Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2021-12-05
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.727270.4545518.8864-7.7955529.027118356
2Beck Elo0.727270.6363616.5755-7.2700434.949118374
3Laffaye RWP0.636360.6363616.6800-6.9673404.288117474
4Massey Consensus0.636360.5454517.5255-7.6127493.559117465
5Laz Index0.636360.7272717.7309-8.9200420.101117483
6Sagarin Golden Mean0.636360.5454518.1482-8.5755468.794117465
7Super List0.636360.5454518.1482-6.9209528.885117465
8David Harville0.545450.5454518.1873-8.8891460.319116565
9Dave Congrove0.545450.4545519.7836-9.6164523.913116556
10Stat Fox0.545450.4545518.7264-7.8173488.037116556
11Sagarin Points0.545450.5454518.3582-9.6764439.148116565
12TeamRankings.com0.545450.5454518.2909-8.7091459.059116565
13Least Squares w/ HFA0.545450.5454518.2555-7.4336472.970116565
14FEI Projections0.545450.5454518.1727-9.3000450.322116565
15Billingsley0.545450.3636418.1482-7.6700507.792116547
16Bihl System0.545450.4545518.1064-8.6682448.754116556
17Donchess Inference0.545450.5454517.2545-7.6545434.930116565
18Sagarin Recent0.545450.7272717.4036-6.9364477.267116583
19Brent Craig0.545450.6363617.4591-7.8173424.077116574
20PerformanZ Ratings0.545450.5454517.5927-7.2945436.312116565
21Moore Power Ratings0.545450.5454517.9300-8.4409446.939116565
22ESPN FPI0.545450.6363617.8409-8.4027431.729116574
23Payne Power Ratings0.545450.4545518.0509-8.3764479.216116556
24Sagarin Ratings0.545450.5454518.1282-8.8009452.944116565
25Talisman Red0.500000.7000015.8900-6.3020348.380105573
26Versus Sports Simulator0.454550.4545518.4727-9.5073423.276115656
27Pi-Ratings Mean0.454550.4545518.4909-7.9636469.695115656
28Pigskin Index0.454550.5555618.6364-8.2727490.778115654
29Logistic Regression0.454550.5454518.7118-10.1573477.370115665
30Dunkel Index0.454550.4545518.7282-7.7773489.966115656
31Payne Predict0.454550.5454518.7318-9.3736457.006115665
32PI-Rate Bias0.454550.2727318.9818-8.2364485.009115638
33Born Power Index0.454550.4545519.0500-8.2136470.140115656
34Edward Kambour0.454550.5454519.1745-8.2418491.413115665
35Daniel Curry Index0.454550.4545519.4282-7.4027525.629115656
36Cleanup Hitter0.454550.4000020.4545-8.3636549.914115646
37Dokter Entropy0.454550.6363617.3645-8.4464423.727115674
38Linear Regression0.454550.5454518.3936-8.6736452.461115665
39Payne W/L0.454550.5454518.3618-7.8418504.373115665
40Line (Midweek)0.4545518.3182-9.3182430.2201156
41Line (updated)0.454550.5000018.3182-9.3182430.720115611
42Computer Adjusted Line0.454550.7500018.2727-9.0909434.941115631
43DP Dwiggins0.454550.5555618.1818-8.9091434.603115654
44System Average0.454550.4545518.0718-8.2736453.426115656
45Line (opening)0.454550.6000017.9545-9.0455406.130115664
46System Median0.454550.6363617.9091-8.3091445.820115674
47Massey Ratings0.454550.6363617.8327-8.8800425.036115674
48Stephen Kerns0.454550.7272716.9373-7.3373376.577115683
49Howell0.444440.3333319.8889-7.1111580.32694536
50Pi-Rate Ratings0.363640.4545518.4818-7.8455473.547114756
51Keeper0.363640.6363618.5827-9.1536455.443114774
52Loudsound.org0.250000.7500012.2500-8.7500170.60941331
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases