Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2022-01-11
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Born Power Index1.000000.0000013.100013.100011001
2Line (Midweek)1.0000012.000012.0000110
3Edward Kambour1.000000.0000012.050012.050011001
4Beck Elo1.000000.0000012.100012.100011001
5ESPN FPI1.000000.0000012.120012.120011001
6System Average1.000000.0000012.550012.550011001
7Brent Craig1.000000.0000012.580012.580011001
8System Median1.000000.0000012.640012.640011001
9Pi-Ratings Mean1.000000.0000012.700012.700011001
10PI-Rate Bias1.000000.0000012.900012.900011001
11Dunkel Index1.000001.000006.97006.970011010
12Payne Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.390013.390011001
13Moore Power Ratings1.000000.0000013.460013.460011001
14Pi-Rate Ratings1.000000.0000013.500013.500011001
15Sagarin Ratings1.000000.0000013.950013.950011001
16Massey Ratings1.000000.0000014.200014.200011001
17Super List1.000000.0000014.830014.830011001
18Dave Congrove1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
19Massey Consensus1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
20Logistic Regression1.000000.0000014.990014.990011001
21Line (updated)1.0000012.000012.0000110
22FEI Projections1.000001.000003.50003.500011010
23Howell1.000001.000007.50007.500011010
24Linear Regression1.000001.000007.54007.540011010
25ARGH Power Ratings1.000001.000008.00008.000011010
26Daniel Curry Index1.000001.000008.11008.110011010
27Talisman Red1.000001.000008.53008.530011010
28DP Dwiggins1.000001.000009.00009.000011010
29Versus Sports Simulator1.000001.000009.16009.160011010
30Payne Predict1.000001.000009.62009.620011010
31PerformanZ Ratings1.000001.0000010.580010.580011010
32Laz Index1.000001.0000010.850010.850011010
33Least Squares w/ HFA1.000001.0000011.540011.540011010
34Sagarin Points1.000001.0000011.580011.580011010
35Laffaye RWP1.000001.0000011.710011.710011010
36Stephen Kerns1.000001.0000011.800011.800011010
37David Harville1.000001.0000011.830011.830011010
38Computer Adjusted Line1.0000012.000012.0000110
39Loudsound.org1.0000012.000012.0000110
40TeamRankings.com1.000001.0000010.000010.000011010
41Cleanup Hitter0.000000.0000020.500020.500010101
42Pigskin Index0.000000.0000019.000019.000010101
43Donchess Inference0.000000.0000018.000018.000010101
44Sagarin Recent0.000000.0000016.960016.960010101
45Line (opening)0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
46Stat Fox0.000000.0000016.000016.000010101
47Billingsley0.000000.0000015.800015.800010101
48Sagarin Golden Mean0.000000.0000015.710015.710010101
49Payne W/L0.000000.0000015.420015.420010101
50Dokter Entropy0.000000.0000015.300015.300010101
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases