Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2022 Last Week

Through 2022-10-02
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Beck Elo0.736840.5087712.56650.3679230.5175742152928
2Payne Power Ratings0.719300.5438612.1926-0.0860214.3295741163126
3Line (updated)0.701750.5769211.7105-0.6404208.0945740171511
4Line (Midweek)0.7017511.7544-0.6140210.344574017
5Computer Adjusted Line0.701750.4545511.7895-0.6316209.7655740171518
6Moore Power Ratings0.701750.5087711.8402-0.6121214.1285740172928
7Stephen Kerns0.701750.4285714.0905-0.4414317.8305740172432
8Loudsound.org0.684210.5087712.7193-3.1053225.8135739182928
9Payne W/L0.684210.5178612.3868-0.3496210.8505739182927
10Brent Craig0.684210.4736812.24460.1467218.8445739182730
11ESPN FPI0.684210.5438611.81840.2749220.4775739183126
12Line (opening)0.684210.5227311.7105-0.4649210.4745739182321
13Dokter Entropy0.684210.5892911.2686-0.0714198.9095739183323
14ARGH Power Ratings0.684210.5370411.9825-0.7105199.1975739182925
15Dunkel Index0.678570.4285713.51870.3387279.3825638182432
16PI-Rate Bias0.666670.5000012.7544-0.9965247.6005738192828
17Sagarin Recent0.666670.3684213.3565-1.0905264.6515738192136
18FEI Projections0.666670.3750013.2419-3.2875274.8695738192135
19Cleanup Hitter0.666670.5178613.1579-0.3860263.6205738192927
20Edward Kambour0.666670.4035112.7939-0.6889248.5425738192334
21Pi-Rate Ratings0.666670.4736812.6632-1.1263237.3105738192730
22TeamRankings.com0.666670.4386012.3825-0.9825234.5925738192532
23Donchess Inference0.666670.5471711.8002-0.7756199.4895738192924
24Keeper0.649120.4386016.45231.0993406.7475737202532
25Payne Predict0.649120.4210514.55680.4074303.9005737202433
26PerformanZ Ratings0.649120.4386013.0314-0.0981246.8765737202532
27DP Dwiggins0.649120.4339614.1754-1.7895310.8915737202330
28Versus Sports Simulator0.649120.4035113.17960.0425273.5935737202334
29Massey Consensus0.649120.4736812.78390.9909238.6415737202730
30Pi-Ratings Mean0.649120.4912312.5737-1.0965231.6805737202829
31Roundtable0.649120.5614013.5263-0.6842273.0625737203225
32Stat Fox0.631580.4509813.08790.8423269.1495736212328
33Billingsley0.631580.5714312.6072-0.7749223.6885736213224
34David Harville0.631580.4561412.3961-0.8186235.7985736212631
35Dave Congrove0.631580.5964912.3507-0.8012216.5085736213423
36Sagarin Ratings0.631580.4561412.2672-1.2079222.0285736212631
37Sagarin Points0.631580.4736812.2337-0.9860225.5185736212730
38System Average0.631580.5789512.1267-0.4621222.1275736213324
39System Median0.631580.5357112.0416-0.5609220.4435736213026
40Laffaye RWP0.625000.5357112.7929-1.0786224.9975635213026
41Laz Index0.614040.5614012.4356-1.4037233.2795735223225
42Howell0.614040.5185212.5877-0.5526234.5345735222826
43Pigskin Index0.614040.4629612.9474-0.3158245.0865735222529
44Talisman Red0.614040.5614013.2335-0.8058268.7605735223225
45Massey Ratings0.596490.5087712.1611-1.5302217.0135734232928
46Waywardtrends0.596490.5789512.2558-0.1063232.2575734233324
47Daniel Curry Index0.596490.4386013.9233-0.2970293.0605734232532
48Catherwood Ratings0.596490.3928614.10531.6491292.7595734232234
49Born Power Index0.596490.4386014.12720.6605312.2165734232532
50Sagarin Golden Mean0.578950.5614011.8304-1.1749211.3125733243225
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases