ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

Computer Rating System Prediction Results for College Football (NCAA IA)

2014 Last Week

Through 2015-01-13

Rank	System	Pct. Correct	Against Spread	Absolute Error	Bias	Mean Square Error	games	suw	sul	atsw	atsl
1	Sagarin Points Elo	0.66667	0.53846	13.3921	-0.5279	271.620	39	26	13	21	18
2	MDS Model	0.63158	0.63158	12.1587	-1.9713	251.398	38	24	14	24	14
3	Ashby AccuRatings	0.61538	0.65789	12.6408	-0.0756	264.180	39	24	15	25	13
4	Payne Power Ratings	0.61538	0.53846	13.0490	-0.6567	265.322	39	24	15	21	18
5	Dave Congrove	0.61538	0.53846	13.1364	-0.9210	284.607	39	24	15	21	18
6	Logistic Regression	0.61538	0.51282	14.0295	-1.0356	309.557	39	24	15	20	19
7	Howell	0.60526	0.60000	12.6047	-1.2363	257.172	38	23	15	21	14
8	Daniel Curry Index	0.58974	0.51282	12.9385	-0.2205	244.673	39	23	16	20	19
9	Pigskin Index	0.58974	0.48649	13.0518	-0.5892	264.739	39	23	16	18	19
10	Beck Elo	0.58974	0.58974	13.2636	0.2195	256.572	39	23	16	23	16
11	Massey Consensus	0.56410	0.64103	12.8485	-0.7105	264.458	39	22	17	25	14
12	Dunkel Index	0.56410	0.46154	13.7313	1.8533	274.221	39	22	17	18	21
13	NutShell Combo	0.56410	0.56410	13.4723	-0.9518	271.504	39	22	17	22	17
14	Edward Kambour	0.56410	0.48718	13.3715	0.6726	278.002	39	22	17	19	20
15	Laffaye RWP	0.56410	0.53846	13.2364	-1.2733	280.166	39	22	17	21	18
16	Massey Ratings	0.56410	0.55882	13.1282	-0.0513	268.102	39	22	17	19	15
17	Moore Power Ratings	0.56410	0.64103	13.0900	0.1459	264.668	39	22	17	25	14
18	Bihl System	0.57895	0.57895	12.8295	-0.2042	252.164	38	22	16	22	16
19	Keeper	0.55263	0.50000	12.8163	-0.2295	243.321	38	21	17	19	19
20	Laffaye XWP	0.53846	0.46154	18.0103	9.4769	499.397	39	21	18	18	21
21	FEI Projections	0.53846	0.47222	14.0256	-1.5128	297.249	39	21	18	17	19
22	Nutshell Eye	0.53846	0.51282	13.7092	-1.8564	289.067	39	21	18	20	19
23	Donchess Inference	0.53846	0.53846	13.2618	0.3136	267.606	39	21	18	21	18
24	Linear Regression	0.53846	0.57895	13.2392	1.6900	269.832	39	21	18	22	16
25	NutShell Sports	0.53846	0.56410	13.2231	-1.3513	261.181	39	21	18	22	17
26	ThePowerRank.com	0.53846	0.55263	13.1438	-0.5331	271.815	39	21	18	21	17
27	Sagarin Points	0.53846	0.53846	13.1015	0.9138	263.956	39	21	18	21	18
28	Super List	0.53846	0.61538	13.0003	0.6449	262.485	39	21	18	24	15
29	Stat Fox	0.53846	0.50000	12.9495	0.5392	262.489	39	21	18	17	17
30	ARGH Power Ratings	0.53846	0.67568	12.6923	-0.0769	262.734	39	21	18	25	12
31	Nutshell Girl	0.51282	0.53846	14.3433	-1.2644	350.044	39	20	19	21	18
32	System Median	0.51282	0.60526	12.9718	0.0744	257.170	39	20	19	23	15
33	PointShare	0.51282	0.43590	13.8203	0.3741	291.751	39	20	19	17	22
34	ComPughter Ratings	0.51282	0.56410	13.6600	0.3846	298.971	39	20	19	22	17
35	Least Squares w/ HFA	0.51282	0.33333	17.4151	5.0885	424.213	39	20	19	13	26
36	Billingsley	0.51282	0.48718	13.6244	-1.5567	299.108	39	20	19	19	20
37	Lee Burdorf	0.51282	0.48718	13.5615	1.1718	279.769	39	20	19	19	20
38	Line (Midweek)	0.51282		13.4103	0.4359	269.111	39	20	19
39	Sagarin Golden Mean	0.51282	0.58974	13.3351	1.7751	287.826	39	20	19	23	16
40	CPA Retro	0.51282	0.48718	13.1656	0.5846	270.650	39	20	19	19	20
41	PerformanZ Ratings	0.51282	0.56410	13.0626	0.2944	269.764	39	20	19	22	17
42	CPA Rankings	0.51282	0.46154	13.0467	1.4103	260.878	39	20	19	18	21
43	Born Power Index	0.51282	0.56410	12.7105	1.1515	253.945	39	20	19	22	17
44	Sportrends	0.54054	0.58824	13.2973	0.4595	287.846	37	20	17	20	14
45	Sagarin Ratings	0.51282	0.64103	13.1859	0.8362	263.966	39	20	19	25	14
46	Thompson CAL	0.48718	0.58974	13.3385	0.5436	263.340	39	19	20	23	16
47	Catherwood Ratings	0.48718	0.44737	13.8718	1.6154	289.959	39	19	20	17	21
48	Marsee	0.48718	0.47368	13.6667	0.5897	278.376	39	19	20	18	20
49	Line (updated)	0.48718	0.31579	13.5769	0.3718	273.426	39	19	20	6	13
50	Pi-Ratings Mean	0.48718	0.52632	13.5151	0.8900	266.799	39	19	20	20	18
51	Computer Adjusted Line	0.48718	0.40909	13.5000	0.3205	270.773	39	19	20	9	13
52	Billingsley+	0.48718	0.51282	13.4495	-1.1674	276.538	39	19	20	20	19
53	PI-Rate Bias	0.48718	0.50000	13.3818	1.4997	273.246	39	19	20	19	19
54	Thompson ATS	0.48718	0.61538	13.2821	0.4872	264.469	39	19	20	24	15
55	Thompson Average	0.48718	0.58974	13.2295	0.4505	260.960	39	19	20	23	16
56	Covers.com	0.48718	0.59459	13.2118	-1.3005	283.115	39	19	20	22	15
57	Cleanup Hitter	0.48718	0.58974	13.0541	-0.6228	266.619	39	19	20	23	16
58	System Average	0.48718	0.61538	13.0321	0.1736	259.618	39	19	20	24	15
59	Laz Index	0.48718	0.64103	13.0221	-0.2231	266.125	39	19	20	25	14
60	Stephen Kerns	0.48718	0.56410	12.6385	-0.1256	255.137	39	19	20	22	17
61	Brent Craig	0.47368	0.47368	13.3300	0.3921	260.006	38	18	20	18	20
62	Atomic Football	0.46154	0.55882	13.2821	-0.5641	275.838	39	18	21	19	15
63	DirectorOfInformation	0.46154	0.48718	13.3826	-0.2738	280.117	39	18	21	19	20
64	Pi-Rate Ratings	0.46154	0.48718	13.4977	1.5690	274.807	39	18	21	19	20
65	Dokter Entropy	0.43590	0.56410	13.1700	0.0264	257.624	39	17	22	22	17
66	Line (opening)	0.41026	0.47059	13.5513	0.1154	275.096	39	16	23	16	18
67	Regression Based Analys	0.60870	0.59091	12.5217	0.5217	247.727	23	14	9	13	9
68	Loudsound.org	0.52381	0.75000	12.4757	-0.3805	261.703	21	11	10	15	5
69	Tempo Free Gridiron	0.43478	0.40909	14.0000	-3.4783	301.735	23	10	13	9	13

* This system does not make predictions.  I make predictions for this
  system by translating it to a new scale that allows for making predictions.



Retrodictive records are found by taking the ratings from the current week
and applying them to the entire season to date.

The ideal system would be one that has the highest correct game decisions,
has the smallest mean error(deviation from the actual game result), and has
a bias of zero.

Mean Error = average[abs(prediction-actual)]

      Bias = agerage(prediction - actual)

      Std. = Standard Deviation of individual game biases