Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2021 Last Week

Through 2021-12-05
Rank System Pct. Correct Against Spread Absolute Error Bias Mean Square Error games suw sul atsw atsl
1ARGH Power Ratings0.727270.4545518.8864-7.7955529.027118356
2Beck Elo0.727270.6363616.5755-7.2700434.949118374
3Bihl System0.545450.4545518.1064-8.6682448.754116556
4Billingsley0.545450.3636418.1482-7.6700507.792116547
5Born Power Index0.454550.4545519.0500-8.2136470.140115656
6Brent Craig0.545450.6363617.4591-7.8173424.077116574
7Cleanup Hitter0.454550.4000020.4545-8.3636549.914115646
8Computer Adjusted Line0.454550.7500018.2727-9.0909434.941115631
9Daniel Curry Index0.454550.4545519.4282-7.4027525.629115656
10Dave Congrove0.545450.4545519.7836-9.6164523.913116556
11David Harville0.545450.5454518.1873-8.8891460.319116565
12Dokter Entropy0.454550.6363617.3645-8.4464423.727115674
13Donchess Inference0.545450.5454517.2545-7.6545434.930116565
14DP Dwiggins0.454550.5555618.1818-8.9091434.603115654
15Dunkel Index0.454550.4545518.7282-7.7773489.966115656
16Edward Kambour0.454550.5454519.1745-8.2418491.413115665
17ESPN FPI0.545450.6363617.8409-8.4027431.729116574
18FEI Projections0.545450.5454518.1727-9.3000450.322116565
19Howell0.444440.3333319.8889-7.1111580.32694536
20Keeper0.363640.6363618.5827-9.1536455.443114774
21Laffaye RWP0.636360.6363616.6800-6.9673404.288117474
22Laz Index0.636360.7272717.7309-8.9200420.101117483
23Least Squares w/ HFA0.545450.5454518.2555-7.4336472.970116565
24Line (Midweek)0.4545518.3182-9.3182430.2201156
25Line (opening)0.454550.6000017.9545-9.0455406.130115664
26Line (updated)0.454550.5000018.3182-9.3182430.720115611
27Linear Regression0.454550.5454518.3936-8.6736452.461115665
28Logistic Regression0.454550.5454518.7118-10.1573477.370115665
29Loudsound.org0.250000.7500012.2500-8.7500170.60941331
30Massey Consensus0.636360.5454517.5255-7.6127493.559117465
31Massey Ratings0.454550.6363617.8327-8.8800425.036115674
32Moore Power Ratings0.545450.5454517.9300-8.4409446.939116565
33Payne Power Ratings0.545450.4545518.0509-8.3764479.216116556
34Payne Predict0.454550.5454518.7318-9.3736457.006115665
35Payne W/L0.454550.5454518.3618-7.8418504.373115665
36PerformanZ Ratings0.545450.5454517.5927-7.2945436.312116565
37PI-Rate Bias0.454550.2727318.9818-8.2364485.009115638
38Pi-Rate Ratings0.363640.4545518.4818-7.8455473.547114756
39Pi-Ratings Mean0.454550.4545518.4909-7.9636469.695115656
40Pigskin Index0.454550.5555618.6364-8.2727490.778115654
41Sagarin Golden Mean0.636360.5454518.1482-8.5755468.794117465
42Sagarin Points0.545450.5454518.3582-9.6764439.148116565
43Sagarin Ratings0.545450.5454518.1282-8.8009452.944116565
44Sagarin Recent0.545450.7272717.4036-6.9364477.267116583
45Stat Fox0.545450.4545518.7264-7.8173488.037116556
46Stephen Kerns0.454550.7272716.9373-7.3373376.577115683
47Super List0.636360.5454518.1482-6.9209528.885117465
48System Average0.454550.4545518.0718-8.2736453.426115656
49System Median0.454550.6363617.9091-8.3091445.820115674
50Talisman Red0.500000.7000015.8900-6.3020348.380105573
51TeamRankings.com0.545450.5454518.2909-8.7091459.059116565
52Versus Sports Simulator0.454550.4545518.4727-9.5073423.276115656
* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases