Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2021-09-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Edward Kambour0.866670.4666713.0280-0.4267256.113453962124
2System Median0.844440.4222212.5402-0.1580228.243453871926
3System Average0.844440.4222212.5604-0.3631229.645453871926
4Catherwood Ratings0.822220.4523813.40000.5556262.682453781923
5Payne W/L0.822220.4000014.5609-1.1587337.731453781827
6Donchess Inference0.822220.2954513.6000-0.3556268.763453781331
7Payne Power Ratings0.822220.4000013.3998-0.6171280.400453781827
8Moore Power Ratings0.822220.3555613.3824-1.2758258.971453781629
9Born Power Index0.822220.4666712.93440.5789263.848453782124
10PI-Rate Bias0.822220.5777812.53131.5976229.579453782619
11Stat Fox0.822220.5000012.42221.1778244.925453782121
12Versus Sports Simulator0.822220.4666712.33640.8316210.107453782124
13Beck Elo0.800000.4888913.6784-0.6540301.504453692223
14ARGH Power Ratings0.800000.4666713.5111-1.2000293.568453692124
15Laffaye RWP0.800000.4545513.1789-0.9313263.448453692024
16Massey Consensus0.800000.4222212.92581.3951260.890453691926
17Payne Predict0.800000.4222212.92070.1931258.944453691926
18Pi-Ratings Mean0.800000.5777812.53331.2578223.684453692619
19Pigskin Index0.800000.6428612.22221.0222201.355453692715
20TeamRankings.com0.800000.5111111.95361.0913211.563453692322
21Computer Adjusted Line0.800000.5151511.74440.2556206.526453691716
22Line (Midweek)0.8000011.71110.3333204.46445369
23Line (updated)0.800000.5833311.66670.3111205.265453691410
24Line (opening)0.800000.5853711.58890.3000200.004453692417
25Talisman Red0.800000.4888912.3940-0.9864224.624453692223
26Dokter Entropy0.777780.4222212.42270.6049211.9544535101926
27Cleanup Hitter0.777780.4418612.44441.1333245.5834535101924
28Laz Index0.777780.4666712.80070.4771237.4764535102124
29Pi-Rate Ratings0.777780.5333312.85381.3822240.5544535102421
30PerformanZ Ratings0.755560.4000014.2818-1.1676297.3234534111827
31FEI Projections0.755560.4888916.5784-4.7189438.3514534112223
32Super List0.755560.5111115.37002.5118345.8914534112322
33Billingsley0.755560.4222214.1533-0.7440322.0284534111926
34David Harville0.755560.4000012.9633-0.4024244.0264534111827
35Massey Ratings0.755560.5111112.7598-0.8971249.5554534112322
36ESPN FPI0.755560.5111112.40290.7438215.6424534112322
37Keeper0.733330.4666713.49671.3487269.0974533122124
38Sagarin Points0.733330.4222213.5420-1.1527256.4734533121926
39Sagarin Ratings0.733330.4000013.5502-1.2076251.0674533121827
40Dave Congrove0.733330.4222214.20400.1867306.1334533121926
41Sagarin Recent0.711110.3777813.4107-1.3324246.4374532131728
42Howell0.711110.4000014.5780-2.1998317.3074532131827
43Stephen Kerns0.688890.5111113.42620.6267289.0034531142322
44Sagarin Golden Mean0.688890.4000013.6589-1.1971252.0854531141827
45Daniel Curry Index0.688890.4666718.0571-9.5464570.2234531142124
46DP Dwiggins0.666670.5000014.6222-1.2444328.2324530152222
47Dunkel Index0.666670.3888917.78223.9300415.30118126711
48Loudsound.org0.577780.5333315.1556-3.7333362.1794526192421
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases