Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2010 Last Week

Through
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1Lee Burdorf0.742860.5882411.8689-2.7369221.304352692014
2NationalSportsRankings0.714290.6764711.9823-2.6286231.3833525102311
3Laffaye XWP0.714290.5454513.6769-4.2711293.9033525101815
4Stat Fox0.685710.5882412.1711-2.5700230.1393524112014
5Brent Craig 20.685710.6176512.6000-2.2000244.1433524112113
6Pigskin Index0.685710.5294112.8000-3.7126265.0263524111816
7Moore Power Ratings0.685710.4705912.8737-3.0869255.4413524111618
8Keeper0.685710.5588212.93541.3554270.6973524111915
9Catherwood Ratings0.685710.5882413.0857-2.5143265.4863524112014
10ARGH Power Ratings0.685710.5757613.4000-2.7143284.0753524111914
11Dunkel Index0.685710.5588215.0151-1.1317397.2903524111915
12System Median0.657140.6764713.1840-3.0143262.7233523122311
13Least Squares w/ HFA0.657140.5000014.2331-0.0274301.5353523121717
14Warren Claassen0.657140.5294114.0697-3.2783307.4833523121816
15Covers.com0.657140.5454514.0100-4.6911313.7053523121815
16Howell0.657140.5882413.6143-2.2714291.4503523122014
17Bihl System0.657140.6470613.3703-3.2286266.4813523122212
18Edward Kambour0.657140.5882413.3020-3.2289275.8093523122014
19Sagarin Predictive0.657140.5882413.1383-3.2137263.6363523122014
20Linear Regression0.657140.6470612.9671-2.9174258.1183523122212
21Billingsley0.628570.4705914.2286-3.6857304.7323522131618
22Atomic Football0.628570.4117614.2446-3.0023302.7323522131420
23Dokter Entropy0.628570.5151514.0666-3.2837291.0953522131716
24Tempo Free Gridiron0.628570.5151513.9714-4.8286298.5433522131716
25Payne Power Ratings0.628570.5757613.8534-3.2637293.5643522131914
26Computer Adjusted Line0.628570.4545513.5286-2.3286286.92135221356
27Stephen Kerns0.628570.4705913.3200-2.4457275.5753522131618
28Marsee0.628570.6060613.2857-3.1143269.6293522132013
29Austin Sports0.628570.5882413.2674-2.9817261.5293522132014
30BG Sports0.628570.6060613.12863.7571277.8643522132013
31CPA Rankings0.628570.6176513.1009-2.4734258.6243522132113
32Born Power Index0.628570.6176511.8826-2.3911228.5433522132113
33Laz Index0.628570.5588213.4929-3.5963280.2093522131915
34Bassett Model0.619050.6500013.8262-2.1414307.92321138137
35Dave Congrove0.600000.5294113.7889-2.6626279.8873521141816
36Regression-Based Analys0.600000.4687514.2571-1.7429309.1713521141517
37Sportrends0.600000.5000014.0000-3.6571293.3573521141515
38Massey Consensus0.600000.5588213.9729-3.2980300.3043521141915
39Hank Trexler0.600000.4848513.8857-4.2286301.4293521141617
40Sagarin0.600000.5882413.8169-3.1580286.3903521142014
41Line (updated)0.6000013.4571-2.2000287.471352114
42PerformanZ Ratings0.600000.5294113.3783-2.9697280.5943521141816
43System Average0.600000.6176513.3197-2.8540267.0913521142113
44NutShell Combo0.600000.6764713.1703-3.1063250.2203521142311
45CF By the Numbers0.571430.5454513.3429-1.5143271.0573520151815
46Martien Maas0.571430.5000016.4829-0.0771394.2553520151717
47Massey *0.571430.5294114.9674-2.5463328.6603520151816
48Sagarin Elo0.571430.5294114.9189-2.9029328.7973520151816
49Anderson/Hester *0.571430.5000014.6220-3.6763331.8783520151717
50Ashby AccuRatings0.571430.4375014.1143-3.3143293.4863520151418
51Schmidt Comp. Ratings0.571430.4411814.1000-3.9263292.5603520151519
52Beck Elo0.571430.4117613.7823-4.3989281.3703520151420
53Brent Craig0.571430.5151513.5714-3.8857311.2143520151716
54NutShell Sports0.571430.6176512.0786-1.3831217.6403520152113
55Massey Ratings0.542860.5588213.5434-2.8331270.0463519161915
56Line (opening)0.542860.4000014.0571-2.2000296.8863519161218
57Wolfe *0.542860.5294114.6777-2.8269323.8793519161816
58CPA Retro0.542860.4117615.1217-4.1486354.4193519161420
59Logistic Regression0.542860.4411815.2091-6.3983337.5493519161519
60Billingsley+0.514290.4411813.5906-3.1797266.3083518171519
61Super List0.514290.5294114.2900-1.1643298.1193518171816
62Nutshell Girl0.514290.4411814.6617-4.8326314.9333518171519
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases