Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)
2012 Season Totals
Through 2013-01-07
Rank |
System |
Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias |
Mean Square Error |
games |
suw |
sul |
atsw |
atsl |
1 | Hank Trexler | 0.76818 | 0.53914 | 12.5350 | -1.9885 | 254.549 | 729 | 560 | 169 | 365 | 312 |
2 | Sagarin Predictive | 0.76503 | 0.52999 | 12.4721 | -0.5048 | 251.843 | 732 | 560 | 172 | 380 | 337 |
3 | Laz Index | 0.76503 | 0.55292 | 12.5917 | -0.9660 | 256.549 | 732 | 560 | 172 | 397 | 321 |
4 | Line (updated) | 0.76334 | | 12.2079 | -0.0999 | 237.353 | 731 | 558 | 173 | | |
5 | System Median | 0.76230 | 0.53458 | 12.2820 | -0.4177 | 243.088 | 732 | 558 | 174 | 371 | 323 |
6 | System Average | 0.76230 | 0.52925 | 12.2988 | -0.3715 | 243.839 | 732 | 558 | 174 | 380 | 338 |
7 | Sagarin | 0.76230 | 0.54457 | 12.5498 | -0.5195 | 254.382 | 732 | 558 | 174 | 391 | 327 |
8 | SID ratings | 0.76230 | 0.52441 | 12.6688 | -1.5823 | 261.434 | 732 | 558 | 174 | 376 | 341 |
9 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.76197 | 0.56250 | 12.1881 | -0.1307 | 237.003 | 731 | 557 | 174 | 144 | 112 |
10 | Born Power Index | 0.76093 | 0.50628 | 12.8769 | -0.1989 | 269.676 | 732 | 557 | 175 | 363 | 354 |
11 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.75980 | 0.52743 | 12.7530 | -0.0036 | 264.855 | 587 | 446 | 141 | 298 | 267 |
12 | Massey Ratings | 0.75956 | 0.54436 | 12.4536 | -0.5280 | 253.068 | 732 | 556 | 176 | 362 | 303 |
13 | Billingsley+ | 0.75956 | 0.49791 | 12.8117 | -0.2970 | 262.695 | 732 | 556 | 176 | 357 | 360 |
14 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.75820 | 0.51825 | 12.8538 | 0.4433 | 265.720 | 732 | 555 | 177 | 355 | 330 |
15 | Schmidt Comp. Ratings | 0.75687 | 0.51961 | 12.7966 | -0.5800 | 264.131 | 728 | 551 | 177 | 371 | 343 |
16 | Pigskin Index | 0.75683 | 0.50514 | 12.5029 | -0.5291 | 248.995 | 732 | 554 | 178 | 344 | 337 |
17 | Ted Thompson Avg | 0.75410 | 0.51598 | 12.2891 | -0.2964 | 242.629 | 732 | 552 | 180 | 339 | 318 |
18 | NationalSportsRankings | 0.75410 | 0.47346 | 12.6557 | -0.3468 | 253.394 | 732 | 552 | 180 | 339 | 377 |
19 | Compughter Ratings | 0.75380 | 0.52676 | 12.7520 | -0.9668 | 262.787 | 723 | 545 | 178 | 374 | 336 |
20 | Massey Consensus | 0.75273 | 0.53492 | 12.7017 | -0.0788 | 261.022 | 732 | 551 | 181 | 383 | 333 |
21 | Super List | 0.75273 | 0.51883 | 14.1772 | 0.1546 | 319.551 | 732 | 551 | 181 | 372 | 345 |
22 | CPA Rankings | 0.75241 | 0.53443 | 12.8132 | -0.0172 | 266.583 | 622 | 468 | 154 | 326 | 284 |
23 | Keeper | 0.75000 | 0.52933 | 13.0000 | 0.6739 | 270.419 | 732 | 549 | 183 | 379 | 337 |
24 | Dokter Entropy | 0.74863 | 0.49025 | 12.4594 | 0.0421 | 243.702 | 732 | 548 | 184 | 352 | 366 |
25 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.74727 | 0.47911 | 12.7913 | -0.4013 | 262.599 | 732 | 547 | 185 | 344 | 374 |
26 | NutShell Combo | 0.74727 | 0.53417 | 12.9937 | -1.1380 | 276.958 | 732 | 547 | 185 | 383 | 334 |
27 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.74727 | 0.52441 | 13.1356 | -0.9055 | 281.988 | 732 | 547 | 185 | 376 | 341 |
28 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.74727 | 0.54066 | 12.7541 | -0.2443 | 260.894 | 732 | 547 | 185 | 379 | 322 |
29 | Fremeau FEI | 0.74624 | 0.50607 | 13.8464 | -0.1596 | 306.861 | 599 | 447 | 152 | 292 | 285 |
30 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.74555 | 0.50562 | 12.6317 | -0.1454 | 253.375 | 731 | 545 | 186 | 360 | 352 |
31 | Edward Kambour | 0.74483 | 0.51831 | 12.6932 | -0.4261 | 256.244 | 725 | 540 | 185 | 368 | 342 |
32 | CF By the Numbers | 0.74454 | 0.52975 | 12.4754 | 0.0174 | 252.514 | 732 | 545 | 187 | 365 | 324 |
33 | Atomic Football | 0.74454 | 0.49791 | 12.5863 | -0.1889 | 248.557 | 732 | 545 | 187 | 357 | 360 |
34 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.74454 | 0.53203 | 13.0152 | -0.0932 | 278.157 | 732 | 545 | 187 | 382 | 336 |
35 | Line (opening) | 0.74419 | 0.48726 | 12.3338 | -0.1545 | 244.285 | 731 | 544 | 187 | 306 | 322 |
36 | Dunkel Index | 0.74317 | 0.50279 | 13.0293 | -0.7408 | 272.727 | 732 | 544 | 188 | 361 | 357 |
37 | Directorofinformation | 0.74180 | 0.51536 | 12.9370 | -0.3157 | 270.648 | 732 | 543 | 189 | 369 | 347 |
38 | Stat Fox | 0.74180 | 0.48494 | 12.8633 | 0.8023 | 262.701 | 732 | 543 | 189 | 338 | 359 |
39 | Ashby AccuRatings | 0.74180 | 0.49778 | 12.6421 | -0.4200 | 252.091 | 732 | 543 | 189 | 337 | 340 |
40 | Bias Free Rankings | 0.74044 | 0.52301 | 13.6575 | -0.2906 | 309.152 | 732 | 542 | 190 | 375 | 342 |
41 | DP Dwiggins | 0.74044 | 0.52374 | 13.1974 | -3.8482 | 281.477 | 732 | 542 | 190 | 375 | 341 |
42 | Martien Maas | 0.73876 | 0.54416 | 17.3152 | 0.4494 | 481.615 | 356 | 263 | 93 | 191 | 160 |
43 | Brent Craig | 0.73865 | 0.52801 | 12.6198 | -0.6077 | 258.661 | 727 | 537 | 190 | 377 | 337 |
44 | Linear Regression | 0.73846 | 0.54593 | 12.4589 | -0.3380 | 257.115 | 390 | 288 | 102 | 208 | 173 |
45 | Tempo Free Gridiron | 0.73634 | 0.47757 | 13.1612 | -1.9211 | 278.314 | 732 | 539 | 193 | 330 | 361 |
46 | Howell | 0.73497 | 0.53431 | 12.8922 | -0.1957 | 265.284 | 732 | 538 | 194 | 366 | 319 |
47 | Pi-Ratings Vintage | 0.73461 | 0.52402 | 12.8242 | -0.7249 | 263.241 | 731 | 537 | 194 | 360 | 327 |
48 | Ted Thompson SPRS | 0.73361 | 0.53621 | 12.9674 | -0.0197 | 266.559 | 732 | 537 | 195 | 385 | 333 |
49 | NutShell Sports | 0.73361 | 0.51127 | 13.9676 | -1.2123 | 317.670 | 732 | 537 | 195 | 363 | 347 |
50 | Fort Heresy Model | 0.73256 | 0.43529 | 14.1431 | 0.4187 | 308.515 | 86 | 63 | 23 | 37 | 48 |
51 | Laffaye RWP | 0.73224 | 0.52368 | 14.1205 | -0.6736 | 321.082 | 732 | 536 | 196 | 376 | 342 |
52 | Bihl System | 0.73196 | 0.56168 | 12.8291 | -0.5527 | 270.438 | 388 | 284 | 104 | 214 | 167 |
53 | Beck Elo | 0.72951 | 0.52786 | 12.9636 | -0.4220 | 271.971 | 732 | 534 | 198 | 379 | 339 |
54 | Pointshare Ratings | 0.72927 | 0.50963 | 13.1973 | -1.9799 | 292.776 | 591 | 431 | 160 | 291 | 280 |
55 | Dave Congrove | 0.72678 | 0.50975 | 12.8353 | -0.6741 | 269.486 | 732 | 532 | 200 | 366 | 352 |
56 | Wolfe * | 0.72634 | 0.52083 | 13.5093 | 0.3424 | 290.177 | 391 | 284 | 107 | 200 | 184 |
57 | Warren Claassen | 0.72541 | 0.53760 | 13.5271 | -1.1966 | 300.707 | 732 | 531 | 201 | 386 | 332 |
58 | CPA Retro | 0.72347 | 0.49016 | 13.7821 | -0.0321 | 303.591 | 622 | 450 | 172 | 299 | 311 |
59 | Anderson/Hester * | 0.72123 | 0.53125 | 13.4008 | 0.0363 | 287.225 | 391 | 282 | 109 | 204 | 180 |
60 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.72051 | 0.56021 | 15.4152 | -0.0579 | 410.972 | 390 | 281 | 109 | 214 | 168 |
61 | Regression-Based Analys | 0.71995 | 0.48006 | 13.4208 | 0.6973 | 290.779 | 732 | 527 | 205 | 325 | 352 |
62 | Sagarin Elo | 0.71858 | 0.51464 | 13.4536 | -0.5851 | 287.024 | 732 | 526 | 206 | 369 | 348 |
63 | Colley Rankings * | 0.71611 | 0.52083 | 13.4440 | -0.1469 | 288.363 | 391 | 280 | 111 | 200 | 184 |
64 | Laffaye XWP | 0.71534 | 0.52424 | 15.2205 | 4.3356 | 365.744 | 678 | 485 | 193 | 346 | 314 |
65 | Billingsley | 0.71448 | 0.52925 | 13.4513 | -0.4277 | 291.181 | 732 | 523 | 209 | 380 | 338 |
66 | Marsee | 0.71448 | 0.53201 | 13.7787 | 1.3788 | 307.019 | 732 | 523 | 209 | 374 | 329 |
67 | Nutshell Girl | 0.71448 | 0.51541 | 13.5645 | -1.1495 | 303.928 | 732 | 523 | 209 | 368 | 346 |
68 | Stephen Kerns | 0.71217 | 0.50381 | 13.8096 | -0.7033 | 309.033 | 674 | 480 | 194 | 331 | 326 |
69 | Logistic Regression | 0.71026 | 0.47781 | 15.3340 | -3.2139 | 376.918 | 390 | 277 | 113 | 183 | 200 |
70 | Covers.com | 0.70902 | 0.51257 | 13.5973 | -1.2167 | 304.345 | 732 | 519 | 213 | 367 | 349 |
71 | Massey * | 0.70588 | 0.50000 | 13.5468 | 0.0672 | 294.319 | 391 | 276 | 115 | 191 | 191 |
72 | Sportrends | 0.70203 | 0.48197 | 13.4267 | -0.6862 | 288.451 | 641 | 450 | 191 | 294 | 316 |
73 | football.loudsound.org | 0.70188 | 0.52294 | 14.0955 | -4.8538 | 330.744 | 691 | 485 | 206 | 342 | 312 |
74 | testing new method | 0.68638 | 0.52094 | 13.8300 | 2.6846 | 314.082 | 389 | 267 | 122 | 199 | 183 |
* This system does not make predictions. I make predictions for this
system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.
Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.
The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.
Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]
Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)
Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases