Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2017 Retrodiction Results

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Sagarin0.749030.0000012.92140.0742268.26077357919400
2Sagarin Predictive0.569210.0000016.8393-1.7192456.79477344033300
3Massey Concensus Rank0.661920.0000015.12671.1300355.34377251126100
4SuperList0.670120.0000015.23510.3900363.51177351825500
5Sonny Moore0.707630.0000014.29270.2849318.03577354722600
6Laz Index0.710220.0000014.47270.1033331.94577354922400
7Born Power Index0.736090.0000013.59980.9244299.91377356920400
8Stat Fox0.736090.0000012.11381.4968235.48177356920400
9NutShell Sports0.737390.0000015.44701.5045383.13877357020300
10Pigskin Index0.737390.0000012.56020.6965253.26177357020300
11Sagarin Golden Mean0.745150.0000012.91260.0803268.14177357619700
12Least Squares w/ HFA0.799220.000009.47630.1814142.92277261715500
13Sagarin Recent0.754200.0000012.34860.1758245.30577358319000
14Ashby AccuRatings0.755180.0000010.91701.6325192.56477258318900
15system Median0.756790.0000011.50880.0720222.19877358518800
16System Average0.765850.0000011.12240.0099208.71177359218100
17Stephen Kerns0.770340.0000010.86830.9803197.08576258717500
18Beck Elo0.772320.0000010.5646-0.1582191.35177359717600
19Logistic Regression0.778500.0000015.2796-3.3124386.84777260117100
20Least Squares0.778500.0000010.4450-0.4734172.94777260117100
21PerformanZ Ratings0.788860.0000011.35750.1725205.49477260916300
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases