Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2020 Last Week

Through 2021-01-12
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Versus Sports Simulator0.826090.5652213.4626-2.6443272.776231941310
2Sagarin Ratings0.769230.4615412.9977-3.3708258.864262061214
3Sagarin Golden Mean0.769230.4800013.3973-4.2681266.741262061213
4Sagarin Points0.730770.4230812.9635-3.2888257.153261971115
5Daniel Curry Index0.727270.4545514.7191-4.0645298.872118356
6Sagarin Recent0.692310.5769212.9854-2.4400262.384261881511
7TeamRankings.com0.692310.4230813.3577-2.5500268.671261881115
8Massey Ratings0.692310.5769213.3388-4.0250269.570261881511
9David Harville0.692310.5384613.3154-3.1115268.339261881412
10Dokter Entropy0.692310.4615413.2338-2.6877276.010261881214
11System Average0.692310.4230812.9858-2.6296257.681261881115
12System Median0.692310.3846212.9112-2.7988253.968261881016
13FEI Projections0.692310.5384612.8573-1.7427235.007261881412
14Pi-Rate Ratings0.692310.5769212.8235-2.8919260.555261881511
15PI-Rate Bias0.692310.5384612.7731-2.5192256.385261881412
16Dunkel Index0.692310.6538512.7454-1.2623245.80426188179
17Born Power Index0.692310.6923112.7192-1.8962256.34826188188
18Stephen Kerns0.692310.5769211.8519-2.0365241.693261881511
19Keeper0.680000.5600013.1620-2.0260254.621251781411
20Line (updated)0.653850.4000013.5385-2.0769267.8922617946
21Donchess Inference0.653850.3076914.2538-3.1692300.20926179818
22Catherwood Ratings0.653850.5000014.1538-2.1538299.129261791313
23ESPN FPI0.653850.3461514.1204-3.5719288.98926179917
24Stat Fox0.653850.4800013.7304-3.7304276.399261791213
25Computer Adjusted Line0.653850.5000013.4423-2.2500264.5652617988
26Pi-Ratings Mean0.653850.5384612.7962-2.7731258.486261791412
27PerformanZ Ratings0.653850.6923112.7704-1.1788245.50426179188
28Super List0.653850.5000013.9085-1.4369286.550261791313
29Line (Midweek)0.6153813.3269-1.8269270.035261610
30ARGH Power Ratings0.615380.5200013.38460.6154274.1392616101312
31Laz Index0.615380.4230813.8342-3.0065295.6822616101115
32Line (opening)0.615380.4166715.1154-2.6154345.7562616101014
33ThePowerRank.com0.600000.5600014.4440-5.0840317.2962515101411
34Talisman Red0.600000.7333315.1627-6.0840346.1311596114
35Beck Elo0.576920.4615414.3365-2.4027319.0842615111214
36Dave Congrove0.576920.6153815.9285-4.1346333.2662615111610
37Massey Consensus0.576920.5000014.8900-2.2508298.1442615111313
38Loudsound.org0.571430.5238116.2381-1.2857313.588211291110
39Edward Kambour0.538460.5769214.1581-3.1627291.9762614121511
40Laffaye RWP0.520000.4000016.0400-0.4800335.4322513121015
41Moore Power Ratings0.500000.5769213.2135-1.1642280.1462613131511
42Cleanup Hitter0.500000.5000014.5765-4.6919329.7862613131313
43Howell0.400000.3913015.46040.5804334.421251015914
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases