1.5823	261.434	732	558	174	376	341
9	Computer Adjusted Line	0.76197	0.56250	12.1881	-0.1307	237.003	731	557	174	144	112
10	Born Power Index	0.76093	0.50628	12.8769	-0.1989	269.676	732	557	175	363	354
11	Daniel Curry Index	0.75980	0.52743	12.7530	-0.0036	264.855	587	446	141	298	267
12	Massey Ratings	0.75956	0.54436	12.4536	-0.5280	253.068	732	556	176	362	303
13	Billingsley+	0.75956	0.49791	12.8117	-0.2970	262.695	732	556	176	357	360
14	Catherwood Ratings	0.75820	0.51825	12.8538	0.4433	265.720	732	555	177	355	330
15	Schmidt Comp. Ratings	0.75687	0.51961	12.7966	-0.5800	264.131	728	551	177	371	343
16	Pigskin Index	0.75683	0.50514	12.5029	-0.5291	248.995	732	554	178	344	337
17	Ted Thompson Avg	0.75410	0.51598	12.2891	-0.2964	242.629	732	552	180	339	318
18	NationalSportsRankings	0.75410	0.47346	12.6557	-0.3468	253.394	732	552	180	339	377
19	Compughter Ratings	0.75380	0.52676	12.7520	-0.9668	262.787	723	545	178	374	336
20	Massey Consensus	0.75273	0.53492	12.7017	-0.0788	261.022	732	551	181	383	333
21	Super List	0.75273	0.51883	14.1772	0.1546	319.551	732	551	181	372	345
22	CPA Rankings	0.75241	0.53443	12.8132	-0.0172	266.583	622	468	154	326	284
23	Keeper	0.75000	0.52933	13.0000	0.6739	270.419	732	549	183	379	337
24	Dokter Entropy	0.74863	0.49025	12.4594	0.0421	243.702	732	548	184	352	366
25	Moore Power Ratings	0.74727	0.47911	12.7913	-0.4013	262.599	732	547	185	344	374
26	NutShell Combo	0.74727	0.53417	12.9937	-1.1380	276.958	732	547	185	383	334
27	PerformanZ Ratings	0.74727	0.52441	13.1356	-0.9055	281.988	732	547	185	376	341
28	ARGH Power Ratings	0.74727	0.54066	12.7541	-0.2443	260.894	732	547	185	379	322
29	Fremeau FEI	0.74624	0.50607	13.8464	-0.1596	306.861	599	447	152	292	285
30	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.74555	0.50562	12.6317	-0.1454	253.375	731	545	186	360	352
31	Edward Kambour	0.74483	0.51831	12.6932	-0.4261	256.244	725	540	185	368	342
32	CF By the Numbers	0.74454	0.52975	12.4754	0.0174	252.514	732	545	187	365	324
33	Atomic Football	0.74454	0.49791	12.5863	-0.1889	248.557	732	545	187	357	360
34	Payne Power Ratings	0.74454	0.53203	13.0152	-0.0932	278.157	732	545	187	382	336
35	Line (opening)	0.74419	0.48726	12.3338	-0.1545	244.285	731	544	187	306	322
36	Dunkel Index	0.74317	0.50279	13.0293	-0.7408	272.727	732	544	188	361	357
37	Directorofinformation	0.74180	0.51536	12.9370	-0.3157	270.648	732	543	189	369	347
38	Stat Fox	0.74180	0.48494	12.8633	0.8023	262.701	732	543	189	338	359
39	Ashby AccuRatings	0.74180	0.49778	12.6421	-0.4200	252.091	732	543	189	337	340
40	Bias Free Rankings	0.74044	0.52301	13.6575	-0.2906	309.152	732	542	190	375	342
41	DP Dwiggins	0.74044	0.52374	13.1974	-3.8482	281.477	732	542	190	375	341
42	Martien Maas	0.73876	0.54416	17.3152	0.4494	481.615	356	263	93	191	160
43	Brent Craig	0.73865	0.52801	12.6198	-0.6077	258.661	727	537	190	377	337
44	Linear Regression	0.73846	0.54593	12.4589	-0.3380	257.115	390	288	102	208	173
45	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.73634	0.47757	13.1612	-1.9211	278.314	732	539	193	330	361
46	Howell	0.73497	0.53431	12.8922	-0.1957	265.284	732	538	194	366	319
47	Pi-Ratings Vintage	0.73461	0.52402	12.8242	-0.7249	263.241	731	537	194	360	327
48	Ted Thompson SPRS	0.73361	0.53621	12.9674	-0.0197	266.559	732	537	195	385	333
49	NutShell Sports	0.73361	0.51127	13.9676	-1.2123	317.670	732	537	195	363	347
50	Fort Heresy Model	0.73256	0.43529	14.1431	0.4187	308.515	86	63	23	37	48
51	Laffaye RWP	0.73224	0.52368	14.1205	-0.6736	321.082	732	536	196	376	342
52	Bihl System	0.73196	0.56168	12.8291	-0.5527	270.438	388	284	104	214	167
53	Beck Elo	0.72951	0.52786	12.9636	-0.4220	271.971	732	534	198	379	339
54	Pointshare Ratings	0.72927	0.50963	13.1973	-1.9799	292.776	591	431	160	291	280
55	Dave Congrove	0.72678	0.50975	12.8353	-0.6741	269.486	732	532	200	366	352
56	Wolfe *	0.72634	0.52083	13.5093	0.3424	290.177	391	284	107	200	184
57	Warren Claassen	0.72541	0.53760	13.5271	-1.1966	300.707	732	531	201	386	332
58	CPA Retro	0.72347	0.49016	13.7821	-0.0321	303.591	622	450	172	299	311
59	Anderson/Hester *	0.72123	0.53125	13.4008	0.0363	287.225	391	282	109	204	180
60	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.72051	0.56021	15.4152	-0.0579	410.972	390	281	109	214	168
61	Regression-Based Analys	0.71995	0.48006	13.4208	0.6973	290.779	732	527	205	325	352
62	Sagarin Elo	0.71858	0.51464	13.4536	-0.5851	287.024	732	526	206	369	348
63	Colley Rankings *	0.71611	0.52083	13.4440	-0.1469	288.363	391	280	111	200	184
64	Laffaye XWP	0.71534	0.52424	15.2205	4.3356	365.744	678	485	193	346	314
65	Billingsley	0.71448	0.52925	13.4513	-0.4277	291.181	732	523	209	380	338
66	Marsee	0.71448	0.53201	13.7787	1.3788	307.019	732	523	209	374	329
67	Nutshell Girl	0.71448	0.51541	13.5645	-1.1495	303.928	732	523	209	368	346
68	Stephen Kerns	0.71217	0.50381	13.8096	-0.7033	309.033	674	480	194	331	326
69	Logistic Regression	0.71026	0.47781	15.3340	-3.2139	376.918	390	277	113	183	200
70	Covers.com	0.70902	0.51257	13.5973	-1.2167	304.345	732	519	213	367	349
71	Massey *	0.70588	0.50000	13.5468	0.0672	294.319	391	276	115	191	191
72	Sportrends	0.70203	0.48197	13.4267	-0.6862	288.451	641	450	191	294	316
73	football.loudsound.org	0.70188	0.52294	14.0955	-4.8538	330.744	691	485	206	342	312
74	testing new method	0.68638	0.52094	13.8300	2.6846	314.082	389	267	122	199	183

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases